I have been trying to stay away from totals as much as possible as they can be very unpredictable, but here is a very +EV total tonight.
The Cardinals vs. Braves game should not get anywhere near 8 1/2. This game should go under rather easily.
The Cardinals start Jaime Garcia who is 1-1 with a 1.42 ERA on the year and the Braves start Kenshin Kawakami who has a pretty good 4.76 ERA as well.
Both these teams have struggled to score runs all year long as both offenses look to be pretty weak. While the Cardinals are 13-7 they have done that by having the best starting pitching staff ERA wise in all of baseball. Even with the 13-7 record they are only averaging about 3.7 runs a game.
The Cardinals lineup start with Skip Shumaker who is barely hitting .200, that is horrible for a lead off hitter and really makes it hard for the Cardinals to get anything started. Even if their power hitters do connect there is usually noone on base. The Cardinal lineup follows with Ryan Ludwick, Albert Pujous, Matt Holliday, Brendan Ryan who hits .167, Coby Rasmus, Molina, and Freese.
Now there is potential in the middle of the lineup with Pujous and Holliday and while Pujous is still a great player he is up in age and the home run profeciency will surely be off. But even when he does hit, he is often batting with the bases empty.
On the other side of the ball, This Braves offense is just flat out horrible. I wouldnt say it will be out of the question to see Garcia shut the Braves out tonight. This Braves offense has only scored 4 runs in Kawakami's 3 starts thus his 0-3 record even with a decent ERA.
The Braves lead off with Yunel Escobar who is hitting even below his counterpart Skip Shumakers crapping average. Escobar has managed a .192 BA this season. Martin Prado follows as the only bright spot on this offense so far this year, he bats .367 but isn't much of a home run threat so his hits are pretty much just for show. He has been getting some hits, which means he gets to watch the #3 and #4 hitters make outs from 1st base rather then from the dugout.
Batting third is Chipper Jones who must be 45 years old by now, and his BA and production shows it. He is .259 this year which is a far cry from how good a hitter he was for the Braves 25 years ago. Amazingly his .259 BA gives him the second highest BA on the team so far this year ( WOW ).
Brian Mccann follows at .250 then Troy Glaus at .200, then Jason Heyward who they expect will be great someday. Someday isn't today as Heyward is currently 1 for his last 20 at bats ( .050 BA ), then comes Cabrera BA .179, and then MCClouth BA .149.
Also Cardinals starter Garcia is facing the Braves for the first time in his career which tends to be pitcher advantage especially the first and second times through the lineup.
When and if this game goes to the bullpens I expect more pitcher dominance against these two impotent offenses. Last night the Braves used 3 pitchers out of their bullpen and the Cardinals used 5 pitchers out of theirs. In all, the 8 pitchers coming out of the bullpens gave up 0 Earned Runs.
These offenses are really that bad.
Under 8 1/2 for what I think will be a pretty easy win.
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Braves/Cardinals UNDER 8 1/2
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