St. Louis slipped back in the pack a year after winning it all, and enter this season with questions in the rotation and in the health department. Can the Cardinals rebound in 2008?
Coming off their surprising run through the 2006 postseason, St. Louis’ 2007 campaign was pretty much over after their first series of the season when the Mets swept the Cardinals at home, outscoring the Redbirds by a 20-2 margin. Many pundits in the preseason were expecting a classic Cards-Cubs battle in the NL Central, but it was not to be as injuries played a big role in St. Louis’ slide to a 78-84 record.
The best the Cardinals could do in 2007 was a game above .500, reaching that mark just three times, the last on Sep 6 when they were 69-68 – a record that was good enough to have them sitting just a game behind Chicago in the division. But the club proceeded to lose nine-straight after that, and 12 of their next 13, to fall a season-worst 70-80 after play on Sep 18.
In some ways the writing was on the wall after their very first game of the year, a 6-1 loss to New York. That would be the only appearance of the season for their ace Chris Carpenter who eventually underwent elbow reconstruction. Albert Pujols was the only regular to play in more than 133 games, with Aaron Miles second on the club at that 133-game total. The entire infield, save Pujols, spent time on the DL, as did the entire outfield.
By season’s end, Adam Wainwright was the staff ace, Braden Looper watched his solid start in April and May slip away with some horrendous outings and a trip to the DL, manager Tony La Russa had no choice but to give the ball to Kip Wells and Anthony Reyes for 46 starting assignments and tinker with his impotent offense to the point of having his pitchers – who combined to hit .208 – bat eighth instead of ninth. La Genius, er, La Russa has already said he’ll continue with that lineup strategy this season.
There were some bright spots, like Rick Ankiel’s return as an outfielder with 11 homers in 47 games and Troy Percival coming out of retirement to post a 1.80 ERA in 40 innings out of the pen. But it wasn’t anything like what the team, and the fans, expected following their 2006 World Series win.
PITCHING
Simply put, the rotation is a mess to start the season. Mark Mulder? Out until early May with shoulder issues. Matt Clement? Ditto on the shoulder and out until mid-to-late April at the earliest. Joel Pineiro? Also dealing with shoulder trouble and looking like a mid-April return for him. And Carpenter? Just starting to throw with July his best-case scenario for getting back on the mound.
Carpenter was not being counted on to open the season, but Mulder, Clement and Pineiro were. The good news is Wainwright, Looper and Kyle Lohse, recently signed to a deal, appear healthy. The bad news is Looper is being lit up this spring more often than a bong in Berkeley.
No matter how poorly he's been doing, Looper will be allowed to at least make a few starts when the season opens and if he’s still being raked, he’ll slide back to the pen as the other arms make their way off the trainer’s table. The last two spots in the rotation to start the year will probably go to Anthony Reyes and Brad Thompson, with Todd Wellemeyer also a possibility. Assuming all of the banged-up arms do make it back this season, La Russa and Dave Duncan are going to have a deep staff by the All-Star break, and new GM John Mozeliak could find himself with several candidates to deal for added depth elsewhere.
The bullpen is in much better shape right now; it would be tough to be in worse shape than the rotation. Then again, this news should be accompanied by the caveat that Jason Isringhausen is the closer and he has suffered from some back issues during camp. Wait until he’s my age, then he will really understand back issues. Actually, Izzy has managed to stay relatively healthy lately, getting into 63 games with a nifty 2.48 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in ’07. He’s averaged almost 65 games per season since 2004, and assuming he can get into the same amount of action this year, the Cards should be fine in the ninth inning.
The pen in front of Isringhausen should be better than average, perhaps even strong with the likes of Ryan Franklin, Russ Springer plus left-handers Randy Flores and Ron Villone. St. Louis also likes what they see so far this spring from Chris Perez.
OFFENSE/DEFENSE
The bats have fallen on hard times in St. Louis and steadily declined since their 2004 World Series appearance when they led the NL in runs, average and slugging plus ranked second in steals and third in homers. Last year’s Redbirds struggled to score runs (11th in the NL with 725), ranked 13th in homers (141), and 15th in steals (56). If you want someone to serve as the scapegoat for the slide, look no further than Hal McRae who was hired as the team’s hitting coach after that outstanding 2004 campaign.
The injuries to so many regular no doubt played a role in the offensive woes a year ago. And when you check out the depth chart this year, it may not be much better. Sure, Pujols can be a one-man wrecking machine on his own, but his elbow is a concern right now. It shouldn’t bother him too much when batting, but it could hurt him on defense.
Adam Kennedy will be at second after a horrible season and could replace David Eckstein at the top of the lineup versus right-handers after the shortstop took off for Toronto in the winter. The left side of the infield will be new to Cards fans with Troy Glaus at third and Cesar Izturis penciled in at short. Glaus won’t provide the defense that Scott Rolen (for whom Glaus was traded with Toronto) did, but he should offer a little more protection in the batting order. Izturis is having a bad spring and could give way to Brendan Ryan eventually. Ryan should at least stick as an infield backup, as will Aaron Miles. Josh Phelps might also serve as a backup at 1B for Pujols and emergency catcher.
Speaking of catcher, Yadier Molina is back behind the dish after inking a new four-year deal for what seems like an awful lot of money to give a career .248 hitter with 22 regular season homers. Molina is a great defender and extension of Duncan behind the plate calling the game, but his shortcomings on offense are hard to ignore. Jason LaRue was brought in to be his backup.
Not one face from last year’s Opening Day outfield has returned as Jim Edmonds, So Taguchi and Preston Wilson are gone and Juan Encarnacion has been lost for the year following eye surgery. This year's Opening Day outfield is shaping up to be Chris Duncan in left, Ankiel in center and a platoon of Ryan Ludwick and Skip Schumaker in right.
It’s hard not to root for Ankiel, even for a die-hard Astros fan like myself, and it will be interesting to see what he does if he indeed hits second in the order ahead of Pujols all season. Schumaker might supplant Kennedy in the one-spot of the order.
Brian Barton, a Rule V pick from Cleveland, and Colby Rasmus are currently battling Juan Gonzalez for the last outfielder’s job.
Key Player(s): The entire offense is on the watch list this year after their demise last season. It goes without saying the Cardinals cannot do without the services of Phat Albert for too long. Both La Russa and Duncan will also have to cobble together a starting rotation for at least the first few weeks. Wainwright and Lohse will be crucial in the early going.
Futures: The Cardinals are +650 to win the NL Central this year at 5Dimes. Considering they were a game out of the lead in early September last season with all that went wrong, that might not be a bad wager. St. Louis is listed as +1800 to win the NL Flag and +4000 to take their 11th World Series title.
TheGreek put their win total for the Cards at 78½, and I’m leaning to the Over on that one after St. Louis ran off 74, 78, 79, 80 and 83 victories in my simulations. It all depends on how soon some of those starting pitchers can come back…and Pujols’ right elbow.
Apart from Pujols, who is going to drive in runs? Glaus wonky shoulder? If Glaus and/or Pujols go down for any significant time this could be the worst lineup in baseball.
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2008 MLB Preview: St. Louis Cardinals
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