[Grind-It-Out]

As a precursor to the explanation, I'd just like to point out that this will probably not work.

Feel free to comment as much as you want. Let's try to get this done together.

And now, the strategy...
We will be starting with a bankroll of $1,000 and attempting to turn that into $50,000 by the end of the year, which is in 236 days.
We will be using a compounded interest rate formula to determine the necessary return each day. We will use that return to determine the bet sizes.
r = (P/C)^(1/n)-1
so, for day 1, r = (50000/1000)^(1/236) - 1 = 0.0167145%
So, our goal for day one is to win $16.71.
Whether we succeed on a day or not, we will be putting our new bankroll through the same formula the next day. This will allow for us to make up for a losing day without "chasing". And will allow us to keep on playing even if we are ahead of schedule.


Will post picks for day 1 in the morning.

[cowboys2231]

g/l

[THE PROFIT]

interesting

[Whippit]

what's ur % edge brah?

[Grind-It-Out]

Been hitting about the equivalent of 56 - 57% on a -110.

It just occurred to me that in order for this to work I will have to bet such that the EV = the goal, not just bet to win the goal.

By this I mean the following:

Say on day 1 I only like 1 team and they happen to be -120 favorites and I think they have a 60% chance of winning.

Instead of betting $20.05 to win $16.71 I would need to bet (.6(100/120) - .4) * 100 * 16.71 = $167.10

Can anybody confirm that this is correct?

Obviously I will spread out the risk where I can.

[Whippit]

http://sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Kelly+Calculator.aspx

bet size is $120 using full kelly

[Grind-It-Out]

Sounds like I'm being way too greedy then. Maybe I'll do the same approach but with a smaller goal.

[keel44]

I thought $16.71 was too small. I think you could do it with a 2 team parlay plan. 2 years ago I would risk 20% of my bankroll on one 2 team parlay a day. That parlay had to pay at least 3 to 1. I turned $500 into $5000 by getting hot winning 4 out of 5 parlays. 20% risk a day. win or lose.

[Whippit]

...

[Whippit]

Sounds like I'm being way too greedy then. Maybe I'll do the same approach but with a smaller goal.

not if you have that big of an edge, but you're gonna experience major bankroll swings & possible ulcers

[Whippit]

plus you should expect your edge to decrease betting heavier chalk

[Grind-It-Out]

Assuming you hit at 57% and bet on -110 lines with a starting roll of $1,000, here are the base amount that you would have to bet based on different goal amounts.

5k: $60.70
10k: $86.926
15k: $102.63
20k: $113.11
25k: $121.80

[Grind-It-Out]

and you're right, the more chalk you lay, the less EV you can expect.

[Whippit]

sounds like your goal amounts are based on # of plays per day?

cuz you're talking 8.8% edge, so on $1k bankroll you're optimal bet size is $97 @ -110 unless you're placing simultaneous bets...then it would be less

[Grind-It-Out]

the bet amounts listed above would the amounts required under the system, not the optimal amounts as determine by kelly. as long as the bet amounts above are less than kelly suggests, i feel okay about it.

[suckerforparlays]

gl dude! I hope you end up finishing off this goal with college basketball!

[Grind-It-Out]

I thought $16.71 was too small. I think you could do it with a 2 team parlay plan. 2 years ago I would risk 20% of my bankroll on one 2 team parlay a day. That parlay had to pay at least 3 to 1. I turned $500 into $5000 by getting hot winning 4 out of 5 parlays. 20% risk a day. win or lose.

wow, i just calculate it with doing 2 or 3 team parlays, and it seems much more feasible.

[Grind-It-Out]

I will be changing this to a 10k goal. 50k just seems way out of reach and a waste of money. 10k seems quite doable. Thanks everybody for your input, and I'll be back a little before noon to post the first day's picks. cheers.