Though it doesn't show on their promotional schedule, it must have been Bat Night last night in the Bronx after Boston and New York combined for 30 hits and 24 runs with the Yanks coming out on top 15-9. The Red Sox and Yankees are right back at it again today, and with the New York bullpen short Joba Chamberlain again, it will put pressure on Mike Mussina to work deep into the game.
Things rarely stay dull for very long once the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox take the field. Wednesday’s 15-9 win by the Yankees sets the table for what promises to be a heated Game 2 Thursday night at 7:05 p.m. Eastern time.
Both teams come into this game at 9-7, tied for first atop the American League East. But that 9-7 record has been good enough for 2.32 units of profit for Sox supporters. The Yankees are eating big chalk as usual at minus-0.94. Boston has been outscored 81-75 on the season, while New York has scored and given up 71 runs.
The last time these two clubs met was just last week at Fenway Park, where Boston took two out of three. We’ll see the same pitching matchup Thursday night that we saw in Game 2 of that series: Mike Mussina for the Yankees versus Josh Beckett for the Sox.
Boston came out 4-3 victors in that affair. The Sox are still the favorites in hostile territory at –135, with a total of nine runs. New York’s substandard .340 OBP is one of the reasons the under is 12-4 to start the season for the Yanks. The under is also 8-7-1 for Boston, partly due to David Ortiz hitting only one home run with a .239 OBP.
Aside from the change in venue, the Mussina-Beckett rematch will feature a different look in the Yankees’ batting order. Catcher Jose Molina strained a hamstring on Sunday; since Jorge Posada is limited to DH duties because of a bad shoulder, Chad Moeller has caught the last three games for the Bombers. The normally light-hitting veteran, who failed to make the Washington Nationals this spring, is 4-for-10 at the plate since his call-up from Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
This will be the first time in four starts Mussina will not have worked with Molina behind the plate. Last week, he gave up four runs to the Sox on eight hits in 5.2 innings and took the loss. At least he’ll be well rested after throwing just 71 pitches. Mussina has yet to go longer than six innings this year, but the 39-year-old might be pressed into duty after the Yankees used four relievers in Wednesday’s slugfest. The bullpen is already thin with Joba Chamberlain away from the team to tend to his ill father.
The Red Sox got a quality start from Beckett against the Yankees, which was a relief for Boston supporters after their ace got shelled in Toronto to start the 2008 campaign. Beckett limited the Yankees to three runs on five hits in 6.2 innings, and did it while throwing only 88 pitches. With Boston’s bullpen situation much worse than New York’s at this point, Beckett is even more likely then Mussina to go deeper into this matchup.
Boston is still without Mike Lowell (thumb), but Sean Casey is playing like his old Cincinnati self again, cranking out a .424 OPS and playing first base while Kevin Youkilis (.433 OBP) mans third for Lowell. However, Youkilis is now listed as day-to-day after fouling a pitch off his left foot on Wednesday. If he can’t play, rookie switch-hitter Jed Lowrie may be thrust into the spotlight again, although manager Terry Francona would prefer to use the natural right-hander against southpaws.
NESN has the Sox-friendly television coverage of this always-entertaining battle. Early betting reports have the Yankees with a slight edge in action at 56 percent, with the Over (9½) taking its usual grip on the betting public at 58 percent.
While many will eye the Red Sox, Yankees matchup in the Bronx tonight, the game in Cleveland between the Tigers and Indians is crucial for Justin Verlander and Fausto Carmona.
VERLANDER SHOULD EXCEL SOON
Justin Verlander’s seemingly slow start is not nearly as bad as it may look on paper. He had a two-hitter going in his last game until he mysteriously couldn’t grip the balls in the eighth inning due to them becoming “icy.” Whatever that was all about, it’s looking like he’ll settle down into a dominant groove sometime soon.
Fausto Carmona is having “mechanics” problems, and his one walk per inning pace so far this year can’t continue if he expects to have success. I’d be cautious with Carmona until he gets his problems straightened out.
ANOTHER YANKS/BOSOX OFFENSIVE EXPLOSION?
The 20 runs on the board after just five innings yesterday with Chien-Ming Wang and Clay Buchholz starting took me by surprise, to put it mildly. The total for the Beckett/Mussina showdown opened at 9 and went to 9½, and is looming low in light of yesterday. Still, pounding the Over too much may be a bit hasty.
Beckett looked good in his last start against the Yankees, and if he rounds to form in this game it will take a clunker by Mussina for the game to go over. The starting pitching edge Boston has here may not be completely accounted for with the line in the -120s.
MYSTERIOUS FLOYD SEEKING SUCCESS
White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen is very high on starter Gavin Floyd, but a lot of people have been so for a long time, and up to now Floyd has been a major flop. His two starts this year, however, have been very promising, and they both came against Detroit, a team with an undoubtedly strong lineup, even if it may be overrated. Baltimore doesn’t present as tough of a challenge.
Orioles’ starter Jeremy Guthrie comes with a lesser upside than Floyd, but is a much more known entity. Guthrie’s bad games are of the six IP, four ER variety, and his good games are of the seven IP, two ER variety. Guess what Floyd will do in this game, and there shouldn’t be any surprises anywhere else.
ATLANTA BULLPEN IS VULNERABLE
John Smoltz is one of the few pitchers where reports and rumors of injury don’t translate into poor performances. Smoltz just keeps getting outs and quality starts, and it’s impressive. He shook off shoulder problems from spring training, and is now supposedly going to focus more on getting grounders and less on getting strikeouts. Given his track record, you’ve got to trust the guy to get it done.
If we’re going to look at track records though, unfortunately Atlanta’s bullpen has one as poor as Smoltz’ is good. It will be the same old story for Atlanta in this game; get a strong start from a reliable starter, and then close your eyes and pray for however many innings the bullpen is needed. The difference between Smoltz going six innings and Smoltz going eight innings in this game is huge. The Marlins have a good lineup, and while Smoltz will be able to shut them down if he is on his game, the Marlins will be capable of making up any gap against the Braves’ relievers if they are given three innings.
PEAVY OUT FOR REVENGE
Jake Peavy is an ultra-competitive guy on the mound, and he will be facing Colorado for the first time since getting hit hard last year in the game that sent the Rockies to the post-season and the Padres home for the winter. Needless to say, Peavy remembers. He also happens to be in top form right now, and you can take it to the bank he will be gunning for a dominant performance tonight.
Jeff Francis is having his usual early-season struggles, and if you think going to PETCO will give him a break, think again. In eight career starts and 44 innings at PETCO, Francis is 3-5 with a 5.44 ERA.
Even if Francis rediscovers his lights-out form, Peavy is by all means capable of matching it. The big San Diego favorite line in the -160s is looking tempting to me right now.
LOW SCORING LIKELY IN OAKLAND
Oakland is a feeble-hitting team, and for this game I think I would feel more comfortable trying to take advantage of that with the under 9, rather than taking Seattle in the +100s range. They’ll probably be able to scrounge up a few off of Carlos Silva, and with the home filed and a strong bullpen, Oakland could easily pull this one out if it’s close at the end. I think nine runs in this game, though, is a bit of a tall order.
The Mariners hit lefties pretty well and look to sweep this short series before heading to Anaheim to meet the Angels. Side with Seattle as small road dogs vs. the A's in Oakland.
I grabbed the Seattle Mariners in a great spot last night and I will hold on again tonight. As mentioned yesterday, it has been up and down for Seattle so far this season and we look to be once again catching it in an upward turn. The Mariners had a run of 0-4 and then won four of five before losing two in row on Sunday and Monday. The Mariners have now won two straight and look to sweep this short two-game set before heading to Anaheim for another big divisional series over the weekend.
While Seattle is in an upward move, the A’s are heading down. Oakland started the season surprisingly hot and had won eight of 10 games before dropping its last two contests. The Athletics are just 2-4 at home and the offense continues to struggle which does not come as a surprise from this end. Oakland has scored a total of six runs in the last four games combined and it has scored two runs or less in seven of its last 16 games. Dating back to last season, the A’s are 4-11 in their last 15 home games.
Carlos Silva is not going to blow hitters away so facing potent offenses is usually his downfall. Well, he does not have to worry about that tonight facing Oakland as the A’s are hitting just .241 on the season including .221 at home. Despite allowing 11 hits against the Angels in his last start, Silva still tossed a quality outing as he was efficient and limited his pitch count. He has started against Oakland eight times and has posted a 3.12 ERA and 0.99 WHIP with six of those games quality starts.
Oakland sends Lenny DiNardo to the hill who will be making his second start of the season for the injured Rich Harden. It was a very solid effort against the Indians but I do not expect a repeat of that tonight. He has struggled with inconsistency since coming over from Boston and facing the Mariners again will not help matters.
DiNardo has started two games against Seattle including one last season when he allowed seven runs in just three innings. The M's are hitting .303 against lefties on the season. Play Seattle for 1½ units.
The Mets have taken the first two games of this series with the Nationals, but Nelson Figueroa does not deserve to be favored by this much over anyone. Look for the Nats to avoid the sweep at a price.
The New York Mets have taken the first two games of this series, but we are looking for the underdog Washington Nationals to avoid the sweep here.
This could be considered more of a play against Mets starter Nelson Figueroa, who does not merit this much favoritism over anyone. Yes he pitched well in his Mets debut as a starter, allowing two runs and only two hits in six innings, but keep in mind that was his first start in four years. We simply do not trust him at this big price at this point in time.
Granted, Nationals starter John Lannan got bombed by the Atlanta Braves in his last start after pitching well in his seasonal debut. However, we still consider the starting pitching matchup here a wash, which immediately makes Washington worth a look as big dogs. We expect both bullpens to get called on fairly early here, and the Nats have the deeper pen in our opinion.
The Nationals gave the Mets fits last season, in fact sweeping a three-game series here at Shea Stadium during the New Yorkers’ incredible choke at the end of the year, and we look for the Nats to salvage a game in this series at a very nice price.
Minnesota's Boof Bonser is off to a solid start to the 2008 campaign and with the Twins 13-2 at the Metrodome in this series, we'll play the Twins tonight against the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Twins close out this two-game set with the Tampa Bay Rays in Minnesota tonight behind Boof Bonser knowing he is 5-1 in his career team starts on Thursday.
Bonser is also in solid stikeout-to-walk form with 12 strikeouts and just two walks in his three starts this season. Look for Minnesota to improve to 13-2 as a host in this series behind Bonser tonight.
Baltimore has slowed after a fast start, but they're still getting solid pitching and have Jeremy Guthrie on the hill tonight. Back the Orioles when they close out the White Sox series.
Our Thursday night MLB selection is on the Baltimore Orioles at home in Camden Yards over the Chicago White Sox. After a red-hot start, the Orioles have started to cool off a bit, going 2-6 in their last eight games and falling out of first place in the AL East.
Having said that, the O's have to continue to be thrilled about their pitching thus far. Last Saturday, their talented, but inconsistent starter Daniel Cabrera pitched a gem and limited the Tampa Bay Rays to only one ER in 6.2 innings. Then on Monday, Matt Albers shut down Toronto in his first start of the year as the O's beat the Jays 4-2. And yesterday, left-hander Adam Loewen (the heir-apparent to recently-departed and fellow Canadian Erik Bedard) gave up three ER in the first inning before blanking this Chicago team over the next five innings in a tough 3-1 loss.
Now it's time for the new Baltimore ace, right-hander Jeremy Guthrie to try and build on this optimistic start to the season for the O's hurlers. After getting roughed up on opening day by the Rays, Guthrie settled down in his next two starts and gave up only four ER in his next 13.1 innings against the Rays and Mariners. Take the O's.
Justin Verlander has nightmares about pitching in Cleveland, or anywhere against the Tribe for that matter. Back Fausto Carmona and the Indians vs. the Detroit Tigers tonight.
Detroit starting pitcher Jason Verlander struggled versus the Indians last season going 1-4 in his team starts with a whopping 8.13 ERA. In five starts at Cleveland since the 2005 season, Verlander has posted a horrible 8.89 ERA and the Tigers have lost four of those five games.
Cleveland's Fausto Carmona was 3-1 in his team starts versus the Tigers in 2007 with a respectable 3.41 ERA. Carmona has shown some early control problems in 2008, but in spite of that has posted an excellent 2.20 ERA in the three starts.
The Indians are 7-1 in their last eight home games when Carmona is their starting pitcher. Play on Cleveland.
San Diego's Jake Peavy is off to a hot start and the reigning NL Cy Young winner tries to move to 4-0 today. Play the Padres tonight at home in Petco Park against the Rockies.
Jake Peavy (3-0, 1.64 ERA), the NL's reigning Cy Young Award winner, looks to continue his top tier performances as he goes for his fourth straight win to start his 2008 campaign when the Padres close out a three-game series with the visiting Rockies.
After getting buried 10-2 yesterday, the Padres will be very motivated to get some redemption, and have the edge with their ace on the hill. Note that Colorado will send Jeff Francis (0-2, 9.53) to the mound in return. Francis is fast becoming notorious for early season struggles, and has continued down that path this season, as was the case in both of his starts to date.
Final Notes & Key Trends: Francis went (1-3, 6.61 ERA in five starts) vs the Padres last year. Play on San Diego.
Game Time: 04/17/2008 10:05 PM -
By: Dave Cokin | playbook.com
Carlos Silva should give the Mariners the pitching advantage over the Athletics' Lenny DiNardo. Make your play on Seattle tonight when they close their road series against Oakland.
Seattle's Carlos Silva has some flaws to be sure, but he's generally good for six or seven innings and does well enough to give his team a chance to win the game.
The same cannot be said for Oakland's Lenny DiNardo who usually goes five or six tops, meaning much more work for the bullpen. The Mariners are off back-to-back solid wins, so I'm looking at them as a decent play to get past the A's in this series windup.
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