[The Expert]

17.05.2010, 18:37 CET (10 units)
Toronto Blue Jays - Minnesota Twins
The Twins started this season really well, being the best team in AL Central with 24-14 record but they lost some momentum of late, being 3-3 in last six games. Of course they faced Yankees away from home during that time and although it's surely not a struggling mode, they've been stopped a bit. On the other hand Blue Jays are playing as good as their today's opponents so far, having 23-17 record so far, which is the biggest surprise in 2010 year so far because they were considered as probably the worst team in AL East before the season. They're in superb form right now, being 11-4 in last fifteen games, so after yesterday 3-8 loss, they'll be fired up to split the series. Their bats are red-hot, they combined 27 runs in three-games series against Rangers, so I think that experienced Carl Pavano (4-3, 3.30 ERA) might have loads of problems. He's been rock solid of late, allowing max 2 runs in last four starts (lasted at least 7 innings in each) but he didn't face powerful offenses, while Blue Jays seems to be hitting hard now. Of course Twins line-up is really strong and it was visible yesterday, although they may have really troubles because hosts starting pitcher Shaun Marcum (2-1, 2.78 ERA) started 2010 season extremely well. He's been pitching in brilliant way during May, posting 1.71 ERA with 2-0 W/L ratio, so adding the fact he's coming from a shutout 7 innings against Red Sox, another good performance is expected. @ 1.830 price is good enough to be taken, having Marcum on the mound, hot bats and home-field advantage.
Toronto Blue Jays (ML) (@ 1.833 Pinnacle)

[lacesout]

Like the Jays today, good luck!

[The Expert]

17.05.2010, 19:10 CET (10 units)
Detroit Tigers - Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are really struggling in the beginning of the season, having poor 15-22 record, especially that their expectations are quite high, including hopes for the postseason, so I doubt that with 3-6 record in last nine games they'll win this game, especially that they're starting with Freddy Garcia (2-2, 4.75 ERA), who's rather a fading material, besides average statistics so far. After a serious injury he's just mediocre and I'd be surprise if he finishes this season with ERA lower than five. He was generally quite lucky in his last two starts, giving up only 4 earned runs with 19 hits allowed. On the other hand Tigers are rock solid so far, having 22-16 record, so after winning two consecutive games against Red Sox, their form seems to be more than ok, as well as bats are working properly. Of course Rick Porcello (3-3, 6.08 ERA) is inexperienced and has been struggling so far, though I expect him to improve, especially with home crowd help (he's 3.86 ERA at home). He was really good in latest starts, posting 2.77 ERA in May (2-0 W/L ratio), so another win is on the track in my opinion. @ 1.694 is good enough to be taken, no matter the fact it looks like a low price.
Detroit Tigers (ML) (@ 1.694 Pinnacle)

[encephalization]

On Jays as well and it started out good..

Fully agree with you about Garcia, he is something to fade. BOL tonight!

[The Expert]

I hope that early games will deliver two winners today. Generally speaking I'm looking to a 60% hit ratio in the long-term in the baseball, which I reached last year myself.

[encephalization]

I hope that early games will deliver two winners today. Generally speaking I'm looking to a 60% hit ratio in the long-term in the baseball, which I reached last year myself.

Not bad at all.. You're off to a good start today.

I'm playing alot of underdogs so a 60% hit ratio would be too much to ask for but. Atleast I'm alive.

[The Expert]

Not bad at all.. You're off to a good start today.

I'm playing alot of underdogs so a 60% hit ratio would be too much to ask for but. Atleast I'm alive.

It's always a better strategy in MLB to play more underdogs than favorites, having a gut feeling. I like favorites more, though I'm selective. Hit ratio ain't important to be honest, the most is ROI, which is terrific when drifts around 109-112% in the long-term.

[The Expert]

YTD: 1-1-0 (50%), -1.670 units, 92% ROI

[The Expert]

18.05.2010, 1:05 CET (10 units)
Philadelphia Phillies - Pittsburgh Pirates
I know that it sounds ridiculous to bet on runline with such a low price, however although it's MLB, where everything can happen and there're no certain things, this game and outright winner is close to be a banker, though I don't like this word. First of all, one of the best teams in the league host one of the worsts, which is alone an extremely big reason. Hosts bats were red-hot of late, so although there're some roumors about both Utley and Ibanez missing this game, there're a lot of great batter left and generally Phillies line-up looks still impressive. In fact guests, with their 16-22 are probably satisfied from the beginning of the season as they were considered as even a lot worse side, although I expect to decrease the record because they're more than miserable. Theoretically they're sending their rotation ace on the mound today, although Zach Duke (2-4, 5.56 ERA) hasn been looking far from it so far. I think that he's got some talent but he's inconsistent and is giving up way too many homeruns (for example he allowed 7 homeruns in last seven starts, which ain't a good number). On the other hand, mediocre Pirates line-up will have to face Roy Halladay (6-1, 1.59 ERA), who'll give a shutout game a shot certainly. He's been amazing with the new team so far and though he's been pitching a lot in latest starts, he's got the pace to do that, while I also expect some kind of "one, two, three" innings for him today. Huge win for the hosts is what must happen in that match-up.
Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) (@ 1.704 Pinnacle)

[The Expert]

18.05.2010, 2:05 CET (10 units)
Chicago Cubs - Colorado Rockies
I really hate the way Cubs have been playing lately, being unenthusiastic and lacking some motivation, although they've been always playing a lot better at Wrigley Field, so I expect some kind of a turnaround for them this season. This series may be the one to change their performance. They've been totally out-of-form until they didn't avoid a sweep against Pirates, with 4-3 home win. In fact there's nothing to be proud of but yesterday, in a win in first game of the series against Rockies, it was visible that they're playing with different effort. What's more a walk-off homerun might have boosted their confidence even more, so with a good match-up I believe they're going to win their third straight game. Carlos Silva (4-0, 3.40 ERA) is really good in 2010 year and although he ain't an ace, being just inconsistent, he should be solid enough to grab his fifth win of the season. On the contrary Rockies aren't blamed for being out-of-form, though their 19-19 record is far from being solid. They aren't hitting well these days and only rock solid pitching staff is assuring them some wins. Today I think that their inexperienced starting pitcher Jhoulys Chacin (2-1, 2.66 ERA) is overrated, after looking well in his first starts (without an earned run). He struggled against Nationals in last appereance, having 6 earned runs in 5 innings (including 2 homeruns) and I think that his struggle might continue in here, being under some pressure. Cubs aren't reliable yet, though with this price I'll give them a shot.
Chicago Cubs (ML) (@ 1.952 Pinnacle)

[The Expert]

18.05.2010, 2:15 CET (10 units)
St. Louis Cardinals - Washington Nationals
The Cardinals are really totally out-of-form right now, having their bats extremely ice-cold, although it's the main reason in betting on them for me today - they're underrated, especially when it comes to a runline. Of course they won't change their batting atittude overnight, although they should be better at home, after losing three out of last four series (one won was against Pirates). Actually I suppose that they'll have loads of opportunities to score because John Lannan (1-2, 6.51 ERA) is just terrific this season and after seeing his last two starts (both on May, where he's 9.31 ERA), I'm nearly sure he'll struggle against Cards as well. Hosts might have been out-of-form, though their line-up is powerful and bounce back ought to be on the way. On the other hand Nationals, although still having a good 20-19 record, lost the momentum, losing last four games in a row (being swept by the Rockies). They also lost first match of this two-games series, 2-6, being a lot colder than opponents. It's certain that experienced Chris Carpenter (4-1, 3.06 ERA) is going to improve, his already rock solid, numbers against them. I think that scoreline will be similar to the one from yesterday, so runline is the choice.
St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) (@ 1.926 Pinnacle)

[The Expert]

18.05.2010, 4:05 CET (10 units)
Oakland Athletics - Seattle Mariners
Although total runs line in this game is set really low, on 7 runs, I'm still believing that the value is lying on the under because two rock solid pitchers are starting on the mound, while both line-ups haven't been hitting particularly well this season. First of all the Mariners are really struggling, though having theoretically strong line-up after an off-season. Fortunately at least pitching staff is working fine. Today they're starting with their ace, one of the best pitchers in the AL - Felix Hernandez (2-3, 3.88 ERA), who's due to a big game in my opinion, after rather disappointing (as for his standards) beginning of the year. He's definitely capable of brilliant pitching, so knowing the fact he's already bounced back after a bad start against Angels, having just 1 earned run in 7 innings against Orioles, I believe he's going to shut down the A's. Hosts 19-20 after a big slump, in which they lost five consecutive games, ending negative streak with a win over Mariners, 8-4, in first game of this series. Such a highscoring game ain't gonna happen again. They were shutout twice against Angels and scored only one run twice against Rangers and these four terrible performances happend just in last six games. Still, they'll have pitching support today because experienced Ben Sheets (2-3, 5.70 ERA) is definitely a lot better than his numbers suggest. He started season well but had two horrible starts, in which he allowed 17 earned runs in only 7.1 innings, which did skyrocket his ERA a lot. Since then he's made two quality starts (against Rays and Rangers), so I'm quite sure he's going to be solid against M's as well. An under is written all over this game because two top-notch pitchers will make the most important role in here.
under 7 runs (@ 1.833 Pinnacle)

[SolidDala]

Nice write-ups

[The Expert]

18.05.2010, 1:05 CET (10 units)
Baltimore Orioles - Kansas City Royals
It's high time to back excellent Zack Greinke (1-4, 2.73 ERA) in this season because he's finally underrated instead of being overpriced. So far his W/L ratio is just terrible for that kind of an ace and he's surely fired up because of that, especially that he's been pitching really well so far, so he can't have too many remorses. He's just a rotation ace, being consistent and mediocre batters are already afraid of facing him, while Orioles line-up is generally average, so I think that hosts will find it extremely difficult to hit against that pitcher. In fact Royals are finally giving a run support for their pitchers, having some kind of a momentum with 4-1 record during last five games. On the contrary hosts are struggling a lot, having 0-3 in last three games with an overall 12-27 record. They're lacking run support a lot more, that's sure. Kevin Millwood (0-4, 3.69 ERA), who'll start for them today, is the best example of that, being still without a win though possessing ERA under four. Of cours he's generally way worse that Greinke and I expect him to be in 4.50 ERA zone in the near future, especially that he's already started his struggles, giving up 5 earned runs and 3 homeruns during 6.2 innings in his last start, against Mariners. Guests should be trying to ride a solid streak and extend winnings, while hosts won't get ouf of the slump, especially batting against Greinke, so these odds are valuable surely.
Kansas City Royals (ML) (@ 1.752 Pinnacle)