There’s a new regime in charge in Pittsburgh these days, with Neal Huntington taking over as GM and John Russell the field manager. Too bad that the end results will be the same.
Given my ever-so-slightly advanced age and slipping mind – Can't recall what I had for breakfast but remember stuff from 40 years ago just fine – it’s somewhat excusable that when I think of great Pirates teams of the past, names like Clemente, Mazeroski, Stargell, Sanguillen and Candelaria immediately come to mind. Pirates fans don’t have to go quite that far back to recall winning days, but it’s close.
Pittsburgh fans can undoubtedly remember the very last game their beloved Bucs were on a postseason field. Many can likely remember the exact date, maybe even the exact time that marked the beginning of these dark days. For the record, it was Oct 14, 1992, approximately 11:50 p.m. (ET), when Atlanta’s Sid Bream slid across home plate in Game 7 of the NLCS to give the Braves a 3-2 win. Almost all true baseball fans will recall it was a slightly off-target throw from Barry Bonds in left field that allowed the lumbering Bream to score the winner from second base. Very few remember it was an error by Pittsburgh second sacker Jose Lind that set up Atlanta’s three-run rally in the bottom of the ninth inning.
But that was then and this is now, and with the now comes the realization of yet another losing season, a streak that reached 15 consecutive years with their 68-94 mark in 2007. Pittsburgh brought in a new general manager after last season, Neal Huntington, just their 12th GM in franchise annals. And Huntington brought in a new manager to replace Jim Tracy by hiring John Russell to take over in the dugout. Russell becomes the sixth manager since that 1992 NLCS, counting Jim Leyland who managed their last postseason squad.
Russell is no stranger to the Pirates having served as an assistant coach from 2003-05. That’s a good thing since it means he’s already accustomed to the losing.
PITCHING
With a couple of exceptions, pitching was a real eyesore along the confluence of the Allegheny and Monongahela rivers last year, and it will be a priority for Russell and the team’s new pitching coach, Jeff Andrews, this year and for at least another year or so to come. The Pirates ranked 14th in the NL with a 4.93 ERA, last in hits allowed, 11th in homers surrendered and 13th in strikeouts, one of just four Senior Circuit clubs to not reach 1,000 in the K column.
Of the first four slots in the starting rotation this season, two are presently penciled in with the other two written in ink. Southpaw Tom Gorzelanny is off a solid campaign for the Bucs, but has been complaining of shoulder discomfort this spring. The other starter presently listed in pencil is Matt Morris who was obtained last year from the Giants in one of the most baffling trades I’ve seen in a while. Huntington is reportedly trying to deal Morris, and I am not baffled by that notion.
The two starters currently listed in ink are Ian Snell and Paul Maholm. Snell actually had a better season than Gorzelanny though it didn’t show in the Win column. Left-hander Maholm, now known as the pitcher who whiffed actor and comedian Billy Crystal, got off to a rough start last April, then settled into better times before two disastrous outings at the end of the season – 16 ER in 4.2 IP – inflated his ERA above 5.00.
Assuming Gorzelanny is fine, the last slot in the rotation will probably be Zach Duke’s. The southpaw has never been able to follow through on the outstanding splash he made as a rookie in 2005, and has had his ups and downs this spring.
The leading candidates at this time to step into the rotation if needed – and leading can be a very misleading term – are southpaws Sean Burnett and Phil Dumatrait along with right-hander Ty Taubenheim. Casey Fossum is also in camp, along with former starters Byung-Hyun Kim and Jaret Wright. Currently they are all being looked at for middle relief, however.
Matt Capps was a bright spot in the bullpen in ’07, eventually taking over as closer and finishing with 18 saves and 2.28 ERA in 76 appearances. Right now it looks like Damaso Marte, John Grabow and Franquelis Osoria will be the top setup/middle relief arms. Reports are that Grabow declined to have surgery on his left elbow for bone chips in the offseason, making him a good bet to find his way to the DL at some point.
The Pirates are also hoping to strike a little magic with Hector Carrasco, and Rule V pick Evan Meek looks like he will grab a bullpen job as well.
OFFENSE/DEFENSE
As bad as the pitching was last year, the offense was no better. The only major categories that the Pirates finished in the top half of the National league were doubles (No.5 with 322), triples (31, No. 8) and hit by pitch (71, No. 4), that is if you count HBP a 'major' category. New batting coach Don Long has his work cut out for him to say the least.
Let’s start in the outfield where the team’s biggest offensive weapon resides in left. Well, at least for now. Rumors are Pittsburgh has listened to offers for Jason Bay who suffered through a down year in ’07 after three strong seasons from 2004-06. For the time being, however, Bay is in left and will be counted on to be the big stick in the lineup.
Nate McLouth will be to Bay’s left in center with Xavier Nady over in right. Russell might platoon McLouth with Nyjer Morgan; so far, neither has enjoyed a good spring. Nady might also be a trade candidate. Kevin Thompson is also a candidate for a reserve OF role.
If either Bay or Nady is dealt, Pittsburgh will replace them with prospect Steven Pearce who is making the transition from first base to the outfield this spring, and will open up playing an OF corner at the Pirates’ Triple-A club in Indianapolis.
On the infield, your scorecard should read Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez, Jack Wilson and Jose Bautista around the horn from first to third. LaRoche led the club with 88 RBI after coming to the Pirates from Atlanta, and Sanchez hit over .300 with 11 HR and a club-best 77 runs scored in 2007. Jack Wilson had a nice rebound season, reaching a career-high with 12 bombs and batting .296 on the year. Bautista is in a now-or-never mode, and is capable of 20+ HR in a full season.
Infield backups will include Doug Mientkiewicz, Josh Wilson and the versatile Chris Gomez. At some point this season, especially if Bautista can’t crank it up, look for the Pirates to bring up Neil Walker for the hot corner.
Ronny Paulino and Ryan Doumit will handle the catching chores. With Paulino’s sharp decline in 2007 from his fine rookie season of 2006, Pittsburgh is reported looking to receive a strong catcher in return for any deal that would involve either Bay or Nady.
Key Player(s): It’s hard to think of anyone being a critical component on a team that seems destined to lose no fewer than 90 times this season. But if Bay could get back into form, it would certainly fuel the offense – and possibly lead to his exit from the club with a higher return coming back to Pittsburgh. I really like Snell’s chances of having a good season, so left-handers Gorzelanny and Maholm will be keys on the mound.
Futures: According to my five simulations, 90 losses or less would be a good season for the Bucs this year. They averaged 68 victories in the sim runs, and hit 100 losses in one go. The Greek apparently spied on my simulations and put their win total at 68½, with the over at -130 and the under priced +110.
Pittsburgh is a whopping +4500 to take the NL Central at 5Dimes. Considering how weak the NLC is thought of, imagine their odds in any other division. The Pirates join the Marlins at +7000 to win the National League, and the Marlins would be a much better bet at that price as far as I’m concerned. Do I really need to list their futures price to win the World Series?
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