[Willie Bee]

2005 Record: 90-72, AL West Champs

With consecutive AL West titles and three playoff appearances the last four years in their pocket, including the 2002 World Series, the Los Angeles-California-Orange County-West Coast-Not Far From Malibu Angels of Anaheim are going to be favored by many to make the postseason again in 2006.

I am not among the many, at least so far as picking them to win a 3rd-consecutive AL West crown.

The pitching is sound overall and adding Jeff Weaver to the rotation in the last day or so helps. He should slide in behind Bartolo Colon and alongside John Lackey in the starting mix. Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar round out the all-righty group of starters. Santana and Escobar have to chime in with solid campaigns to make up for the nearly 400 innings lost with the departure of Jarrod Washburn and Paul Byrd.

Francisco ‘K-Rod’ Rodriguez is the closer, and the scrawny Venezuelan is among the game’s best, as long as he doesn’t break down. Setting him up is a capable crew led by Scot Shields, Brendan Donnelly and now Hector Carrasco after the signing of Weaver bumped the ever-aging Carrasco to the pen. But the Angels will continue to pay for having Esteban Yan on the roster, and not just in terms of his contract. Keeping Yan around has cost the team Bobby Jenks and Joel Peralta the past two winters.

Having Vladimir Guerrero in the middle of your lineup is a good thing, a very good thing. There’s nobody I enjoy watching swing the bat these days more than Vlad. But not having a whole lot around him in the order is not a very good thing. Darin Erstad moves back to CF with Garret Anderson in LF, and both really need rebound seasons to augment the Halos’ offense. Erstad is in the last year of his contract, and that’s always something to keep an eye on as players shoot for a new megabuck deal. Juan Rivera is the primary OF backup right now and should also see time at DH.

The middle of the infield finds Adam Kennedy and Orlando Cabrera back at second and short, respectively. Short on power specifically and offense in general, the pair is going to be pushed aside very soon by prospects Brandon Wood and Howie Kendrick.

Chone Figgins is the best offensive weapon on the team behind Guerrero, and he figures to play all over the place once again. Right now he’s being listed as the primary third baseman until the club sees if Dallas McPherson is healthy and ready to show off all of his proverbial potential.

The Angels have a pair of newcomers at first and catcher this time, and there’s a lot of buzz surrounding Casey Kotchman down at 1B. Originally signed by his own father, longtime Angels scout Tom Kotchman, Casey was a very high pick out of high school in 2001 when he was pegged as the top schoolboy player of the year by a couple of groups. He is not a huge home run threat, at least just yet, banging but 10 taters in almost 100 games in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but he has good gap power and is solid around the bag on defense. Jeff Mathis is the newcomer behind the plate, and he should battle Jose Molina for a majority of the catching duty now that Jose’s hermano Bengie bolted. Mathis has a good mitt behind the dish and could develop better-than-average power. But I’m not looking for much offense from him this season.

The Angels remind me in many ways of the Houston Astros: Good-to-great pitching and an offense that isn’t real scary once you get past Guerrero. They have some excellent talent on the horizon, but I suspect they could slide back a bit this year with a shot at the AL Wildcard their best hope.

Key Performer(s): McPherson and/or Anderson have to step up and bang 20+ homers in support of Guerrero, and Erstad needs to have a good showing in his contract season.

Camp Question(s): McPherson’s health and his ability to put his name on the 3B job, along with Kotchman proving his success at the lower levels was no fluke.

My Play: My projection says 88 wins for 2006, and with Pinnacle offering +101 on under 88.5, the Halos are a slight value in my opinion.

[BuddyBear]

Damn Willie Bee you do these write ups yourself...this is really impressive and insightful.

Anyway...i think LAA should be right around where they were last year and should be in a tight race w/Oakland similar to last year. Weaver is an enigma and he could be the X factor. I still think the guy is good enough to give them a solid 4th or 5th starter.

Some of their key players are starting to get up their in age like Anderson and Erstad they've been around for a while but still perform at a high level.

It's going to be an interesting year for the Halos but I think a season of anywhere between 85-90 wins is aobut right.

[Willie Bee]

Muchas gracias, Oso Mentioned this in another thread last night, but I'm planning to do a team a day, plus add some other baseball related info regarding the funky way-unbalanced schedules in the majors that play a role in my W-L projections.

[BuddyBear]

hopefully you'll be around for bases this summer Willie Bee.....you sure seem like you know your stuff. Looking foward to your analyses on all the teams and other baseball info.

[raiders72001]

Nice job Willie. Your posts are must read. I've been thinking about playing Oak becasue of the great SP but their hitting is even worse than Ana. I agree with your assessment that Ana hitting isn't that great.

Currently Pinny has Ana -102 and Oak +142. I'm thinking of playing both with the hopes of Tex not sneaking in there. Either that or I'm just going to play Oak.

[bigboydan]

that signing of jeff weaver doesn't help the halo's chances at all. if anything it will hurt them alot.

[Willie Bee]

One thing in the Angels' favor this year is they get 12 of 19 contests versus Yankees and ChiSox at home. The only contending team they have a real big disadvantage with on the slate is Cleveland, with 6 of the 9 Halos-Tribe games in the Indians' park.

[Willie Bee]

that signing of jeff weaver doesn't help the halo's chances at all. if anything it will hurt them alot.

The elder Weaver is not going to make anyone forget about Cy Young or even Dean Chance. But I do feel he is an improvement in the rotation over Carrasco.

Jered Weaver is still a good year or more away, and he should put his big brother to shame eventually. Joe Saunders is intriguing if only because he could give LA/Anaheim a lefty in the rotation.

[bigboydan]

Jered Weaver has much better stuff than Jeff does right now. so, what does that tell you about Jeff's pitching right now.

[BuddyBear]

Jeff's career tanked once he left DET to NY...got caught up in the hype and stuff. He was average at best in LAD but i feel this will be a positive change for him. I can see him getting 10+ wins this year easy.

[ORO1960]

if big hurt is not hurt the atheletics are best in al west.

[raiders72001]

I'd say .268 BA with 28 HRs if he plays the whole year.

[Winston Smith]

A bit of a stretch to expect him to play a full season the way he's been going, though. He's not getting any younger.

[onlooker]

I agree with BB, nice write ups Willie. Keep them coming.

I hope you stick around through out the baseball season. Id like to see your views each day on the slate of games.

[sergfro]

Jeff Weaver was a good signing..not many teams have a 5th starting with 14 wins........Since i'm from Huntington Beach (5 minutes from Ana) I'm a huge Angels fan....I still dont think Jared is ready for the big leagues..he might have better stuff than his older bro but his command isnt there yet.....In the minors one game he looked great...next he gets knocked around for 7+ runs....i'll give Jared one more year. As far as hitting...I think Angels need to give Riveria a full time job.....as much as I like erstad its time for him to go. The great thing about this team...their minor league system is STOCKED with great prospects...only means good things for the future!

[sergfro]

not to mention their bullpen....probably top 3 in the MLB again, very solid...trading for JC Romero was a great addition for the Halos...gives them a proven lefty in the bullpen that they've been missing for years. The signing of Hector Carrasco will add more depth.

[SBR_John]

Colon is money and they can hit for hits and some power. This is a good team that could win it all imo. Put me down on the OVER 88.5.

[bigboydan]

John, I think Colon will be about a .500 pitcher this year.

[sergfro]

Colon has dropped 25 pounds (thank god) so hopefully that lost weight will help him towards postseason play!

[Willie Bee]

Pinnacle now at 88; o(-105) and u(-111).

The Greek is at 87½ with o(-120) and u(+100).

[Willie Bee]

My Play: My projection says 88 wins for 2006, and with Pinnacle offering +101 on under 88.5, the Halos are a slight value in my opinion.

While I thought it would be tough for the Angels to reach the 88-win plateau, I certainly didn't think they would be on pace for a 71-72 win season as they are now.

The offense, or lack of, in Anaheim deserves most of the discredit for the team's present showing. A .254 batting average (3rd-lowest in the AL) and .702 OPS (lowest) have resulted in just 213 runs in 52 games so far. Vladimir Guerrero has been outstanding with a .325 average, 13 homers and 45 driven home. Orlando Cabrera could reach 200 hits and score 120+ plus times, and Chone Figgins might steal 60+ though his .328 OB% is a bit lackluster. But that's about all that is worth mentioning on offense to date as nobody besides Vlad is contributing any power. Youngsters Casey Kotchman and Dallas McPherson have been disappointing, but they're just part of the problem.

Pitching has held up fairly well without ace Bartolo Colon most of the season. The Halos are tied for fifth with a 4.59 ERA and rank second with 349 strikeouts. John Lackey has pitched better than his 3-3 record might indicate, a victim of little or no support in several of his starts. But Jeff Weaver (6.64 ERA, 15 HR in 11 starts) has probably pitched worse than his 3-7 record, so it evens out. His younger brother Jered was recently called up and had a strong MLB debut on the mound. But unless he can add a few long balls to the batting order, he won't be the one and only answer.

Scot Shields has been great in a setup role for Frankie Rodriguez who has, at times, looked human this season.

Winners of six of their last seven might point to the club turning things around. The offense has averaged over six runs per game in that span, and the club is entering what appears to be a rather soft span in the schedule. After finishing a home series with the Twins tonight, the Angels head to Cleveland and Tampa before coming home to face the Mariners, Royals and Padres. Now would be a good time to inch back up to .500.