[Willie Bee]

2005 Record: 83-79, 3rd in NL East

It’s time for my annual jinxing of the Metropolitans by picking them to win their division. My friends who are Mets fans really hate me when I’ve done this in the past since I’ve been wrong several times. Part of my reasoning to pick them before was very subjective, that being I was just tired of seeing the Braves win the NL East. But while I do think Atlanta has earned the right to be called the NLE fave entering 2006, the Mets are simply stacked this season and a Queens-Bronx showdown in October is a very real possibility.

GM Omar Minaya spent a ton of money this offseason just as he did before 2005 when he added Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran via free agency. Donning Mets jerseys this winter through trades were Carlos Delgado, Paul Lo Duca and Billy Wagner. Add those five to any roster over a two winter span, and that team would be a strong postseason candidate. Adding those names to the players New York already had makes them a very, very strong contender.

The salaries Minaya and the Mets assumed made a lot of noise. But lost in the media hubbub, at least by my opinion, was how wisely Minaya spent the money. At the time they added Delgado and Wagner last November, their payroll was really just about the same as it was to start 2005. That was due to subtracting about $23 million that was spent on Mike Piazza and Mike Cameron last season. They will likely only hit somewhere in the $110-$120 million range by Opening Day, unless they take on another big contract. Even if it’s the upper end of that range, adding the players they did and only increasing the total payroll by 20% or less sure seems smart to me.

There are many who point to the Mets’ rotation as the weak link and reason why they’ll fall short again. Maybe. Martinez and Tom Glavine aren’t getting any younger and Pedro’s assorted aches and pains throughout his career could be a concern. Steve Trachsel is also getting long in the tooth and trying to come back from back surgery. Victor Zambrano would probably be bullpen bound if the club hadn’t traded Jae Seo to the Dodgers and the Mets would undoubtedly love to have Scott Kazmir back now. And the fifth starter is a bit of an unknown right now with Aaron Heilman battling for that job. Heilman is the better pitcher, no doubt. John Maine, picked up from Baltimore in the Kris Benson deal, might be the first starter called up if there is trouble.

The bullpen, except for Wagner closing, has more questions than the rotation for my money. The talent is definitely there, but getting it to all come together is the key. Duaner Sanchez is my favorite to emerge as the #1 setup arm after coming over from LA in the Seo deal. Jorge Julio has the stuff to close and a change in scenery from Baltimore could get him back in the groove. But he has proven to be a tough nut to crack, so a continuance in his downward spiral is also likely.

Juan Padilla is a good candidate for middle relief. And the Mets have a couple of sidewinders in Chad Bradford and Steve Schmoll. It might not make sense to have them both on the roster given their similar styles, and Schmoll could be Triple-A bound if he and Bradford have equal springs. Heath Bell is another guy to watch this spring. The lefty role goes to Darren Oliver or Matt Perisho.

The Mets’ offense, minus the DH obviously, could be as strong as the crosstown lineup in the Bronx. Shortstop Jose Reyes is primed to really bust loose this year at the top of the order and provides steady defense. David Wright is strong at third with a .300-25-100 RBI bat to boot. Delgado gives the Mets 30-40 HR power at first base, something they’ve been missing for a long, long time. Kaz Matsui rounds out the infield and has not made a good adjustment moving from shortstop. He was injured off-&-on in 2005, and batting eighth in this order all the Mets really want is steady defense, and if he doesn’t then New York’s right side of the infield could be brutal.

Cliff Floyd stayed healthy for the entire 2005 season and posted a career-high 34 dongs. Always a health concern, it might be asking too much to expect another 150-game season from him. Beltran nursed quad woes in 2005 and assuming that’s all behind him, he’s a good bet to get back into the upper 20s in both the home run and steals columns. He also should be more relaxed in New York this year. Xavier Nady is currently listed as the starting right fielder, but he has struggled mightily against right-handed pitching over the course of his career and hitting half the time in Shea won’t help him. Victor Diaz could see time in right, with both Tike Redman and Endy Chavez candidates for a reserve outfield spot.

Lo Duca replaces longtime catcher Piazza and won’t hit for much power. But he’s stable defensively and a tough out with exceptional contact and a keen eye in the box. Ramon Castro backs him up with excellent defense and a decent stick.

Infield reserves will likely go to Jose Valentin and Chris Woodward, with Julio Franco there to pinch hit and spell Delgado at first against tough southpaws. Amazin’ has always been a word thrown around about the Mets, and it is simply amazing that Franco is still a viable major leaguer even though he will turn 48 this August.

Manager Willie Randolph, who starts his second season on the top dugout step, predicted this will be a playoff season for New York’s NL entry. As far as I’m concerned, anything less than an NLCS stop will be a major disappointment.

Key Performer(s): Lo Duca on the field and Minaya going out in July to snare the one last piece that puts New York over the top.

Camp Question(s): Finding a fifth starter, picking through the setup candidates and deciding on a 2-hole hitter.

My Play: My math says 92 wins, just enough to get them past Atlanta in the division. If you can get o90 somewhere, take it.

[bigboydan]

the mets did improve there bulpen alot this offseason, but i still question it. i personaly don't feel they will win this division this year though.

[Willie Bee]

Juan Padilla will have to have Tommy John surgery on his right elbow and his obviously lost for the season. Look for someone like Yusaku Iriki, Bartolome Fortunato or Mitch Wylie to get a middle relief job now. All three have pitched fairly effective so far this spring.

[bigboydan]

i don't put much stock in spring training pitching WB. so needless to say it hard to project how those pitchers will do during the season.

[Willie Bee]

Pinnacle's break is 90½ with the over (-101) and under (-115).

The Greek currently sets their line a win higher at 91½ - o(+110) and u(-130).

[Willie Bee]

My Play: My math says 92 wins, just enough to get them past Atlanta in the division. If you can get o90 somewhere, take it.

On pace for 99+ wins currently, the Metropolitans could be headed towards their first 100-win season since 1988.

New York presently sits second in the NL with a 3.90 ERA and leads the Senior Circuit with 427 strikeouts (2.34 K/BB ratio). Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine are the first two names among the pitching staff to jump out at you, and for good reason since those two vets are a combined 13-3 in 22 starts with an ERA just above two-fifty. Injuries to starters Victor Zambrano and Brian Bannister had manager Willie Randolph and GM Omar Minaya scrambling with replacements like Jose Lima and young John Maine earlier. Now they have gone out and picked up Orlando Hernandez from the D-Backs in a deal, so they'll look for El Duque and Steve Trachsel to get in grooves and provide some stability behind Martinez and Glavine in the rotation.

The bullpen has been excellent so far, led by the setup arm of Duaner Sanchez (3-0, 2.10 ERA). Billy Wagner has 11 saves and is averaging over 12 Ks every nine innings. Aaron Heilman and veteran lefty Darren Oliver have also provided key middle relief outings.

The offense has power (70 HR, #2 in NL) and speed (43 SB, #3 in NL), though that has translated into just a 9th-place ranking in runs scored with 257. David Wright and Paul Lo Duca are both hitting over .300 while Los Dos Carlos, Beltran and Delgado, have popped 29 homers between them. Jose Reyes has almost half of the team's stolen bases, and still isn't hitting up to his potential. Losing Xavier Nady to the DL signals a perfect time for Cliff Floyd to finally get it in gear after a very slow start.

The Mets got off to a fast start, winning eight of their first nine and 10 of their first 12. A streak like that in the next couple of weeks would go a long way to dethroning the Braves in the NL East for the first time since seemingly around the Calvin Coolidge administration. After hosting the Giants this weekend at Shea, the Mets hit the road with stops at the Dodgers, Diamonbacks and Phillies. A homestand versus the Orioles and Reds leads up to an interleague road trip at Toronto, Boston and the Bronx. If they can get through that in good shape, they can practically coast up to the All-Star break with 4-game series at home against both the Pirates and Marlins.