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BLOG - LAD/ATL Under 7.5 (14-2)
Sorry for the last pick guys, tough loss to the Cubs for my Cards.
Here is my bounce back pick hopefully, in Atlanta. The Los Angeles Dodgers will be taking on the Atlanta Braves for the third and final game of their series. The first 2 games have resulted in a whopping 4 total runs for both sides, with each team coming away with a win. The hitting just has not been there for this series, with some good pitching against some lackluster hitting. I do not expect this hitting to pick up on Sunday as teams should be resting some of their starters and 2 solid pitchers going for each team. Some of this lack of hitting can be blamed on injuries, as both teams do have injuries to their starting lineups. As it stands, the Braves are currently listed at -140 favorites over the Dodgers, with the runs total being set at 7.5 runs for the game. This run total is the one I have my eye on, with the under in mind.
Jair Jurrjens will be taking the mound for the Atlanta Braves on Sunday against the Dodgers. Jurrjens has 4.16 ERA on the year, with a solid 1.26 WHIP and a 4-4 record. This start will come at home for Jurrjens, where he excels on the mound. Jurrjens currently has a stellar 1.91 ERA at home, with a 1.25 WHIP and 4-0 record. His daytime ERA is high, at 7.16 actually, but I attribute this to most of those starts coming on the road, where he has struggled this year. At home, Jurrjens has been masterful this year for the Braves. Vicente Padilla will be pitching for Dodgers, who has pitched pretty well this year for them. His ERA on the road has not been as good as his overall ERA (5.14 on the road versus 3.32 overall) but against the ailing Braves lineup, Padilla should be able to pitch somewhat deep into this game. Padilla has a stellar WHIP of only 1.00 this year and his record currently stands at 6-3. In this game, neither pitcher has faced the other team this year, which should bode well for the pitchers.
Both of these lineups are missing key components late in the season. The Braves have lost Chipper Jones and Martin Prado, 2 of their key hitters all year. Since these 2 hitters have gone down, the Braves have played their last 17 games with 12 of them going under the posted run total. The Dodgers are currently without Manny Ramirez, Rafael Furcal, and Russell Martin, all former All Stars for the Dodgers. I expect both of these pitchers to be able to get through these battered offenses with relative ease on Sunday. Also Sunday is a day that most managers like to rest their starters, so the lineups could be even more depleted for this game. This game should end in a low score, possibly around 3-2 or 4-2. Play the Under 7.5 in the Braves/Dodgers game on Sunday afternoon, before it goes down to a 7 run total as I expect it should.
Hope this is a winner guys, feel free to fade me or tail me, just trying to help you guys with some analysis
swagger gave gamble 3 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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Originally Posted by Rbyrne
