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Facts behind the picks - 8.16
Pirates +107:
Betting the Pirates is always scary, but they are playing an opponent that is not playing that much better than them. The Marlins lost 8 of their last 12 and the Pirates lost seven in a row and eight of eleven at home, but they didn't lose eight in a row since June.
They will have McDonalnd on the mound. He didn't pitch well in his last game, but was amazing against Colorado at home. Volstad had some good games this season but lately is giving a lot of runs on the road.
I think McDonalnd will do his job, he just needs run support which the Pirates didn't give lately. At home, against the Marlins, I like this price.
Braves Vs Dodgers UNDER 7 -105:
Under is 5-0 in Billingsleys last 5 starts overall.
Under is 5-1 in Billingsleys last 6 road starts.
Under is 4-0 in Emmels last 4 games behind home plate vs. Los Angeles.
This game has two pitchers that are pitching well and are getting no run support which is always great for an UNDER. Despite posting a 2.03 ERA and holding opponents to a .213 batting average in his last seven starts, Hanson (8-8, 3.51 ERA) is 0-3 in that span. Billingsley has a 0.96 ERA in his last three road starts.
The Dodgers are not hitting well we know that, the Braves are missing two of their best and after scoring 13 the last game, what happens most of the time is that they will score only a few if at all the next game.
Dodgers +136:
The Dodgers are terrible on the road lately and the Braves are almost perfect at home, but this game has one of the trends I follow the most - alternating wins.
So far in 7 games between the team they have altarnated wins. Today with Billingsley on the mound they can give him enough run support to win the game and split this series again. With this price against a pitcher that gets VERY poor run support they should pull it off.
Astros -108:
Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
Mets are 1-6 in Nieses last 7 starts.
Mets are 0-5 in Nieses last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 games following a win.
Astros are 9-2 in their last 11 home games.
Astros are 5-1 in Rodriguezs last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
The Mets dominated the Astros last season winning the last 5 meeting, but the Mets didn't beat the Astros six in a row since 1985. With Wandy on the mound and playing very well in general the Astros should keep rolling against the Mets that are pretty bad on the road. Wandy is 6-1 with a 1.79 ERA over his last nine outings, and the Astros like every season are playing well at the last strech.
Padres -107:
Padres are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.
Padres are 21-5 in their last 26 vs. National League Central.
Padres are 4-1 in Correias last 5 starts.
Padres are 12-3 in Correias last 15 road starts.
Padres are 6-0 in Correias last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Cubs are 1-6 in their last 7 home games.
Cubs are 0-7 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
The Padres showed everyone they are not going to destroy what they did all season long winning a very hard series against the Giants on the road. Now they will play a 4 game series against the pathetic Cubs that played well the last two games with very rare wins. The Pads that are playing very well at home and on the road should give the a reality check today after beating Timmy they should def beat Gorzelanny. With that Correia is 4-1 with a 3.60 ERA in his last five starts and pitching very well on the road. To add to all that the Cubs pen is a disaster.
* MONSTER play.
Orioles Vs Mariners UNDER 8.5 -105:
Under is 6-1-1 in Mariners last 8 games following a loss.
Under is 4-1 in Fisters last 5 starts vs. American League East.
Under is 4-0-1 in Orioles last 5 home games.
Under is 6-0 in Orioles last 6 games following a loss.
Under is 7-1 in Bergesens last 8 starts overall.
Under is 4-1 in Bergesens last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
Under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings in Baltimore.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
The Mariners can't hit to save their lives, they are TERRIBLE on the road, with the the O's are playing AMAZING in perspective to their entire season, but still are not hitting that well. Bergesen is pitching very well lately lasing 7-7-9 innings giving up 2-1-1 runs. Fister is bad but had a pretty good game his last time and if he doesn't collapse this should go well UNDER.
Orioles -129:
I didn't want to bet on the O's as favs, but with the fact they are playing very well since the staff change, there are few interesting things about this game. More than anything Fister won 2 game in a row only once in two years and that was a while back. Bergesen is playing well and can only hope the pen won't steal a win from him. Against a team with no hitting, and a pitcher that improved big time, the O's should keep their crazy run of good games.
Yankees -1.5 +105:
If there is a team I LOVE betting are the Yankees. When the Yankees play it's usually not about pitching, it's about the Yankees. If they come to play, it's over they can and will crush anyone. Lately they are VERY unstable, crushing one game, not scoring the next. They can't feel too relaxed and must start some kind of a run to make sure they finish first and ready to October.
The Yankees are facing one of the best pitchers around, but will face one of the worst road teams and probably the worst pen at the moment along with the WhiteSox. Scherzer gave up 0-3-1-2-1 in the last 5 games and got only one win, even though he lasted 6 innings or more. Shows you how bad the run support and pen most of all is.
The Yanks will have Vasquez that is def not one of the best they can offer, but their pen is a lot better, and the run support they give is a lot higher. Considering all that I think there is value betting on the Yanks and when you bet the Yanks you bet the RL.
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you can read my post on your big thread Wise, Thanks for sharing 
Originally Posted by No coincidences
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