I've been working on my own run line strategy. I start with the average runs scored by each team in a matchup. Next I figure out how good the starting pitcher they're facing is by comparing the SP ERA vs. the league average ERA as a percentage. Then, I increase or decrease the offensive runs per game by that percentage accordingly.

More details on my blog post.


The strategy has been paying off for (over the last 2 days of trying it). It seems too simple though, so I'm now trying to figure out how to improve it. Any ideas? Or do you think I'm headed in the wrong direction here?