[Chance Harper]

MLB Playoff Odds: ALCS Betting Preview

The Texas Rangers won their first playoff series Tuesday night in Tampa Bay. Now comes the hard part: Getting past Alex Rodriguez and the defending champion New York Yankees in the ALCS.

There’s good news and bad news for the New York Yankees heading into their clash with the Texas Rangers in the American League Championship Series.

The bad news? Cliff Lee, the best big-game starting pitcher in baseball, is the Rangers’ ace.

Last season, the Yankees defeated Philadelphia in six games to win the World Series. Can you guess who was on the mound for the Phillies in both of their victories? Here’s a hint: It wasn’t Joe Blanton.

The good news for New York bettors? Lee won’t be on the hill until Game 3 on Monday night when the best-of-seven series shifts to Yankee Stadium after the first two games in Arlington.

Don’t think Lee is the best clutch arm in the game? It’s hard to argue the numbers. In seven career playoff starts, Lee is 6-0 with a 1.44 ERA.

With his complete-game, 1-run, 11-strikeout, no-walk performance in the Rangers’ 5-1 win over Tampa Bay in Game 5 of the AL Division Series at Tropicana Field on Tuesday night, Lee posted his fourth career postseason start with at least 10 whiffs to go along with no walks.

Lee has four of those performances in seven playoff outings. Three other pitchers in the history of baseball have matched Lee, but they’ve pulled off the feat only once apiece.

Because Lee (2-0, 1.13 ERA in the playoffs) threw in Game 5 against the Rays, he won’t be fully rested until Game 3 against the Yanks. Lee could pitch after three days off in Saturday afternoon’s Game 2, but he’s never gone on short rest.

Besides, Ron Washington may as well hold Lee until he needs him most – which is on the road. Texas and New York split eight meetings this season, but the Yankees cashed all three games played in the Bronx.

Expect C.J. Wilson (1-0, 0.00 ERA) to take the ball for the Rangers in Friday night’s ALCS opener at Rangers Ballpark, and he’s a great second option.

Texas won 6-0 in Game 2 against Tampa Bay with Wilson on the hill to continue its winning ways when he starts. The Rangers are an impressive 25-9 against the money line in Wilson’s 34 outings this season.

There should be decent baseball betting value in Wilson and Texas with CC Sabathia (1-0, 4.50 ERA) getting the call for Joe Girardi in Game 1.

The Yankees’ sweep of Minnesota in the ALDS allowed them to hold Sabathia out of what would have been a start on three days rest in a potential Game 4 against the Twins. Still, Sabathia was human in his start against Minny in the playoff opener to bring a 5.03 ERA in his last three starts into Game 1.

Playing the minimum against the Twins also allowed Game 2 starter Andy Pettitte (1-0, 2.57 ERA) to get some much needed rest before Saturday afternoon’s affair. Pettitte should post a good showing without having pitched since last Thursday, but I’d be less bullish with him in his second start of the ALCS.

That would likely be in a potential Game 6, which is slated for next Friday night. Even if Girardi goes with Sabathia on short rest in Game 4 on Tuesday night, he’s leaning towards using A.J. Burnett (10-15, 5.26 ERA) at some point in the series.

It’s a gamble considering how awful Burnett was down the stretch, but at least he did well against the Rangers this season with a 2.50 ERA in three starts against them. Look for Burnett in Game 4 or in next Wednesday night’s Game 5.

That leaves Phil Hughes (1-0, 0.00 ERA) to toe the rubber in Game 3 on Monday opposite Lee, and then in a Game 7 if that’s needed next Saturday night.
Expect Texas to turn to Colby Lewis (0-0, 0.00 ERA) in Game 2, with Tommy Hunter (0-1, 4.50 ERA) taking his turn in Game 4.

Oddsmakers have the Yanks listed as 150 chalk to win the ALCS outright, while the Rangers are plus 350 underdogs on the series prices board. New York is also at plus 180 to win the World Series at one outlet, putting it behind favored Philadelphia (plus 120).