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Sportrends plays for 5 different systems
This thread is for documenting the systems made public, and sold, by Sportrends.com
We appreciate the work done by other posters in another thread bringing this to our attention, but at this point have decided to start a thread so that we can actually document things in a public way without questions about whether or not something is a play, what the plays are / were, or why some game was a play or wasn't a play. We wish them all the best, and hope that they do well even if no one can understand how they come up with the plays which contradict the posted guidelines and for which no explanation is offered other than "figure it out yourself."
Also, since it is often difficult to get an answer from sportrends, we are taking a proactive approach and coming up with our own defintions of the filters. If anyone feels there is a good reason to deviate from the filters as they are described, please feel free to post the reasons.
The public system plays, as we best understand them, will be posted each day.
There are 3 public system plays.
1) The Moneyline (ML) plays.
http://sportrends.com/team_ml.htm
2) The Team Projected Run (TPR) plays.
http://sportrends.com/team_sabermetrics.htm
3) The Scientific Approach (SA) plays.
http://sportrends.com/team_baseball_matchup.htm
The software plays will not be posted, but a track record will be posted so that anyone wishing to see how they have done has access to how they have done. There are 2 systems from the software:
4) The Best Bets (BB) plays
5) The Pythagorem Theorem (Pythag) plays.
Here are the filters which we will be using, and an explanation of how we are applying them:
1) If a team is on a 2 game or longer losing streak, no play will be made on that team.
2) If a team which is indicated as a play is playing an opponent that is on a 2 game or longer winning streak, no play will be made on that team.
3) Never lay more than -175 on any team. A consensus line will be used in cases which are close in order to determine which plays fell inside of this filter.
4) Each pitcher in a given matchup must have pitched a minimum of 20 innings. For the plays we will list, we will be using this filter for BOTH pitchers in a given matchup. To help clarify, if the pitcher on a team we are looking to play on has pitched 20 or more innings, but is facing a pitcher who has pitched less than 20 innings, there is no play on that game.
5) For both the Moneyline (ML) and the Scientific Approach (SA) plays, the home team's line will be used. There is confusion as to whether or not the away team's line can be used or not. For the plays which we will be listing, the home team's line will always be used.
Please pay close attention to how the ML and the SA plays differ in their approach when comparing to the actual moneyline on a game.
6) For the Moneyline (ML) plays a difference of 25 cents or more AGAINST the value indicates a play. This system uses an approach which makes it seem like you are taking the WORSE value. For example, if the projected ML on a team is -130, they would be a play if the line is -155 or worse (-130 -25 = -155). The other side would be a play if the line was -105 or better (-130 + 25 = -105).
7) For the Scientific Approach (SA) plays, a difference of 25 cents or more WITH the value indicates a play. This system uses an approach which makes it seem like you are taking the BETTER value. For example, if the projected ML on a team is -130, they would be a play if the line is -105 or better (-130 +25 = -105). The other side would be a play if the line was -155 or worse (-130 - 25 = -155).
If anyone feels that we are making a mistake on a game, based on the filters we are using, PLEASE point it out. These are not our systems, they are just systems we are attempting to follow in pursuit of making a profit with MLB investing.
We are starting at the all-star break in order to have a well-definied starting point.
Good Luck,
ExHoosier10 and Bart
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Originally Posted by HoulihansTX
