I do really like this game. Don't really like the line movement that much but just going to give my thoughts on the game for everybody to see.
Giants/Brewers UNDER 7.5 +105 It was at at -105. Not that much line movement if that is telling.
Brewers are 14-9 UNDER when they are +125 to +150 underdogs. 9-4 UNDER in games in September. Last 7 games Brewers are 5-2 UNDER
Giants when they are home favorites of -125 to -150, they are 16-8 UNDER Giants are 9-5 UNDER in September games. 42-36 UNDER after a win. I really like the pitching match up tonight and really feel these teams fit well here for an UNDER. Been looking at this game all day and just see it happening. I would lean Brewers to win, even though Giants have been playing well.
Let's talk about the pitching match up.
Randy Wolf is going for the Brewers and he has been pitching very well. He has a 2.75 ERA his last 3 games. His last 3 have gone UNDER, him pitching good Giving up 1 run, 2 runs, and 3.
Wolf has good career number against the Giants.
WOLF is 8-5 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 3.10 and a WHIP of 1.202
MADISON BUMGARNER, going for the Giants has been pitching excellent recently. He has a .89 ERA his last 3 games. Has a 3.37 ERA in all starts in 2010. UNDER has gone 3-0 in his last 3 starts giving up 1, 0, and 1 run. He is 5-1 UNDER at home this year. 11-4 UNDER in all starts in 2010.
These 2 pitchers pitched against each other in Milwaukee earlier this year and the game went UNDER Bumgarner gave up no runs in 8 innings in that start.
There are many trends/stats below to support my play tonight.
Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 overall.
Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 on grass.
Under is 5-1-1 in Brewers last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.
Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 games following an off day.
Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 8-2 in Brewers last 10 games as a road underdog.
Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 6-2 in Brewers last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 8-3 in Brewers last 11 road games.
Under is 4-0 in Wolfs last 4 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150.
Under is 7-0-1 in Wolfs last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
Under is 4-0 in Wolfs last 4 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Under is 4-0 in Wolfs last 4 road starts.
Under is 5-1 in Wolfs last 6 starts as a road underdog.
Under is 5-1 in Wolfs last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1 in Wolfs last 5 starts on grass.
Under is 4-1-1 in Wolfs last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
Under is 4-1 in Wolfs last 5 starts overall.
Under is 4-1 in Wolfs last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1-1 in Wolfs last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Wolfs last 7 starts as an underdog
Under is 8-0 in Giants last 8 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 7-0 in Giants last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 8-1 in Giants last 9 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 5-1 in Giants last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 5-1 in Giants last 6 Friday games.
Under is 5-1 in Giants last 6 home games.
Under is 5-1 in Giants last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Under is 5-1 in Giants last 6 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 9-2 in Giants last 11 games following a win.
Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games as a home favorite.
Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
Under is 7-3 in Giants last 10 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 11-5 in Giants last 16 overall.
Under is 11-5 in Giants last 16 on grass.
Under is 4-0 in Bumgarners last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in Bumgarners last 7 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 6-1 in Bumgarners last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 6-1 in Bumgarners last 7 home starts.
Under is 5-1 in Bumgarners last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Bumgarners last 5 starts as a favorite.
Under is 4-1 in Bumgarners last 5 starts as a home favorite.
Under is 11-3 in Bumgarners last 14 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 7-2 in Bumgarners last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Under is 7-2 in Bumgarners last 9 starts on grass.
Under is 7-2 in Bumgarners last 9 starts overall.
Under is 6-2 in Bumgarners last 8 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
I think this game hits, not a strong play. I think the reason value is where it is because OVER is 6-1 in last 7 games with these 2 teams in San Fran. This won't change it for me. Giants this season are 6 games below 500 in favor of UNDER at home and I just believe in this play!
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BLOG: September 17
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