[rthoughton]

National LEague Wild Card Race:
San Diego (87-68)
Atlanta Braves (87-69) -0.5

San Diego -150 (Stauffer) v. Chicago Cubs +130 (Zambrano); Total: 6.5
Atlanta Braves -185 (Hanson) v. Florida Marlins +165 (Sanabia); Total: 8

As the Wild Card race in the National League comes down to the last two series of the regular season, two teams who have dominated their respective divisions for most of the year will scratch and claw to keep their playoff hopes alive. Fortunately for us gamblin’ folk, they both have very favorable home matchups in must-win series.

The Padres will welcome the Chicago Cubs, who are 15 games under .500 and just one rung up on the Buccos in the cellar of the Central. Tonight, they face off against Carlos Zambrano (9-6, 3.56) in what seems to be another pitcher’s duel at Petco. Big Z has been pretty dominant lately, and will bring his tools to the expansive park. In his last 5 outings, Carlos has given up 4 hits or less in each, and allowed a combined 3 earned in 33 innings. Zambrano had success in his last start against the Padres, as well, going 6 and allowing just 1 earned in a no decision; and we shouldn’t expect anything else tonight.
The Padres certainly have something to play for and will hope that the role of spoilers is one the Cubs aren’t very interested in. Thy will look to Tim Stauffer (5-4, 1.95) in the series opener. Stauffer is a recent convert to starter, and has had some success in that role. He got hit around a little bit in his lone road start in St. Louis, giving up 4 in 5, but has had a ton of success in his home park. He lasted 6 innings in the home starts that sandwich that rough go at Busch, allowing a combined 1 earned on 6 hits with 10 strikeouts.
I consider the under in this game a little questionable, as it seems a little low, even considering the starters and their recent success and the game’s location. Tonight at -150 in a must win game, the Padres seems to be the play here for sure.

In the National League’s East division, the Atlanta Braves, who have been reeling lately, will desperately scratch and claw against the Marlins to get themselves into the playoffs. They held a strangle hold on the NL East crown, stretching their lead to 7 games at one point in the second half, now find themselves 6 back of the Phils (whose Magic Number is 1 to clinch) and have all but conceded to the brothers from Philly. The Braves have their sights set on the Wild Card and will look to Tommy Hanson in the opener to get the game they absolutely have to have in Bobby Cox’s last week as manager.
In his last start, Hanson (10-11, 3.51) got no decision in a 0-1 loss in Philadelphia. He pitched very well, and will need to produce even more of the same against a much less formidable lineup. He will hope to even outperform his season home numbers (3.79 ERA) to solidify the victory for his mates. He got absolutely rocked in his last outing against the FIsh, giving up 6 earned on 8 hits in 5 innings. Hopefully for the Braves’ fans, he will have his best today and rectify his last start against the Marlins and give them hope that they can watch their boys as the calendar flips to October.
Alex Sanabia (5-3, 3.99) will play the role of spoiler. He has also had some struggles against the Braves, who are basically unbeatable at home. And I dont think much will change today. Both of these teams will score a few runs, and this one will have a little excitement. I like the Braves in this spot as they return home for the biggest home stand (by far) and expect the over to be reached with relative ease.
A Braves and Padres must-win parlay seems like a good way to make a little money. Both at home, and both in tight spots. Hopefully the pressure isn’t too high on these young squads and they can make us a little money down the stretch.
Best of luck.

[nah0228]

I'm with you on both. good luck

[blackbox]

Taking the Marlins here-Braves cannot hit right now.