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Facts behind the picks - 8.19
Reds -122:
Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 road games.
Reds are 4-0 in Woods last 4 road starts.
Reds are 5-0 in Woods last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Diamondbacks are 1-5 in their last 6 overall.
Reds are 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in Arizona.
Reds are 5-1 in their last 6 games with Wendelstedt behind home plate.
I had a bet on the first two games and I think this might be the best spot for the Reds and they will complete the sweep. they are hitting well, they put up runs easily, the pitching isn't perfect but it's good enough. To add to all that AZ relief is has the worst ERA in the league that means that the sec the Reds get to the pen, we can expect runs coming ...
Reds sweep.
* MONSTER play.
RedSox -147 (-1.5 +140):
Very simple bet. The RedSox won ALL 9 games against the Angels this season, they won ALL the game by 2 runs or more. They are fighting hard to get to the post-season, they are getting some players back, they should keep winning.
With all that Santana is 1-2 with a 4.61 ERA in seven starts versus Boston and Beckett's first win after being activated came against the Angels.
* MONSTER play.
Twins -149 (-1.5 +145):
Similar to the RedSox bet. The Twins own everyone, but they own the WhiteSox badly. They will have their best pitcher on the mound, Pavano which is 10-1 with a 2.63 ERA since June 9. He is also 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA in his last four starts against the White Sox. We can also be happy that we are betting against the pathetic pen that the WhiteSox has that always gives up a few runs lately. Buehrle is playing well, but the Twins beat the WhiteSox best, so they should do it again today, and today even easier than before.
* MONSTER play.
Padres -148:
Before game 1 I said the Padres will sweep the Cubs. This game is tricky. The Padres will have their best pitcher on the mound Latos but they will face some tricky stats. First of all they have NEVER swept the Cubs on the road. With that the ump favors the Cubs:
Cubs are 5-0 in Zambranos last 5 starts with Foster behind home plate.
Home team is 4-0 in Fosters last 4 games behind home plate vs. Chicago.
Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 games with Foster behind home plate.
I'm love stats, but some of them are meant to be broken, today they will. But because of all the stats my bet on Latos is a lot smaller they I wanted it to be.
Astros Vs Mets UNDER 8 +105:
Same idea like yesterday ...
Under is 7-0 in Mets last 7 overall.
Under is 5-1 in Astros last 6 overall.
Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
With that Norris is pitching very well, and both teams can't hit.
Phillies Vs Giants OVER 8 -125:
Over is 6-1 in Giants last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Over is 4-0 in Sanchezs last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
Over is 10-1-1 in Sanchezs last 12 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 7-1-1 in Sanchezs last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 13-3-1 in Sanchezs last 17 starts overall.
Over is 8-2 in Phillies last 10 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 4-1 in Hamels' last 5 starts vs. Giants.
Over is 5-1 in Vanovers last 6 games behind home plate.
Over is 4-1 in Vanovers last 5 games behind home plate vs. Philadelphia.
The Phillies are hitting very well and they put a lot of runs very easily. This ump favors the OVER big time, and most of the times these two pitchers get a lot of run support. This should go well over.
Orioles +1.5 -105:
I love finding dogs that I think that will win with a good price for the +1.5, and this is one of them. The last time the teams met, Texas got swept by the terrible O's. Today Texas will face a different team - a better one.
Texas lost ALL 5 last starts by Lewis. Even though he is pitching well, Texas are not giving him any run support, and one of the best hitting teams in the league isn't hitting very well lately. With that Texas isn't that good on the road, they weren't all season long.
They will face Matusz that pitched very well in his last two home games and will try to avoid matching the most loses in the Majors by a pitcher this season.
I love the price and believe the O's can hand Texas another loss.
Tigers +1.5 +105 Tigers +220:
I hate betting against the Yankees and I hate betting on the Tigers on the road. But this bet is part of my Alternating wins theory - Important trend - Alternating wins.
Hughes can become one of the few pitchers this season with 15 wins, but in his last 7 starts he alternated wins, today it's time for a lose.
With that Porcello (5-10, 5.53) has gone 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA in his last two outings.
The Tigers are playing bad and their pen is terrible, but the price is amazing and I love this theory.
Angela gave WiseGrumpy 5 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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Originally Posted by J-Ro11
