[tzMoney]

Am I crazy??? Why not fade the Tribe today at home?

Here are some facts in favor of Toronto as the Jays go for their first sweep of the Indians since 2002.

Weather: The wind will be blowing out to center field at 15 - 20 mph, 76 degrees and sunny. Day games at Progressive Field are tricky due to the sun glare in the outfield - Can we say fielding errors? Especially because the Tribe is without Astrubal Cabrerra their starting second baseman. I like the Over here, Toronto leads the AL in Homers.

Trends: According to BigGuy.com
Toronto is +795 against the spread in away games this year.
Cleveland is -45 against the spread in home games.
RPG Toronto 4.8 Cleveland 3.5

Pitching: Carmona got shelled at home last game giving up six runs on eight hits over six innings in a loss to Minnesota - the weather was similar. The Jays are batting .216 lifetime against Carmona in 51 plate appearances. The Tribe is batting .182 against Morrow in 11 plate appearances. Carmona has only struck out 15 batters compared to Morrow who is at 33. The Jays have seen Carmona more than the Indians have seen Morrow.

Opening line was Toronto +112. 60% of the betting public is taking the Indians at -119.
Current lines are bouncing around but a reverse spread move has cut the Jays to around +105.

Bottom Line: I like the Jays enough here to win or lose $500 on Toronto. The only way I see the Tribe winning this game is by scoring over 5 runs so I'm also going put $500 on the over for insurance. With the Jays hitting the long ball, I really like the OVER because Carmona is overrated. Good luck boys.

[Dirty Bay Player]

I also took the over 8.5 and TOR even for 5 units. Toronto has been on fire offensively. I think Carmona is highly overrated.

This seems so obvious - hopefully not a trap.

[MStein12]

carmona isnt overrated he had one good year and everybody was on his d

[tzMoney]

I don't know how it can be a trap when 60% of the betting public is on the Tribe - 110. In that case the books want the Jays to win. 63% of the money is on the Indians run line at -1.5 -- Who in their right mind is backing Cleveland right now? Is it just people saying, "there's no way they'll get swept?" To those of you who think that, I say remember the Rays sweeping the BoSox earlier this year at Fenway.

[wagster71]

Just food for thought...Morrow with Toronto leads the AL with the number of K's in 9 innings. Carmona on the other hand allows a lot of BB's. The HP umpire, Kulpa has a record after 6 games of favoring the home team 5-1. He averages 13.8 K's per game and averages alllowing 7.0 BB per game. His OV/UN record is even at 3-3.

I think the OV/UN is a tough call. I like the Jays to win as they are a superior team and Cleveland will always be Cleveland..ha ha

[wagster71]

Morrow for Toronto 10.61 K's per 9 innings....Tops in the AL

[landers781]

I dunno guys I like Toronto here, but I hate betting against teams trying to avoid a sweep at home

[BiffTFinancial]

like the under

[swaindexter]

Very interesting concpts. Good luck on your wagers today..........

[ProfaneReality]

the anti sweep angle is the most overrated angle in sports

[tzMoney]

I'm watching the line dance around and its now as high as +118 at Pinnacle. I got in at Jays +105. Within the last 10 minutes the betting is going heavy on the Jays raising it from 40% to 42% -- I wonder what it will be at gametime. I hope this isn't a trap situation, but I'm sticking to my guns in saying this is a great bet. Gametime for me can't come fast enough given the way that the money is starting to shift.

[BiffTFinancial]

agree that the anti-sweep angle is among the most overrated angles. also in the running: it being impossible to beat a team 3 times in a season in NFL or college hoops.

[Lakers714]

Also keep in mind that today is a getaway game for Toronto.

[pokerpro44]

on the over.gl

[tzMoney]

wow.
Jays 43% at +127
Indians 57% at -135

This is blowing my mind right now. Should have waited to place that bet, at that line I'm starting to think about going in another $200 on Toronto.

[tzMoney]

In for another 2* at +126 - Sticking to my guns.

[DennisGreen]

On Jays as well. Morrow has been pitching well and the Jays bats are hot. Good value on the Jays today.

[luclongley]

also on the jays. morrow has done very well recently. expect the jays to get into the tribe bullpen by the 6th and open it up (carmona tends to throw too many pitches)

[goduke]

Wow so many people on toronto..... I dont see that at all, I took cleveland but gl to u

[bass7]

The Jays are batting .216 lifetime against Carmona in 51 plate appearances. The Tribe is batting .182 against Morrow in 11 plate appearances. Carmona has only struck out 15 batters compared to Morrow who is at 33

can someone explain this? also i am a huge toronto fan but i like cleveland on the runline here

[goduke]

Take cleveland on the run line, carmona should have a great bounce back game

[goduke]

Hes a sinkerball pitcher they are not going to hit homeruns off him today, and thats there only game.

[Sawyer]

As a principle, I never fade home team for 3rd game if they're 0-2 in first two games..

Indians lost first 2 games but they faced southpaws in these 2 games. This time, they will face a right-hander pitcher. The tribe can win this one..

[DennisGreen]

I'm only on Jays small for half a unit so I'm not that confident with the pick. I just like the value and the way the Jays have been playing as of late.

[tzMoney]

That was the first error due to the sun in left field. A catchable ball turned into a triple. Jays draw first blood. 1-0

[Dirty Bay Player]

Day games at Progressive Field are tricky due to the sun glare in the outfield - Can we say fielding errors? Especially because the Tribe is without Astrubal Cabrerra their starting second baseman.

Dude - that is pretty sweet when you call fielding errors and then the team that you are favoring in your post gets the first run of the game because of a major fielding error.

If the Tribe's 2basemen makes an error, I will give you the rest of my points.

[HenPrivilege]

This guy Morrow throws hard. Tribe with alot of SO's.

[tzMoney]

Good to see Hafner finally put some lumber on the ball. That guy is so streaky its stupid. BTW I took the Over at 8 at -135 so I'm also rooting for runs. I think that will happen in innings 7-9 once they get into the pens. Would love to see Laffey make another appearance like yesterday.

[Kemalettin]

As a principle, I never fade home team for 3rd game if they're 0-2 in first two games..

Indians lost first 2 games but they faced southpaws in these 2 games. This time, they will face a right-hander pitcher. The tribe can win this one..

im on indians side this time..GO INDIANS

[kidk]

i like the tribe 2

[OperatorX]

im from toronto and im still against the jays today.. but we'll see.

[tzMoney]

The 6th is the inning the jays bust it open. Started off with a leadoff walk

[tzMoney]

what a snag by peralta. that saved a run.

[ScarFace_1990]

bases loaded none out

[Rixsaw]

phewww, got out of that one.......