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The Expert Selections
I will be writing every selection I pick in here, I hope it will be profitable for you guys. If you are tailing or fading and make money with these bets, any points are appreciated. All my previous picks (I'm tracking them since start of June) are here (CLICK!) and are updated daily (as well as pending picks are wrote in active picks). I will be writing previews for these selections in here. Good luck and best regards.
Last edited by The Expert; 06-19-10 at 08:07 AM.
Odds on this game dropped, though I was able to get it with these odds.
vs.
Soccer (World Cup, South Africa) - 19.06.2010, 16:00 CET
Single Dime (3 units): Australia - Ghana
I really think that public is overestimating first round games and there's plenty of value on teams who lost first match as well as against these, who collected three points already. In this match-up we've got two equal teams and normally, if it'd be first round, odds would be nearly the same most probably, while line pk/pk. To be honest Australia is quite a strong team, who is always underestimated because of the fact they're quite an exotic team, although they were capable of reaching 1/8 in last world cup and they ought to be solid in here as well. Of course they got trashed by Germany in first game 0-4 and actually yesterday Serbia showed that Germans ain't that good beating them 1-0, though I still think that people are making wrong statements just after one game. In fact Ghana was lucky to win against Serbia 1-0 as they were worse team on pitch but opponents made huge mistakes (red card and penalty), while Australians are big fighters, mainly playing in Great Britain. They've got still a lot of chances to qualify to next stage, especially now that in case of their win every team will have 3 points. Even draw may satisfy them because potential win in last game may give them advance. +0.5 is priced @ 1.820 and I think that's definitely too high.
3 units (Single Dime) on Australia (+0.5) (@ 1.820 Pinnacle)
i like this call today need a bounce back from the Germany game
Good call...look forward to more.
1-0 for Australia, this should be good for +0.5, hope they will be capable of holding it
Unfortunately after that penalty Australia is rather screwed...
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Soccer (World Cup, South Africa) - 19.06.2010, 20:30 CET
Single Dime (3 units): Denmark - Cameroon
After watching these two teams in first round, I'm definitely sure that Denmark is the more quality side, which should be the favorite in this do-or-die game in second round. They've lost 0-2 against Netherlands, although showed solid soccer and to be honest if not unlucky own goal in first minute of second half, this game could have been a draw in my opinion. They're well-organized, while Cameroon seems to be just opposite because even though they've got huge talent (probably have got better skilled players than rivals), they're tactically terrible and have been looking awfuly bad in 0-1 loss against average Japan. Paul Le Guen ain't able to make a real team, especially that players are quarreled each other, also because of the fact that French coach doesn't like more experienced players. What's more Eto'o seems to be unhappy with his role as well, playing withouth best effort, that's why I expect Denmark to take advantage of it. Loser of this game will be out certainly and I don't believe that solid European side like Denmark won't qualify from this quite easy group. Draw is giving both sides chances to qualify, although Cameroon can't defend (they know they won't defeat Netherlands), while Denmark shouldn't be happy with one points, as they'd have to win against Japan in last match. I suppose that pk with @ 1.870 price is good enough to be taken.
3 units (Single Dime) on Denmark (pk) (@ 1.870 Pinnacle)
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WNBA (BOK Centre, Tulsa) - 20.06.2010, 2:00 CET
Single Dime (3 units): Tulsa Shock - Minnesota LynxThese two teams have been both bad in this beginning of the season and recorder three wins so far, although Shocklost two less, having 3-7 record, while their opponents 3-9. These two teams have met yesterday in Minneapolis, where hosts were better, winning 78-67 but I suppose this result has nothing to do with today game. In fact this game was really close (Shock were leading more minutes than Lynx) and they've been generally in a bit better form of late. They're playing up-tempo this season, as their coach is well-known from liking fast pace tactic, so I think that Lynx may have bigger problems with b2b factor than their opponents. What's more I think that Shock are underestimated after yesterday loss and normal line would be more -3 or -3.5 than this short -1.0, so I'm taking them with solid @ 2.030 price.
3 units (Single Dime) on Tulsa Shock (-1.0) (@ 2.030 Pinnacle)
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MLB (Comerica Park, Detroit) - 20.06.2010, 1:05 CET
Single Dime (3 units): Detroit Tigers - Arizona Diamondbacks
I think that there's no need for long explanation in here. Tigers offense has been a lot better than Diamondbacks in whole season and also in latest games, so I have no doubts about their advantage against opponents in terms of line-up. In my opinion young and talented Rick Porcello (4-6, 6.09 ERA) is better than his outings so far in 2010 and I also have to say I rate him as a better pitcher than Edwin Jackson (3-6, 5.18 ERA), who's been struggling as well. Porcello is kinda undrrated after his horrible last start, in which he earned 8 runs in 3.1 innings but he should bounce back at home against such a mediocre batters. @ 1.763 is good enough for me to make it a Single Dime.
3 units (Single Dime) on Detroit Tigers (ML) (@ 1.763 Pinnacle)
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Soccer (World Cup, South Africa) - 20.06.2010, 13:30 CET
Single Dime (3 units): Paraguay - Slovakia
After watching these two teams in first round games I have to say that Paraguay has got a lot bigger quality on the pitch and they must be favorites to grab three points in here. Slovakia has been struggling against mediocre New Zealand and I think that after that 1-1 draw their situation in the group is extremely tough, while Paraguay was competetive against Italy and I wouldn't be surprised if they even win that game. -0.25 is solid choice because Paraguay is just the better team and I have no doubts they will take at least point in this match-up.
3 units (Single Dime) on Paraguay (-0.25) (@ 1.826 Pinnacle)
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Soccer (World Cup, South Africa) - 20.06.2010, 20:30 CET
Single Dime/Double Dime (3 units/4 units): Brasil - Côte d'IvoireUpgrading that play as a DOUBLE DIME. Also having a bet on the OVER because it's expected to be high paced match. I'm definitely not underestimating Côte d'Ivoire in this match-up as they've been rock solid against Portugal and are generally an extremely dangerous team, although I think that hype about them is too big in this World Cup, especially that they're in such a difficult group. I think that Brasil is better team than Portugal and what's more they'll be motivated to show better football than in previous 2-1 win over North Korea - I also suppose that this score has nothing to do with that game because right now it's important game and Brasil players effort will be much different. African teams are struggling in this tournament and I think this trend will continue today.4 units (Double Dime) on Brasil (-0.5) (@ 1.794 Pinnacle)
3 units (Single Dime) on OVER 2.25 GOALS (@ 1.990 Pinnacle)
Last edited by The Expert; 06-20-10 at 03:52 PM.
brazil should beat ivory coast easily
i like the brazil play...GL
brazil is better than portugal and ivory coast, so they should win today.
Paraguay cashed in, right now hope Brasil will deliver as well. One MLB play for today. What's more adding one unit on Brasil (Double Dime) and an OVER 2.25 GOALS for that game. Good luck, I'm off to watch WC game.
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MLB (Petco Park, San Diego) - 20.06.2010, 22:05 CET
Single Dime (3 units): San Diego Padres - Baltimore Orioles
Padres have been extremely solid at Petco Park this season, being 22-16 and generally it has to be said that they're the biggest positive surprise right now in 2010 year. They were considered as a mediocre side, who won't be able to get .500 record at the end of the season because of terrible line-up and hitting, although so far they've been doing well, having overall 39-29 record. Today they should have no problems because starting pitcher Jon Garland (6-5, 3.07 ERA) has been in great form, especially when pitching at home - he has 1.84 ERA there. He's been struggling in last three starts, although Orioles are by far the worst team in the league at the moment, so no troubles expected. Guests are 19-49 for the season and 8-28 on road, so adding the fact they're 2-6 in last 8 games, they won't be able of winning it most probably. Jake Arrieta (2-0, 2.77 ERA) may have solid stats so far, however he's a rookie and I expect him to struggle in near future, especially that his skills ain't too impressive as for now. Moneyline is priced quite low, so I'm trying -1.0 runline because although it's expected to be a lowscoring affair, hosts should win it comfortably.
3 units (Single Dime) on San Diego Padres (-1.0) (@ 1.935 Pinnacle)
Brasil game cashed in hugely, both Double Dime and Single Dime selections hit easily. Hope Padres will overcome 1-4 early O's lead
Padres 7-4 in top of 7th inning, hope for their win and 4-0 Sunday
4-0 on the day with Padres ending winning 9-4. Great day and lots of profit. Tracking my plays in here.
YTD: 62-7-46 (57.41%), +31.924 units (110% ROI)
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ATP (Wimbledon) - 21.06.2010, 13:00 CET
Single Dime (3 units): Carsten Ball (AUS) - Ricardas Berankis (LTU)
These two players are both coming from qualifyings round to the main draw, so they've already recognised the surface and got used to it. I must say that they're both playing in really different styles, although both tennis suits to grasscourt - Berankis is offensive-minded player, although he doesn't possess big serve or loads of power, mainly because of the fact he's quite short (173cm). Still, he admitted that he really enjoys playing on that surface and his results speaks for itself - he didn't drop a set in qualies, though faced three solid players (Ventura, Evans and Harrison). What's more he was able to win a challenger in Nottingham three weeks earlier, on very same surface, so it seems he's in rock solid form. He's one of the most talented young players in the circuit, however I expect huge problems for him in this match-up. To be honest Ball is typical big server, who's 198cm, possesses powerful serve and what's worse for returning player - he's left-hander and that's why I suppose that short Lithuanian will have all sorts of problems to get any opportunities to break his opponent. Carsten was successful in qualifyings as well and also didn't drop a set, beating Lojda, Kudryavtsev and Muller. By the way he won all three tie-breaks, which was played in here, so as they're expected also in this contest, he may be more confident playing them. He's also leading h2h 1-0 after last year extremely easy win in challenger on American hardcourts, where he defeated Ricardas 6-3 6-0. It will be definitely close game, although I'm giving slightly bigger chances to more experienced big server, so these odds are great to be taken, as he shouldn't be an underdog in my eyes.3 units (Single Dime) on Carsten Ball (ML) (@ 2.400 Pinnacle)
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ATP (Wimbledon) - 21.06.2010, 19:00 CET
Single Dime (3 units): Teimuraz Gabashvili (RUS) - Ramon Delgado (PAR)I'm really surprised that bookmakers are giving so much credit to such an old and mediocre player like Ramon Delgado. Of course he used to be solid, although he's 33 years-old player right now and he's not playing in the major events anymore. His challenger performances are quite average as well (17-10 record in 2010 year), so I'm not giving him to much of a chances to beat solid Russian. What's more he's a lucky loser in here, after being defeated by Fisher in three straight sets. On the other hand Gabashvili is surely confident after a quarter-final in Roland Garros and he will be flying high in here, especially that he had a break after that extremely successful Grand Slam (reached semi-final in Lugano next week). He's also leading h2h 1-0, though it won't be important as this game was played back to 2005 and these players are know definitely different. I suppose that any odds over @ 1.40 on Teimuraz are valuable because he's a lot better player on the court. Delgado might possess better serve and his tennis generally may be suiting for grasscourt more than baseline style of Russian, though pure class must prevail in here, especially after Gabashvili amazing run in Paris.3 units (Single Dime) on Teimuraz Gabahsvili (ML) (@ 1.699 Pinnacle)
Last edited by The Expert; 06-21-10 at 12:59 PM.
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Soccer (World Cup, South Africa) - 21.06.2010, 20:30 CET
Single Dime (3 units): Spain - Honduras
Right now after Chile beating Switzerland, Spain has to win this game as high as they can because 6 points for all three teams is the most probable scenario, while then goal difference will count. Chile won just 1-0 against Honduras, so Spain need something like 2-0 today to be sure that in case of a win over Chile they're qualified. Of course at first sight it'd be certain that -2.0 spread is the choice, although as it was visible against Switzerland, Spaniards are a bit exhausted after long season, lacking creativity and eifficience. I suppose that mediocre opponents won't be able of scoring single goal in here, especially that Spain defense is solid, while Honduras didn't have any serious chances against Chile. I expect 3-0 score at the end to be honest, although odds on -2.0 are too low, while 1-0 or 2-0 is probable. @ 1.500 ain't high and probably there isn't too much of a value, though I'd be extremely surprise if it doesn't hit at the end.3 units (Single Dime) on Spain (win/clean sheet) (@ 1.500 Pinnacle)
Last edited by The Expert; 06-21-10 at 01:14 PM.
I hope I'm helping at least one user in here with these short thoughts
2-1 on the day, although small profit as odds won were @ 1.699 and @ 1.500
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MLB (Alameda County Colliseum, Oakland) - 22.06.2010, 4:05 CET
Single Dime (3 units): Oakland Athletics - Cincinnati Reds
Generally speaking I'm always giving slight advantage to AL teams over NL teams in Interleague games, so Athletics seem to be favorites at first sight from the definition. To be honest they've got also some more important edges over today's opponents, so I suppose @ 1.820 on moneyline is great. First of all, they're with home-field advantage, where they're 21-13 this season, which is fairly good record, although they've been struggling hugely in latest game. They're only 2-7 in last 9 matches, having quite of an offensive slump, although I think that this opening game of home series will be great for a bounce back (all these nine games were on road, where they're a lot worse). Their yesterday 3-2 win over Cardinals was important for their confidence, so as they also know about horrible Reds current form, they'll try to sweep them and take advantage of two consecutive easy series in Oakland. At the moment they're 34-37 and are 8 games back to Rangers, so wins over Reds and Pirates are really needed. Truly speaking guests are 1-6 in last 7 games and have got three consecutive losses, after being swept by Mariners. It was an extremely disappointing and embarrasing series because they scored only 1 run in 3 games, losing 0-1 twice. That must have been irritating for the team and I doubt they'll be hitting a lot better overnight, especially that Gio Gonzalez (6-5, 4.21 ERA) is quite solid, though had mediocre last two starts. On the other hand I think that Mike Leake (5-1, 3.02 ERA) is really overestimated because he isn't a superior pitcher right now, while his inexperienced as a rookie is visible on the mound. He was lucky in the beginning of the season, however his last two starts showed that he ain't consistent - he allowed 10 earned runs in 10.1 innings against Giants and Dodgers, pitching more walks than strike-outs. 3 homeruns and 20 hits in these two starts is enough for me to have a belief that A's will produce some runs today. Something like 5-2 is expected in here for me.
3 units (Single Dime) on Oakland Athletics (ML) (@ 1.820 Pinnacle)
YTD: 64-7-47, (57,66%), +32.521 (109% ROI)
(A's pick pending)
does this record include the 35 units you lost in just one day in may?Originally Posted by The Expert
the Oaklnad a s game really tight right now
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ATP (Wimbledon) - 22.06.2010, 13:00 CET
Single Dime (3 units): Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (ESP) - Tobias Kamke (GER)Of course it's always difficult to risk on straight sets win in Grand Slams, where three sets have to be won and it's the case especially in Wimbledon, where breaking opponent's serve is the toughest one, although I suppose that there's plenty of a value on Garcia-Lopez to win this game in comfortable fashion today. First of all it has to be said that he ain't typical Spaniard because he prefers faster surfaces over claycourts - mainly because of the fact he's offensive-minded player and possesses quite a solid serve. In fact he's consistent over last period, being inside the Top50 for quite a long time, so I think that he's trustful against challenger-type rivals. He showed great form in Eastbourne, where he reached final after defeating Gicquel, Fognini, Benneteau and Istomin, so although he may be a bit tired, I believe that two days off were enough to be fit in this contest. Guillermo seems to be dominant on grasscourt generally as he was also really successful in 2009, having 6-3 record, passing first round of Wimbledon easily (then had to play against Federer). On the other hand Kamke may be decent in challenger tour, where he's 26-14 in 2010 year, although he has simply no experience in the circuit, being 1-3 in entire career. He's definitely in top form as for his standards because he reached challenger final in Furth three weeks ago (on claycourts) and passed through qualifyings in here, beating Decoud, Kuznetsov and Levine but it's surely still not enough to keep the game close against Garcia-Lopez. He's 180cm and his serve ain't really dominant, so with opponent's experience I predict something like 6-4 6-3 6-4 in here.3 units (Single Dime) on Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (-2.5 sets) (@ 2.950 Pinnacle)
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ATP (Wimbledon) – 22.06.2010, 15:00 CET
Single Dime (3 units): Florent Serra (FRA) – Simon Greul (GER)I’m definitely surprised that bookmakers set German to be the favorite because although these two seems to be equallly good right now, I see one but really important edge for the Frenchman. I have to say that neither Serra nor Greul enjoys playing on grasscourt because they’re more or less claycourters, withouth big serve or offensive weapons. Their form is similar as well and that’s why they’re neighbours in the ATP rankings – 62nd and 64th places (in Simon favor). This X-factor will be definitely experience in the circuit, which is by far bigger for the Serra as he’s 109-133 in his career, while Greul is 38-63 although both are 29 years-old. German used to be a challenger player for whole career until 2009 year, which was a breakthrough for him, although I still think that he’s struggling outside of claycourts – playing on grasscourts will be even more difficult because moving on it is tough, while he played just eight games on that surface in his whole career (even including futures). On the contrary Serra has already twenty matches played. I think that there’s an overestimation over Greul solid results before Wimbledon (2-2 record) and two first-round Serra’s losses because Grand Slam is a different case, where Florent should have an upper hand. Their h2h won’t be important because the only Serra’s win (in the only meeting) is back to 2003, though I feel that the trend will continue.3 units (Single Dime) on Florent Serra (ML) (@ 2.170 Pinnacle)
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ATP (Wimbledon) – 22.06.2010, 15:00 CET
Single Dime (3 units): Jarkko Nieminen (FIN) - Stefan Koubek (AUT)I recognize this match-up to be one of the best in terms of betting because however Nieminen seems to be a huge favorite, bookmakers aren't giving too much of a credit for him and that's why there're @ 1.450 odds available on his outright win. Generally speaking he's been really rock solid lately and I have to say that he was one of the unluckiest players in the tour in last weeks. First of all he had to play against Roddick in first round of Roland Garros, where he lost after thrilling five-setter. Then he faced Stepanke in challenger quarter-final, to be drawn against Federer in his first grasscourt appereance this season. That's bad, especially considering the fact he played a solid grasscourter Becker next week, being defeated in three-setter. Theoretically his results are extremely bad and the fact is he lost six conecutive first round in ATP tour (excluding challengers), although as I was watching him couple of times in that period, I have to say there's nothing wrong with his form. He should be definitely too good for an old player like Koubek, who's got only experience as a real weapon right now, facing Top100 players. He lost three matches in a row before Wimbledon (two in challengers and one in Roland Garros qualifyings), so it wasn't surprise he got defeated in last round of this tournament qualifyings, facing Mahut. Still, he was lucky enought to take lucky loser spot, although I suppose he won't take advantage of it, having an early first round exit. Austrian player is trailing 1-4 in h2h against Finnish, so as he's 8-18 on grasscourt in his lifetime, I'm definitely going against him in this match-up. -4.5 games spread isn't high, while @ 1.980 looks perfect, so I'm taking Nieminen with this quite short handicap as for best-of-five game.
3 units (Single Dime) on Jarkko Nieminen (-4.5 games) (@ 1.980 Pinnacle)
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ATP (Wimbledon) – 22.06.2010, 15:00 CET
Single Dime (3 units): Thomaz Bellucci (BRA) - Ricardo Mello (BRA)These two players are compatriots and surely know each other well, although I personally doubt that this one may be a close contest because Bellucci seems to be a huge favorite to advance to the second round. Theoretically both are claycourters, although seven years younger player is already a lot better and looks like an all-rounder, being capable of playing powerful tennis on hardcourts - generally speaking his tennis is offensive, his forehand is hitting loads of winners, while his serve is rock solid as well. 2010 year has been already extremely successful for him because he's 24-13 and inside the Top25, which is a big achievement, especially that he's still quite young, being 23 years-old. He's got no experience on grasscourt at all, which might be scary, though he's already proven he's able to change surfaces from slow to fast easily and he had lots of time to prepare to this Grand Slam as he had a month break after Roland Garros. On the other hand Mello seems to be more of a claycourter, though possessing strong, left-handed serve. Today it won't be as successful as always because Bellucci is left-hander as well. For me he's typical challenger journeyman, without any impact to the circuit. He's 48-67 in the tour for his whole career, being 5-10 since 2009, so adding the fact he lost last three consecutive first round in ATP events (against Cilic, Tavares and Anderson), he cannot be rated as a dangerous opponent for his fellow. The odds are like that most probably because of Bellucci's lack of playing on the surface and 1-1 h2h with Mello's win this season but I doubt it'll be important as claycourts and grasscourts are a lot different surfaces.3 units (Single Dime) on Thomaz Bellucci (-5 games) (@ 2.050 Pinnacle)
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Soccer (World Cup, South Africa) - 22.06.2010, 16:00 CET
Single Dime (3 units): Argentina - Greece
3 units (Single Dime) on Argentina (-1.0) (@ 2.180 Pinnacle)
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Soccer (World Cup, South Africa) - 22.06.2010, 20:30 CET
Double Dime (4 units): France - South Africa
4 units (Double Dime) on France (pk) (@ 1.704 Pinnacle)
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