Trevor Cahill is one of the most underrated starters in the league. Oakland's Ace is 12-5 with a 2.50 ERA and 0.981 WHIP this season, 7-2 with a 1.66 ERA at home and 2-1 with a 0.37 ERA in his last 3 starts. Andy Sonnanstine has not been able to hold a spot in Tampa Bay's rotation. Sonnanstine is 2-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in five career starts vs. Oakland.

Coming off a big series sweep against the Texas Rangers, I look for the Rays to suffer an emotional letdown Thursday as they head out to Oakland for Game 1 of a 4-game set. Tampa is just 9-27 against the money line after batting .333 or better over a 5 game span since 1997. The A's have won 15 of Cahill's 21 starts this year. The A's are 7-0 in Cahill's last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Oakland is 14-3 in Cahill's last 17 starts as a favorite. That includes an 8-1 record in Cahill's last 9 starts as a home favorite. Bet Oakland Thursday.

I won't hesitate to back Cahill tonight. The guy is 7-2 w/ an ERA of 1.66 at home this season, and his ERA is an even lower 0.37 over his last 3 starts. The Rays are just 14-38 in their last 52 meetings in Oakland, and they should continue to struggle against the A's with Sonnanstine on the hill. In fact, the Rays are 0-6 in Sonnanstine's last 6 road starts. Take the A's.

The Oakland Athletics are 36-25 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Tampa Bay Rays who are 35-22 on the road this season. The Athletics have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Athletics' starter Trevor Cahill is forecasted to have a better game than Rays' starter Andy Sonnanstine. Trevor Cahill has a 75% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Andy Sonnanstine has a 57% chance of a QS. If Trevor Cahill has a quality start the Athletics has a 74% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 2.8 and he has a 28% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Athletics win 70%. In Andy Sonnanstine quality starts the Rays win 56%. He has a 20% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 56% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Oakland Athletics is Coco Crisp who averaged 1.83 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 28% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Athletics have a 78% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Tampa Bay Rays is Evan Longoria who averaged 1.65 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 23% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and IF he has a big game the Rays have a 60% chance of winning.

OAK ML (-134)