[Willie Bee]

2005 Record: 88-74, 2nd in AL West

A bunch of folks like the Athletics’ chances this season, and why not? The pitching looks strong, they added a couple of decent veterans in Frank Thomas and Milton Bradley to enhance the offense, and they have some excellent young players who could be forces for years to come. ESPN translates all of that into a preseason #2 position on their power rankings, and many other polls list Oakland as the odds-on favorite to take the AL West.

Let’s start with the two new additions. One is nicknamed Big Hurt and has had trouble staying healthy the past few years. Thomas is also moving from a more hitter-friendly park in Chicago to a tougher park for hitters in Oakland. The other player might as well carry the nickname Big Jerk. Bradley undoubtedly has the talent to be a star. But between his own rash of health woes and a personality that is as welcome to a clubhouse as sandpaper is to sunburn, he represents a sizeable risk. I’m going to take the approach of your average Missourian and put both Thomas and Bradley in the ‘Show Me’ column for the time being.

With Bradley penciled in at right field the rest of the outfield figures to be Mark Kotsay in center and possibly a platoon between Nick Swisher and Jay Payton in left. Now that he’s an over-the-hill 30-yr-old, Kotsay’s back troubles will likely limit him to 130 games or so. Payton had a good run after coming over from Boston midseason, and he can play all three OF positions. Bobby Kielty is probably the 4/5 outfielder. Swisher should also see time at 1B, especially against lefties. Swisher is the best defensive first sacker on the roster so if Payton gets off to a good start and Johnson struggles, Swisher could become the regular at first.

Mark Ellis and Bobby Crosby plug the middle of the diamond with solid defense and good offense. Ellis is unlikely to bat .316 again, and Crosby has to stay healthy to be a real force. Marc Scutaro is Mr. Utility on the diamond with Reds-Rays-Dodgers castoff Antonio Perez insurance at second and possibly 3B-SS.

Mentioned as an AL MVP candidate yearly, Eric Chavez turned in his 6th-straight 26+ HR campaign and his fourth 100+ RBI mark in the past five seasons. But the third baseman took a hit in several categories, particularly increased whiffs and decreased walks, to see his OPS drop below .800. He did play in a career-high 160 games, but doing so with a weak right shoulder is something to watch this year.

Veteran Jason Kendall is behind the plate and it’s obvious his best years offensively are behind him. He never did hit for power, and his .321 slugging mark in 2005 was a career low. But Oakland didn’t sign him to hit; they brought him in to catch and be an on-field pitching coach for the young Athletics staff. Adam Melhuse is the backup once again, and he does add some pop to the order when he’s in there.

The mound is the real strength of this team, and the reason the A’s should compete even if both Hurt and Jerk are complete busts. Barry Zito’s name is still tossed around in trade rumors, and with a contract that is up after this season those rumors could heat up around the All-Star Game, especially if Oakland is struggling. Since he is pitching for a 2007 deal with someone, I look for a solid performance from Zito this season. Even with a horrible start to 2005, Zito still managed to pare more than half a run from his ERA and almost 0.2 from his WHIP.

Rich Harden is amazingly stingy when it comes to allowing hits. I got to see him a couple of years ago during his perfect 13-inning streak for Double-A Midland, and he was a true man among boys at that level. He’s had some injuries since reaching the majors, though none have been to his throwing arm. If he makes 33+ starts, the right-handed Canadian is a threat for 20 wins. Danny Haren is in the middle of the rotation and fits well there with a nice K:BB ratio and 200+ IP ability. Joe Blanton gives the A’s another innings eater at the bottom of the rotation, though I do look for a little bit of the sophomore jinx to affect his numbers this year.

Esteban Loaiza joins his fifth club in five seasons, and I’m a little baffled by the A’s decision to sign him, especially to a 3-year deal. Two years would’ve made more sense, but that extra year probably won him over and kept him from signing with cross-bay rivals San Francisco. If everyone stays healthy, a big if, I fully expect Loaiza to be the 5th-best starter in this rotation when October rolls around.

Oakland’s bullpen is exceptional at the top and a little suspect in the middle/long-relief roles. But if the starters log the 200+ innings that they should, the A’s won’t need a deep bullpen. Huston Street had a phenomenal rookie campaign with a nasty, nasty slider that was new to hitters. It won’t be new this time, so I wouldn’t count on a sub-2.00 ERA. But he is still good for nailing down 35+ wins in the 9th inning. Setting Street up are Justin Duchscherer and Kiko Calero. Pitching out of the pen in front of that trio is a mystery at the moment.

I’m not ready to put the A’s #2 on the overall MLB chart, and the AL West looks like a 3-team dogfight to me this year. But I do agree that GM Billy Beane has built a winner for several years to come, and the Athletics should certainly be in the hunt for an AL postseason berth.

Key Performer(s): Too easy to say Thomas and Bradley, or keeping the young starters healthy. But my focus early on will be the left side of the infield, Crosby and Chavez.

Camp Question(s): Deciding on the middle relievers and the LF-1B spots.

My Play: My projections say look for about the same as 2005 when they won 88 times. Unlike others who have pitching questions, the unknowns on offense keep me from suggesting they’re a lock for 90+ wins. Pinnacle currently makes their o/u break at 89.

[bigboydan]

thomas and bradley are well known clubhouse cancers, so that could be really hurt this teams karma this year.

[newb411breaker19]

thanks for the write up willie bee

[bigboydan]

i'm suprised nobody else took a shot on Esteban Loaiza. the guy still can pitch, he just don't seem to get the run support is all.

[Willie Bee]

Pinnacle has moved up a game to 90 - o(-103); u(-113).

The Greek breaks at 89½ with the o(-120) and u(+100).

[Willie Bee]

My Play: My projections say look for about the same as 2005 when they won 88 times. Unlike others who have pitching questions, the unknowns on offense keep me from suggesting they’re a lock for 90+ wins. Pinnacle currently makes their o/u break at 89.

Like their AL West rivals the Angels, Oakland is vastly underachieving at this time. On pace to win but 73-74 games, the consensus is they are a team that will break out at any time.

The feeling that the A's will break out soon is no doubt from memories of how they stormed back in 2005 after a slow start. On the morning of June 1, 2005, Oakland sat in last of the AL West with a 19-32 record. They would go 69-42 the rest of the way, beginning with a 19-8 run in June to launch their bid for the postseason.

A big part of their problem up to now has been a slumbering offense that ranks near the bottom of the AL in AVG, OPS and runs, and escapes the AL steals cellar only because the Texas Rangers run the circuit as if they were carrying pianos on their backs. Nick Swisher is having a very solid season with a .305 average, 16 HR and 42 RBI, good enough to lead the team in all three columns. Eric Chavez is also coming up with some timely hits.

But the bulk of the order is barely hitting .250, if that. Jay Payton's .276 OB% is horrible, at best. And Mark Ellis (.226), whose strong push in the second half of 2005 was a huge part of Oakland's rebound, got off to a slow start before a recent thumb injury pushed him to the growing list of walking Oakland wounded. He is not expected back for at least another month.

The pitching staff sits fourth in the AL with a 4.50 ERA which is mildly admirable. But a 1.68 K/BB mark, which includes 189 free passes, 4th-most in the AL, doesn't really suggest a group of arms capable of cutting through opposing orders that easily. As expected, Barry Zito leads the rotation with a 4.-3 record and 3.16 ERA in his 11 starts. But only two other pitchers, Danny Haren and Joe Blanton, have managed to stay healthy enough to pitch from the rotation all season. Rich Harden got off to a 3-0 start in his five assignments before hitting the DL while Esteban Loaiza went 0-3 with an 8.35 ERA in his four appearances prior to a DL trip.

Last year's AL Rookie of the Year, Huston Street, has had a tough sophomore campaign due in part to a chest muscle injury. Justin Duchscherer was doing fine in the setup/part-time closer's role before an elbow injury sidelined him. He was initially expected back any day now, though that may have been optimistic. In fact, several hurlers --- Duchscherer, Loaiza, Harden and Joe Kennedy --- are listed as returning in 'early June.' The club definitely needs them back ASAP.

The good news for Oakland is that while they've been wallowing in another languid start, no other team in the AL West has been able to run off and hide from the rest of the division. The A's will get the Twins at home for four before heading out of town to face the Indians and Yankees. After that it's back home to face the Mariners before hitting a 5-series run through the NL West to complete their interleague play.