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2008 MLB Preview: Baltimore Orioles
Orioles in for one tough summer
The figures at the bottom of the strings have changed, but the puppet master remains the same in Baltimore where Peter Angelos seems intent on detroying what was a truly fine franchise.
Earth to Peter Angelos: The object is to win. What an incredible fall from grace for this once proud franchise. Many point to the 1996 ALCS and the Curse of Jeffrey Maier as when it all started to crumble. But any voodoo being spread on this team is coming from the very top of the franchise.
Orioles in for one tough summer
Let’s back up a bit. The Orioles fans I’ve come to know and respect over the years are still very proud of their team, still incredibly faithful to the Orange & Black and still hopeful the franchise can get things turned around and headed back in the right direction. But they’re also realists, and they know it’s going to be long, long season ahead.
For the better part of the last 10 years, there has been no danger of finishing last in the AL East since Tampa Bay has held firm to that slot nine of their 10 years in existence. But in 2008 it looks as if Baltimore is destined to sit in the division’s caboose for the first time since their horrible 1988 campaign that saw the O’s garner but 54 wins.
Baltimore stood a good chance of avoiding the AL East cellar until a week or so ago when they shipped staff ace Erik Bedard off to Seattle. Granted, with Bedard the Orioles were still going to struggle in 2008, and they did receive a prized young prospect in return with outfielder Adam Jones coming back to Baltimore in the deal. Andy MacPhail, the latest to come under the puppet strings of Angelos also made a nice trade with the Astros, cutting malcontent Miguel Tejada in exchange for three arms and outfielder Luke Scott.
But it’s still going to be a long season ahead, and Angelos has nobody to blame but himself.
PITCHING
With camp in its very early stages, it appears that three spots in the rotation will go to right-handers Jeremy Guthrie and Daniel Cabrera and left-hander Adam Loewen. Guthrie is off a nice 2007 in which he pitched far better than just the 7-5 record he tallied. Loewen is coming off elbow surgery last June and, if healthy, could very well step into the role of staff ace left open by the Bedard deal.
Cabrera is, well, who knows? The big Dominican has always held a lot of potential in his right hand and arm, but so far has not been able to reach said potential. He’s coming off his worst season at 9-18, 5.55, but is still just 26 and capable of becoming the pitcher he’s supposed to be.
Behind that trio it’s anyone’s guess how the rest of the rotation will play out. As things stand right now, veteran Steve Trachsel probably has an inside track on one of the two slots, if only to give youngsters like Hayden Penn, Matt Albers, Troy Patton and Garrett Olson time to develop a bit more. Albers and Patton are two of the three pitchers Baltimore acquired from Houston in the Tejada deal, and Albers is a bit further along than Patton who, like Olson, is a finesse lefty. Penn is working his way back from elbow surgery a year ago, but did flash some nice strikeout totals (along with a very ugly ERA) in the Arizona Fall League.
Radhames Liz, one of the organization’s top prospects is another option for the rotation, though it seems a very safe bet the 24-year-old will begin the year at Triple-A.
Like the rotation, the bullpen is also going to look a lot different to start the year for Baltimore. Chris Ray is not expected back before August after Tommy John surgery last summer. And Danys Baez, listed as the team’s closer at the Orioles’ MLB.com site, is also coming back from the TJ procedure. So as big of a task as manager Dave Trembley has sorting out the rotation, his job appears even tougher in the bullpen.
Trembley pulled the old mix-&-match trick when Ray and Baez were out of action by the end of last season, and he could do the same this year. Currently it appears that right-hander Chad Bradford and lefty Jamie Walker are the favorites to get the most save opportunities. George Sherrill, a left-hander who came from Seattle in the Bedard trade, is a possibility. Greg Aquino, plucked from Milwaukee via the waiver wire this winter and who notched 16 saves for the D-Backs in 2004, is yet another candidate.
Brian Burres, a southpaw who made 17 starts for Baltimore last season, and Dennis Sarfate, the third and final pitcher from the Astros in the Tejada trade, are in line for long or middle relief. And the list goes on with Esteban Yan, who was in Japan last year, Ryan Bukvich, Randor Bierd (a Rule V pick from Detroit), James Hoey and Rocky Cherry battling for a relief role for the O’s.
OFFENSE/DEFENSE
With the rumors regarding possibly dealing Brian Roberts to the Cubs a bit quiet, the offense and defense in Baltimore is shaping up fairly well right now and could be a bit of a sleeper group. Roberts is one of the better leadoff hitters in the game, and will be a huge part of the team…that is, if he stays around.
His double play partner at short should be Luis Hernandez, a 23-year-old Venezuelan originally signed by the Braves at the green age of 16 back in 2000. The switch-hitter will not wow you with the bat, but is a decent fielder.
Kevin Millar is the starting first baseman with Melvin Mora at the opposite infield corner. Both will be key to the Orioles’ run production this season and will need to combine for much more than the 31 HR and 121 RBI they accumulated in their 266 games last season. Youngster Scott Moore plus veterans Aubrey Huff and Jay Gibbons will provide backup at the infield corners as well as slot into the DH role.
Nick Markakis will be in right field for the O’s, and unless he has a sloppy spring it appears that Adam Jones will get the job in center. That leaves Jay Payton and Luke Scott fighting for left field and/or the No. 4 outfielder’s role. Markakis probably had the quietest .300-23 HR-112 RBI campaign you’ll ever see, and teamed with Jones, the pair should give Orioles fans plenty to cheer about in years to come.
Also in camp trying to find a major league job off the bench are outfielders Luis Terrero, Chris Roberson and Tike Redman, with Freddie Bynum and Brandon Fahey fighting for the utility infielder’s job.
Key Player(s): If we assume that Roberts isn’t dealt, and Adam Jones is the real deal as advertised, the most crucial spots among the position players belong to Millar and Mora. The 1B-3B combinations, whoever they may be, simply must at least reach the 175 RBI mark combined. The mound is a mess, so pinning the responsibility on any one arm is probably unfair. But either Loewen or Cabrera has to realize their potential, and Trembley must sort out his bullpen.
Futures: In my five sims, the most wins Baltimore picked up was 72, and that came in the ‘best case scenario’ with Roberts remaining on the team, Loewen and Cabrera combining for 25 wins, and the trio of Millar, Mora and Huff popping 59 HR with 223 RBI between them. I just don’t see all of that happening.
BetCris listed their O/U wins mark at 65, and the average from my sims was 67.2. BetOnLine listed the O’s at +10000 to win the World Series, and I’m not sure they’re worth even a buck at +50000.
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Originally Posted by bigboydan
