[dynamite140]

Don't bash me for this please

I use to bet heavy favorites and lost a ton that way in baseball.

Is my logic flawed here. If i bet on 2 underdogs in MLB and say one is +110 and the other is +120.

I am only looking to go 1 out of 2 to profit. Lose 2 and its bad and win both and that would be great. Losing both is not that bad because both bets were +money.

Assuming everything is equal and there is no talk about one team having a big edge over the others, or anything like that and the lines are exactly right.

Can someone tell me what are the odds of going 1-1, 0-2 and 2-0 if i were to take a team +110 and the other team +120? Is there an answer to this ? Like 60 percent you go 1-1 , 20 percent you go 0-2 and 20 percent you go 2-0?

[sapidoc]

Man, I'm a few drinks in watchin' the games, but I'm going to give this a shot anyway. hopefully someone can correct any obvious mistakes I may make....

First, let's figure out the probability of your events occurring.

Now, the lines doesn't necessarily imply probability (depending on the book, the juice, etc you could argue a slightly different percentage), but for your example I'm just going to use the implied probability based on the odds you provided.

+110 = 47.62% = 0.4762
+120 = 45.45% = 0.4545

So we have two independent events, with the likelihood of success defined by the probability above.

Now, to answer your question.

To go 0-2 (lose both games)

1 - 0.4762 = 0.5238 (for the +110)
1 - 0.4545 = 0.5455 (for the +120)

0.5238 * 0.5455 = 0.2857 = 28.57%

To go 2-0 (win both games)

0.4762 * 0.4545 = 0.2164 = 21.64%

To go 1-1 the calculation is actually a little more involved, since there are actually two ways to go 1-1:

Win +110 - Lose +120

0.4762 * 0.5455 = 0.2598 = 25.98%

Lose +100 - Win +120

0.5238 * 0.4545 = 0.2307 = 23.07%

Add these together gives us:

25.98 + 23.07 = 49.79%

NOTE: since we've calculated the outcome for 0-2 and 2-0 though, we can actually get it very easily:

100% - 28.57% - 21.64% = 49.79% (same as above)


So to summarize:

0-2 = 28.57%
2-0 = 21.64%
1-1 = 49.79%

[LolsMcwinsey]

pretty good info on a buzz man

[dynamite140]

Wow. Where did you learn this if i may ask?

[sapidoc]

I probably first started learning this stuff on my own many years ago when I started playing poker. Complemented by a university course (Probability & Statistics 101 or something like that).

But thinking back... I think probably 90% of that stuff above is covered in most high school finite math classes as I think that's where I first remember seeing it during my education.

Most of it you could probably figure out using Wikipedia & Google though (ah, the joys of the internet now a' days).

[nulldah]

The probability sapidoc is based on choosing the games randomly.

I think you need to add in another factor, your capping skills, which imo, play big factor in it.

[Whippit]

yeah, if u add in ur capping skills then chances of losing both approaches 100%

[KenardRage]

with my logic and my luck i go 0-2 about 80 percent of the time