[Snowball]

comments on these revealing equations I made ?
main question, is how long they stay in the game.

Roy Halladay o/u 6.5
2010 Innings Pitched: 250.2
2010 Strikeouts: 219
2010 Strikeouts per Inning: .875299
2010 Avg. Innings per Game: 250.2 IP / 33 GP = 7.5818 IPG
7.5818 IPG x 2010 SPI(.875299) = 6.636 SO (Over 6.5 )

2010 San Francisco Giants batting
Total Strikeouts: 1099
1099 SO / 162 Games = 6.7839 SPG (Over 6.5)

Tim Lincecum o/u 7.5
2010 Innings Pitched: 212.1
2010 Strikeouts: 231
2010 Strikeouts per Inning: 1.0891
2010 Avg. Innings per Game: 212.1 IP / 33 GP = 6.4272 IPG
6.4272 IPG x 2010 SPI(1.0891) = 6.9998 SO ( Under 7.5)

2010 Philadelphia Phillies batting
Total Strikeouts: 1064
1064 SO / 162 Games = 6.5679 SPG (Under 7.5)

[Pauulzcappin]

Well there's a problem. You can't compare August Lincecum with the guy that is pitching now. He was getting shelled and wasn't striking out anyone.

[Snowball]

Well there's a problem. You can't compare August Lincecum with the guy that is pitching now. He was getting shelled and wasn't striking out anyone.

True, we can't forget that, although 33 games is a solid sample.
For Lincecum it will depend on how long he stays on the mound.
You can see that if he goes just 2 outs over his average innings
per game, the prediction changes to Over based on his SO rate..
The Halladay bet appears safer. Perhaps that is why it pays (-120)
on the Over and (-110) on the Under. Both Lincecum's are (-115).

I also would feel worried about taking Lincecum under 7.5, but won't take
the Over if it's not in the math, who's to say he can keep 100% top form
vs a Philly lineup facing elimination ?
Halladay Over 6.5 is my lean.. he is more likely to go the distance as long
as he is holding the Giants bats down..
any opinions on which manager is likelier to pull the starter out sooner
assuming a well pitched game on both sides ? We already know Halladay
has the trust of Manuel to finish the 8th, 9th..

[Pauulzcappin]

Snowball about Lincecum if you wanna put it plain and simples: If you think Phils win you take him under 7.5 strikeouts because they'll need to get to him early. If you think Giants win then you take him over because he'll go at least 7 innings.

That's what I think about Lincy.

Halladay can be effective and go 7 innings getting a lot of ground balls, so I think his strikeout prop is a bit of toss up, could go either way.

[Snowball]

good points, Paul.. especially on Halladay's ground balls.
Basically to make the Overs according to the averages
Freak will have to pitch the 7th inn
Doc will have to pitch the 8th inn

what do you think of this prop is out there

# of players to throw a pitch o/u 5.5

[Snowball]

decision made, only bet I'm making on this game is

Roy Halladay Over 6.5 K's

[Snowball]

i really don't see this ending SF 4 games to 1.

add Philly ML.

[Rixsaw]

If I have to bet, I would take both overs, with a large unit on Lincecum. I don't see this series going back to Philly.