THOUGHTS: When you lose a bet on a team in the NFL, why not just double up. A friend of mine here in Vegas, who is a big Dallas Cowboy fan bets units of $300 on each game. Remember Dallas was touted as this year’s Super Bowl winner before the season by many pundits, so this is not like betting on Buffalo. On October 10th he bet $330 to win $300 on Dallas -6.5 against Tennessee. You know the rest of the story…They have now lost 5 straight games outright. (Forgetting the point spread) This week he will be walking up to the window at the Hilton Superbook to again bet Dallas, this time at +13.5 against the New York Football Giants. His bet this time is $5,280, to get back his original $300. Expecting Dallas to play to their potential is getting very costly these days. Last time they played the Giants, their defense knocked Tony Romo out of the game. I think it’s time for him to cut his losses.
NFL WEEK #10 Plays
(2010-2011 Season):
xxx.PROCOMPGAMBLER.xxx
[237] New England Patriots +4.5 over the Pittsburgh Steelers
(Take the PATRIOTS for $77 - 3.5 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
Tom Brady was absolutely horrible last Sunday, when the Cleveland Browns took a 10-zip lead in the first five minutes of the game. It got worse, as Brady made many mistakes trying to play catch up ball, and Pats were beaten badly by the rejuvenated Brownie’s. Is Brady finished, are the Pats now crap? No, we have to give them a mulligan in a classic example of looking ahead to this week’s matchup against the Steelers. Rule one: “Thou shalt not take a lessor NFL team for granted”. Belichick and company are 6-1 ATS when losing as the favorite. It’s not often you see the Patriots lose by double-digits. When the pissed-off Pats have lost by ten-points or more they have responded by going 12-1 straight up, and since were getting +4.5 points, that’s all we need. Tom Brady is a Steeler killer, as he owns a 5-1 record against them lifetime and will be ready to redeem himself against a Pittsburgh team that suffered some major injuries last week in their offensive line.
This game could decide home field advantage when the play-offs come around in January, and Belichick will have his team ready this week to show their best. Tom Brady is an elite Quarterback, with a record of 114-38 during his sparkling career. On the other hand, Ben Roethlisberger is no slouch either with a 72-29 record, but he will have his hands full against a team he has very little luck against in the past. You don’t get many chances to get +4.5 points with one of the best teams in football…This is our TOP PLAY of the week.
[217] Houston Texans +1.5 over the Jacksonville Jaguars
(Take the TEXANS for $55 - 2.5 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
The linesmakers are readjusting the numbers on Houston...They have now lost 4 in a row against the spread, when they were they fair haired boys. This line should be Houston -3. Houston is on the verge of crumbling a great start squandered a loss here would suck away any life the have left. This is a VERY emotional game for Houston...they are in danger of an extended slide towards being auctioned off for Monopoly money.
We know how bad Jacksonville is...Remember Jack Del Rio? Crying on the sidelines in the 3RD QUARTER?? He comes off a bye...He is shitty off the bye, something like 2-5...and he is shitty anyway. Jags are 1-10 as the home favorite in the last three years. This is a big game for the Texans, and it'll be their easiest looking at the rest of their schedule before the play the Jaguars again.
I hate the public likes Houston, but I guess they cant always be wrong. The public is wrong most of the time though and it worries me when I'm on the same side (this play and the Rams down below). Actually the real thing here.. I never want to say that I know more than the guys making the lines. Those are some of the smartest people on earth...serious. All they do is design lines to promote people getting on the wrong side and they are damn good at it. They are responsible for growing bigger casinos and making bookers rich.
Atlanta Falcons -1 over the Baltimore Ravens WON THURS NIGHT
(Take the FALCONS -110 for $44 – 2 UNITS bet based on $20 units)
First of all we want to go on record that we are fans of both these teams. Both Quarterbacks are on fire these days, last week Joe Flacco was hot once again, going 20-of-27 for 266 yards and two touchdowns. The Falcon secondary is ranked very low at 31st…He will pick them apart again. The Trouble with the Ravens, they have trouble scoring when they get to the RED ZONE. Seven times they had the goal line in site, and could only score one touchdown against the Dolphins. This has always been their problem.
Matt Ryan's home-road record is legendary. He has 25 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, a 64.3 completion percentage with an 7.8 YPA, compared to 26, 18, 57.5 and 6.5 respectively on the road. Oh, did I forget he is 17-1 with home cooking and the Falcons are undefeated this year in the Dome.
The money is on the Ravens, and you know how we love betting against a wrong public. It will be hard for the Ravens to play on a short week. Atlanta is rarely in the National television spotlight…This is their chance to show they are legitimate and should be considered a for real in the Super Bowl sweepstakes. We will take the Dominate home team FALCONS that has something big to prove.
[226] Cleveland Browns +3 over the New York Jets
(Take the BROWNS for $44 - 2 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
Last week the Browns beat the Patriots by double digits, and not too long before that, our Browns had their way with the Super Bowl Champs and for some reason they are still under the radar here. We'll gladly take those points against a team that only looks good. NYJ may be 6-2 but at least two of those wins were luck based. No doubt about that.
The Browns may win this game straight up...I can't even see how money could be pouring on the Jets here. As usual the dumb public is on the wrong side heavily, and we get the points. The Browns are far superior to the Jets in one of the strongest areas in my opinion: the Red Zone. Cleveland Scores more points in the Red Zone and allows less. Browns are great at bringin' in the TD while in the red zone while the Jets usually let them go and count on falling back on FG's and letting their defenses win their games. Maybe this game goes to the trenches or maybe the Browns just shock everybody and win straight up. Either way I love it...the Browns are just like the Raiders here: a team that was shitty last season now doing pretty darn good with a pretty darn good rookie QB Colt McCoy.
[228] Carolina Panthers +7 over the Buccaneers
(Take the PANTHERS for $44 - 2 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
Why the shitty Carolina Panthers? Well the Buccs are a young good team but the shouldn't be laying 7 points to anyone. Look at their wins...3, 1, 3, 13, and 3 points (that 13 point game was against the shitty Panthers who they aren't going to take seriously here). 90% of the money is on the Buccs here...this is Pro NFL. If the Panthers have any shame they come out here like real underdogs and play like champs and forget the record. On the other hand, the Bucs just lost to Atlanta, when they came up one yard short in a big game...Now they have to get up for the shitty Panthers.
Some of my best and most regretful plays (for not playing them or not playing them strong enough) are where the numbers have them but the play makes me sick taking the Panthers makes me feel truly ill...that's how I know this is good.
Psychology handicapping at its finest: Carolina got blown out by like 25 points last week against the number. Fox is like 3-1 in this situation, and teams that get blown out bad are 76-37....When you humiliate somebody, they want to show they can play...The Panthers are 1-7...Big letdown here by the Bucs.
[231] St. Louis Rams +6 over the 49ers
(Take the RAMS for $33 - 1.5 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
Welp. We've made money on the Rams and playing against the 49ers all year long, and here that are in a match together. This play looks great Sam Bradford is having a great show this year. Bottom line: the Rams are a success story and the 49ers are a tale of woe.
The 49ers have been under the microscope...finally went to England last week, where the pressure was off, and finally won a game. Pressure is back on this week in Frisco where I'll be surprised to see much attendance at all. Last I checked, the San Francisco a-hole fans booed their home quarterback damn near right out of the park...and what did he do? He finished up the game real well, but they still lost. So do you think Smith is looking forward to playing at home? No... probably not. The Rams get 6 points here...they should easily win straight up with their slick rookie Sam Bradford on the field with something real to play for.
I was making a movie reference with my partner on this one and the Texans game. Bronx Tale: if you guys have seen it...where Chazz is on a lucky streak shooting craps...he's got a gem of a luck charm standing next to him, but then at the end of the table he has a guy whose face looks like he had a bad run in with a bear. Same thing going on here...we have two games, but we can't take em for any more because the dumb public is pouring in on the side we like.
[215] Bengals +7 over the Colts
(Take the BENGALS for $22 - 1 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
Pretty simple here: We've got one team that is wound up tight like a coil ready to pop (Cincinnati Bengals) who are on a 0-5 streak ATS and SU and getting 7 points. They'll be playing against a Colts team lead by Peyton who never seems to do well against the spread as the favorite....the do great as underdogs which I think is a psychological thing (read last week's writeup where the Colts were the top play).
[xxx] 7PT TEASE: SEA +9 and CIN +14
(Take the TEASER for $26 - 1 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
[xxx] 7PT TEASE: NWE +11.5 and CAR +14
(Take the TEASER for $26 - 1 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
Records up to date 11/13/2010:
NCAAFB 2010 Season:
Record:$3,086.00 (11/13/10) from $2,000.00 (8/26/10)
55-33-2 62.5% +54.3 Units
NFL 2010 Season:
Record: $2,374.60 (11/13/10) from $2,000.00 (8/26/10)
61-42-6 59.2% +18.73 units
NBA 2010-11 Season:
Record:$2,000.00 (11/13/10)from $2,000.00 (11/13/10)
0-0-0 +00.00 units
MLB 2010 Season:
Record:$5,972.80 (end of season) from $2000.00 (6/13/10)
+149.32 units 298.64% Gains
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
That's a good rule to follow
Originally Posted by Hayhay
10/8
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