The White Sox and Twins have played two high-scoring affairs in Minnesota so far in this series. They'll finish the 3-game set on Thursday night with Carl Pavano and Mark Buehrle on the mound. Buehrle is 24-17 with a 4.02 ERA in 43 career starts against the Twins. This season, he has split two outings against them after giving up seven runs and 17 hits in 16 innings pitched. Michael Cuddyer (30-89), Denard Span (12-28), Delmon Young (10-27), Orlando Hudson (5-17), Jason Kubel (3-11), and Danny Valencia (1-3) all hit the lefty well. The Twins have gone Over the total in 28 of their 50 games against the rest of the division. They have gone Over in two straight games and they’ve scored at least four runs or more in 10 of their last 12 games.
Carl Pavano is 2-0 against the White Sox this season. He has given up four runs and 13 hits in 16 innings of work against Chicago. Pavano hasn't been as sharp lately giving up 26 hits in his last 19.3 innings pitched. Paul Konerko (6-23), Mark Kotsay (6-20), AJ Pierzynski (7-19), Alex Rios (5-18), Gordon Beckham (4-11), and Juan Pierre (3-10) all hit Pavano well. The White Sox have scored at least five runs in three straight games and in six of their last eight games overall. They have gone Over the total in three straight games and Over in four of their last five games as well. We expect another win from the Minnesota Twins tonight so we’ll recommend a play on the Minnesota Twins to take this game tonight.
The White Sox are now just 6-21 in their last 27 meetings with the Twins. They are also just 5-22 in their last 27 meetings in Minnesota. In addition, the Sox are only 1-5 in Buehrle's last 6 road starts vs. the Twins. Meanwhile, Minnesota ace Carl Pavano is 5-1 in his last 6 starts against Chicago, holding the Sox to 2 or fewer runs in 5 of his last 6 starts. The Twins are 7-1 in Pavano's last 8 starts, 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the American League Central and 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a favorite. The White Sox are just 5-14 in Buehrle's last 19 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Twins.
The Minnesota Twins are 38-20 at home this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Chicago White Sox who are 30-31 on the road this season. The Twins have a better than 60% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Twins' starter Carl Pavano is forecasted to have a better game than White Sox' starter Mark Buehrle. Carl Pavano has a 64% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Mark Buehrle has a 48% chance of a QS. If Carl Pavano has a quality start the Twins has a 82% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 4.6 and he has a 25% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Twins win 73%. In Mark Buehrle quality starts the White Sox win 54%. He has a 15% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 54% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Minnesota Twins is Joe Mauer who averaged 2.24 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 38% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Twins have a 80% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Chicago White Sox is Paul Konerko who averaged 1.68 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 25% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the White Sox have a 48% chance of winning.
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Minnesota for the win - 08.19
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2 unit play for me