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Facts behind the picks - 8.21 (Very large bets today)
Twins -1.5 +100 (50 units):
Twins are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Twins are 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Twins are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Twins are 13-3 in their last 16 vs. a team with a losing record.
Twins are 4-0 in Sloweys last 4 starts.
Twins are 5-1 in Sloweys last 6 Saturday starts.
Angels are 3-13 in their last 16 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Angels are 0-4 in Bells last 4 starts as a road underdog.
Angels are 2-8 in their last 10 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Angels are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings.
The Twins are having another very great season and the Angels will face again another team that dominates them this season. The Twins will have Slowey that had a no-hitter after 7 innings and got pulled out by his manager so he won't get hurt for the rest of the very important season. He has a 15 score-less innings streak at home and he will try to extend that. The great thing about this great pitcher is that he pitches deep so the sometimes shaky pen of the Twins won't have a lot of chances to destroy a win.
On the other side of the weaker starters the Angels have. Bell that is 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA in three starts this year.
In all 4 wins Slowey had in a row the Twins won by 2 runs or more, in bell loses the Angels won by 2 or more, in all the games between the teams this season the win was by 2 runs or more. So I won't take the "safe" side and I will go HUGE on the RL because there is one team I feel 110% when I bet on them, and that is the Twins.
Reds +108 (27 units):
Reds are 6-1 in Cuetos last 7 starts as an underdog.
Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games following a win.
Reds are 13-3 in their last 16 road games.
Reds are 8-2 in their last 10 during game 2 of a series.
Dodgers are 0-4 in Billingsleys last 4 starts.
Dodgers are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
The only reason I'm not pounding this game harder is because Billingsley is a very good pitcher. The good thing is that he get almost no run support. He pitched very well in all his last 4 outings and lost all four thanks to that fact. With that Cueto that is returning from suspension is easily one of the best road pitcher in the league. The Reds are playing perfect ball since they got swept at home by the Cards and taking full advantage of the fact the Cards are simply pathetic right now. I don't see how the Dodgers that can really score stop that anytime soon.
RedSox -143 (20.1 Units):
Red Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 during game 2 of a series.
Red Sox are 4-1 in Matsuzakas last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Blue Jays are 1-7 in Romeros last 8 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Red Sox are 9-0 in Matsuzakas last 9 starts vs. Blue Jays.
Blue Jays are 1-6 in Romeros last 7 starts vs. Red Sox.
The last time this exact math-up was played, I bet HUGE on the RedSox, no reason not to do the same today. We have two very good pitchers on the mound, one can't beat the other's team and one can't lose to the other's team, so who do you bet on? The one that can't lose.
Matsuzaka is 6-0 with a 3.79 ERA in nine starts against the Jays. Romero one of my favorite pitchers is 1-4 record and 8.51 ERA in seven career starts against Boston.
Simple.
Padres -114 (22.8 units):
Padres are 10-1 in their last 11 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Padres are 10-2 in their last 12 overall.
Padres are 7-0 in Correias last 7 starts vs. National League Central.
Padres are 9-1 in Correias last 10 starts as a favorite.
Padres are 13-3 in Correias last 16 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
MIL are playing well, that's true, but SD are playing almost perfect. The lose yesterday was a fluke in my eyes, and today with one of their best pitchers since the ALL-STAR game I expect for a HUGE bounce back from one of the most solid teams in the majors. To add to that Correia is very good on the road and most of Narveson wins came on the road and not at home, he also almost didn't win two outing in a row this season even though he pitches well.
I expect a full bounce back from this great team.
Today all my plays are MONSTER plays and I will have only 4 plays.
GoggsViggs gave WiseGrumpy 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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Originally Posted by LolsMcwinsey
