#1: Seattle Mariners +140

Felix Hernandez is 2-0, with 1.69 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in his last 3 games. In the last 26.7 innings pitched he has only given up 14 hits, 5 ER, and 3 BB to 26 K's...That's a K to BB ratio of 8.7 (ridiculous!). On the year his ERA is 3.28 with a WHIP of 1.19 -- very solid numbers.

Javier Vasques has struggled early in the year but has settled down somewhat in June prior to his 5 inning, 4 ER implosion last time out. In his last 3 games he has given up 15 hits in 19 innings pitched, with 5 BB's to 11 K's (2.2 K to BB ratio). Very good #'s but not as impressive as Hernandez'.

Looking at advanced stats we see that Hernandez has a FIP of 3.38 (14th best in the league) and xFIP of 3.49 (12th best). His BABIP of .297 tell us that those #'s are right on. Vasquez has a FIP of 5.07 (5th worst in the league) with xFIP of 4.62. What's interesting is that his BABIP is .263 (14th luckiest), telling us that he has been very lucky so far to achieve his current #'s of 5.16 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. There is a lot of value here in fading Vasques tonight.

What's interesting to note is that in the last 3 games pitched, Hernandez has averaged 2 Ground Balls to every 1 Fly Ball. Vasquez' ratio of GB to FB: 0.64. If he's not striking out guys, they're usually hitting the ball deep of him and that could lead to a lot of runs scored quickly. With Seattle's offense generating 12 hits and 7 runs yesterday, I expect a similar production again tonight in a hitters park.

2nd thing to note is that the current Yankees are hitting .328 off Hernandez in his 5 starts against him. Keep in mind thought that in his last start against them, September of last year, he went 9 innings, gave up 8 hits, and only 1 ER, in complete game gem. Out of those 8 hits, 3 were by Johnny Damon and 1 was by Matsui -- neither is any longer with the team. The rest of the squad went 4 for 23, for a .174 BA. This is a good sign going into tonight's game.

#2: Texas Rangers +108

This play is a fade against Scott Kazmir. In this last 3 starts he has an ERA of 5.52 and WHIP of 1.6. In his 14.7 innings pitched he has given up 14 hits, 9 ER's and 10 BB's! (with only 10 K's). These are some attrocious #'s. At home Kazmi's ERA is 6.84 with a WHIP of 1.64 His last 3 starts at home his ERA has been over 8. Last time Kazmir faced the Rangers, was in May of this year -- he gave up 4ER's on 9 hits, in 7 innings of work.

Looking at advanced stats for Kazmir, his FIP is 5.27 and xFIP is 5.46. If he had enough innings to qualify, these #'s would put him at the absolute WORST of all starters in the league. (out of those that qualify). With a BABIP of .296, it tells us that these statistics are accurate. I expect a hot Rangers lineup to get to Kazmir early tonight. In every one of the Rangers' last 6 games, they've had double digit hits for an average of 13.33 hits per game. This is what I call being on fire offensively. In addition, the big 3 for Texas, (Hamilton, Guerrero, and Young) are lifetime .313 hitters of Kazmir.

Rangers have an advantage in the bullpen also. Their road ERA is 3.35 with WHIP of 1.29, compared to Angels' home ERA of 4.24 with WHIP of 1.55.

One note about Omar Beltre. This is his first MLB start (Angels have never seen him) and he has an ERA of 1.25 in his 5 starts for AAA-Oklahoma. He is a top prospect for the Rangers, but had trouble coming over to USA with some **** difficulties.

I expect Rangers to stay hot against one of the worst starting pitchers in the league this year, and I'm taking the PLUS odds in a heart beat.

#3: White Sox +108

This is a pure value play. Peavy has an ERA of 0.78 and WHIP of 0.74 in his last 3 starts, giving up only 12 hits in 23 innings, walking 5 while striking out 21 (> 4 K to BB ratio). He is 2-0 against KC this year, holding them to .195 BA, 11 hits in 15 innings, with 2 BB's and 14 K's (7 KK to BB ratio).

Greinke has been spectacular as well in his last 3 outings, with an ERA of 2.62 and WHIP of 0.83. He has given up 18 hits in 23 innings pitched, only 2 BB's and 23 K's.

Advanced statistics do NOT support this play, as Greinke has better FIP and xFIP stats over a course of the season.

Both pitchers have been hot lately, but the difference is that the White Sox are a hotter team with a better bullpen. This should be a pitchers' duel but at PLUS odds, it's a good investment on a team playing for a playoff spot.