[Mr Windy City]

First the recap, won easy yesterday with the Braves on the runline netting me another positive day. Onto Friday's card. I must let you know ahead of time I do not have stats on the umpire yet on this one, but I will add it when I get it sometime tomorrow. I'm looking at this Reds/Astros game for Friday night. We have Travis Wood going for the Reds and Bud Norris going for the Astros. Let's talk about the young kid Travis Wood first. For god's sake can the Reds get this kid a win? Since being called up to the majors on July 1st against my very own Cubs he has started 4 games. And what's his record? 0-1 with 3 No Decisions! Just unreal bad luck for this very promising young pitcher. He has not given up more than 3 runs in his starts, he has a fantastic 2.02 ERA, and he took a no hitter into the ninth inning against the Phillies and still couldn't get a win under his belt. I like the fact that he has to face this poor Houston lineup that is batting a miserable .185 their last 10 against left-handed starters. Let's move on to the Astros starter, Bud Norris. This guy has not won a major league start since May 13th of this year when he actually beat the Cardinals in a pretty impressive performance. Can't really say anything positive after that though. Bud is having a tough year, he has a 2-7 record in 13 starts with a 6.09 ERA. In his last 3 starts he has given up a total of 19 hits, 12 runs, and is 0-2 with a 4.19 ERA. As I searched more into Bud I found some interesting stats. This guy has a problem pitching at home, and an even bigger problem when pitching at night. He is 2-3 overall on the road, but 0-4 at home. When he starts on the road his ERA is 5.12. Back home in the Lone Star State it balloons to 7.36! He has yet to win a night start this year going 0-6 with an 8.00 ERA, 52 Hits, and a mind boggling 40 runs. In 38.1 innings pitched at night he has given 20 free passes, 4 long balls, and his games average 10.25 runs. How can anyone back Bud Norris? As I looked deeper into the team match up I found out that the Reds are 7-1 in their last 8 during game 1 of a series, 5-1 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game, and 25-9 in their last 34 road games vs. a team with a losing record. To make my decision even easier I found that the Reds are 50-20 in their last 70 vs. a team with a losing record, and 46-20 in their last 66 vs. National League Central. I don't really have any good news for Astro backers here it only gets worse. Astros are 10-24 in their last 34 games following an off day. Astros are 2-5 in their last 7 games as a home underdog. They are also 5-13 in their last 18 Friday games, and 3-8 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record. If you really have the nerve to do it then more power to ya, but my money is going on the Cincinnati Reds tonight. Just like yesterday, I will not lay the heavy juice, but go with the Run Line in this lopsided affair. If you are willing to drink all that juice, I suggest the sooner the better because Travis Wood is REAL, and I suspect this line will move from the medicore price it is right now at -160. On a nice little run here so I hope to continue to increase my bankroll for the upcoming football season. As always for good measure, here are a few more things that support my play today and I wish you all the best of luck!

Reds are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Houston.
Reds are 17-5 in the last 22 meetings.
Reds are 11-5 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Astros are 0-4 in Norris' last 4 home starts.
Astros are 0-4 in Norris' last 4 Friday starts.


Cincinnati Reds -1½ (+100)
Risking 200 to Win 200
A

[breathmints]

thank you..lets get it

[mighty maron]

down to -110 on some boards already...agog to see what Bodog puts this at...thanks for the insight Mr windy

[snowball22]

Great post. I like Cincy too.

[darkenergy]

Thanks MWC, great analysis as usual

[juuso]

Looks good. I'll probably bite too, but taking the ml and paying the juice.

[Regul8er]

Great write-up again Mr. WC. Bud Norris is awful, let's hope that continues tonight. How does he still have a job for an big league team?

[No coincidences]

BOL, WC!

[No coincidences]

Someone has a lot of faith in the Stros -- line went from -153 to -137 this morning. It's not the public pushing it in that direction.

[Regul8er]

YA, my book went from -160 to -146. Kinda has me scratching my head especially with Bud on the mound.

[HoulihansTX]

Someone has a lot of faith in the Stros -- line went from -153 to -137 this morning. It's not the public pushing it in that direction.

20 cent line moves on Dogs are useless, go the other way every time.

Its common sharp play for them to look for Wood, who has been pitching great, to have a bad game. It is his rookie year, and has had 4 straight quality starts. Even sharps prescribe to the "due" theory.

trust me. I have been beating the closer on dogs on the overnights. I wake up and I have a 15 cent advantage on the opener. But that team lays a dud.

[HoulihansTX]

Reds are the play, the line move on the dog is what has me on the Reds.

[No coincidences]

20 cent line moves on Dogs are useless, go the other way every time.

Its common sharp play for them to look for Wood, who has been pitching great, to have a bad game. It is his rookie year, and has had 4 straight quality starts. Even sharps prescribe to the "due" theory.

trust me. I have been beating the closer on dogs on the overnights. I wake up and I have a 15 cent advantage on the opener. But that team lays a dud.

Two other things:

1) A sharp isn't likely to lay road chalk like that. Many see the value in taking Houston at + money on a Friday night on their home field, regardless of who's pitching. And yes, Wood is probably due for a bad game at some point.

2) Sharps may be pounding the line down to fool the public, only to cash in on the lower # late. That's been happening a lot lately too. I got NYY RL at a much better price because of it about an hour before gametime last night.

[HoulihansTX]

3) Scalping

[Mr Windy City]

thanks everyone for the kind words. I'm very surprised at the movement that happened in this line, but I'm sticking with my guns. The Reds have the better starter, better bullpen, better hitting, speed, and bench. 2daBank and DarkEnergy thanks for the points!

[Glitch]

this wood kid is pretty good. goodluck

[Mr Windy City]

this wood kid is pretty good. goodluck

He's been amazing. I really like his stuff and I really don't see him having a problem with Houston. Reds offense should just drill Bud.

[thebestthereis]

one thing the astros do slightly better than puking on the baseball field with their play is hitting lefties, they are 11-11 vs them. wouldn't be taking cincy here at that price. good luck!

[aufordboy]

GL Tonight I'm also on the Reds

[chibears]

on the reds too. good luck with your play

[No coincidences]

one thing the astros do slightly better than puking on the baseball field with their play is hitting lefties, they are 11-11 vs them. wouldn't be taking cincy here at that price. good luck!

They are? Because when I looked up their stats the other day, they were 29th in BA and 30th in OPS vs. southpaws.

[Mr Windy City]

one thing the astros do slightly better than puking on the baseball field with their play is hitting lefties, they are 11-11 vs them. wouldn't be taking cincy here at that price. good luck!

Thebest, the Astros are hitting .185 against lefties in their last 10 games. I also found that they are averaging 1.32 whopping runs per game when facing a southpaw. What price should Cincy be here? And I didn't drink the juice either I took the runline.

[Mr Windy City]

They are? Because when I looked up their stats the other day, they were 29th in BA and 30th in OPS vs. southpaws.

thanks brother.

[Mr Windy City]

GL Tonight I'm also on the Reds

on the reds too. good luck with your play

let's cash it boys

[JamesBrown]

Great write up. I like the Reds today but can't decide if I want to lay it on the ML or grab the RL. Either way, hope this cashed for you.

[Mr Windy City]

Great write up. I like the Reds today but can't decide if I want to lay it on the ML or grab the RL. Either way, hope this cashed for you.

Very generous James Brown, I really appreciate it. The write-up would be even longer and more insightful IF I had my umpire stats, but I do not have them today.

[ezmoney]

Teddy from Covers on the REDS, he's been RED HOT!!!

EZ

[Mr Windy City]

Teddy from Covers on the REDS, he's been RED HOT!!!

EZ

appreciate the points ez, but I never follow touts or services. Good to hear Teddy is red hot, hopefully we are both on the right side.

[darkenergy]

Don't forget to check umpires stats. Thanks

[Mr Windy City]

Don't forget to check umpires stats. Thanks

I know I will have them up when I get them.

Here's just a little article I just read off of the Astros website:

Conceivably, Travis Wood could already have three Major League victories.
Instead, he's still searching for his first.

The Reds' rookie left-hander will vie for that elusive win on Friday night, when he opposes Astros right-hander Bud Norris in the opener of a three-game series at Minute Maid Park.

Wood has tossed three quality starts in his first four big league outings -- most notably, nine shutout innings against the Phillies on July 10, and most recently, six frames of one-run ball against the Rockies on Sunday.

Cincinnati lost both games 1-0.

"That's baseball. It's going to happen," Wood said. "We're a great-hitting team, but we're going to have our slumps when we have to scratch and claw to get a run."

Wood can only hope for a Reds offensive uprising against Norris, whom the Pirates tagged for seven runs on nine hits over 4 2/3 innings Saturday for his sixth loss in seven decisions.

[Mr Windy City]

does anyone know who the home plate umpire is for tonight's game? I cannot find it anywhere.

[Regul8er]

YES SIR MR. WC. Thats 3 straight nights I've hit with you.

Last 2 nights I actually was just on the same game, tonight I read your insightful post, and it convinced me. I coupled this with a win on the Cards/Cubs UNDER, and a push on the Padres/Pirates UNDER. Another good day for us buddy.

[HoulihansTX]

[bballs84]

Another Winner.. Stay Hot

[gushman]

Another win....on fiyyyaaa