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empty cookie jar's public trends
Just a quick explanation of what I am trying to do here:
The idea is to identify which spots it is profitable to either fade or tail the public. This worked well for me at the start of the season, but due to shoddy record keeping on my part, once the trends I was playing broke down on me, I didn't know where to go. After taking some time off to decide how to move forward, I am up and running again. Let me go ahead and answer some questions that I anticipate will come.
1) Public numbers. When I refer to the public, I am referring to posters at gambling forums and not percentages provided by a line service. 2 hours prior to the first pitch, I track posters from several different forums and tally up their plays, so my numbers will most likely vary a great deal than SI or a similar site.
2) My intention is to share information and not picks. I will post the stats that I use; what you decide to do with the information is up to you.
3) Line moves. For the most part, the lines I show will be accurate, but due to the fact that I start my process 2 hours prior to the first pitch, there will usually be a couple of line differentials. I ALWAYS use the line that was available when I start the process. This is for record keeping purposes. For instance, tonight when I started the tally, the Phillies were -201. By the time I finished, the line was -193. For record keeping purposes, I used -201.
4) I will provide the day's tally anywhere from 15 to 45 minutes prior to the first pitch, depending on how long it takes. I will place my bets before posting the tally in this thread for obvious reasons. In the instance where there are day games (such as tomorrow and on weekends), there will be two separate tallies.
5) Questions and comments are welcome, but please no bashing. It won't take much for me to grab my balls and go home. Like I said, the purpose of this is to share information and not provide picks. There are those who find this type of information useless -- check, I got it.
Below is a snapshot of what I have tracked. I have everything broken down from public % on each line (i.e. 60% on home faves of -130 to -139), but will spare you those details (not enough there yet anyways). Feel free to ask questions, my intent is to be helpful. RF equals road favorites, and so on and so forth.
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