[nobs]

I really love the Orioles plus the 1 1/2 runs tonight. Should be a really low scoring game so that run could well be a big factor. I like the Orioles to win the game but thats +160. I feel better to just take it -120 and get the extra run here.

Tonight, its Millwood against Hernandez, and while Felix Hernandez gets all the hype Millwood has actually pitched much better so far this season.

Millwood comes in tonight with an 0-2 record but he has a 2.89 ERA in 19 innings pitched. He has also struck out 20 batters while only giving up 1 walk. On the other hand Hernandez may have a 1-0 record but he has a lesser ERA and has also walked 9 batters in 20 innings while striking out 18.

The Mariners offense still continues to absolutely stink. They did score 3 runs last night which is one of the better performances for the year, but this is a Mariners offense with very little power and not to much hitting at all. They wont be getting any walks tonight from Millwood and that is about the only way this team has managed to put runs on the board this year.

Hernandez pitching for the Mariners. It is never a good idea to take the Mariners when he is pitching. He is madly overrated and thus is always over priced, I have seen Hernandez get shelled so many times I cant even count that high. He has given up 9 Walks already this year in just 20 innings. That is a recipe for disaster for any pitcher.

If there is any question that he is over priced just look at this game price. The Mariners are -200 with this crap offense going against a pitcher with a 2.89 ERA this year. That is over priced.

Millwood on the other hand should have no problem with this Mariners offense. Once he gets past Suzuki and the #3 hitter Franklin Guttierez this Mariners offense will be cake for him. After the number 3 hitter, the Mariners only have 2 of their bottom 6 hitting .250 or better and 3 of their bottom 6 hits below .175 so far this year. It is early in the season but this is a team that will struggle to score runs all year long.

Now I know that the Orioles have also had trouble scoring runs this year, but this is a much more solid offense than the Mariners bring and I think its only a matter of time before the Orioles are going to score. This teams problem is not scoring, its pitching.

I think with Hernandez's control problems combined with the fact that the Orioles do have a patience offense, they will likely get some walks tonight and that will get their offense going.

Total in this game is seven, so clearly it should be a low scoring game and I think a one run game is very very possible. That in itself would guarantee that this play is a winner and also the Mariners dont get their final at bat unless they are tied or losing.

So what you get here is the Orioles plus the 1 1/2 runs, one more at bat, the better pitcher, the better offense, the better bullpen, the pitcher who has had far more control, and the team that is due to break out of its funk. All this for -120.
I am really resisting taking the Orioles straight up on the money line but I love this team to not lose by more than 1 run tonight.

[cecil127]

....he said "the better offense" let me guess...u r <40 miles from the inner harbor
wait, at 2-13 you may actually be onto something here....

















NOT!

[shawnjohn5]

First off let me start by saying this write up isn't a bad write up at all, however it seems a bit biased as far as proving your pick to be correct. When I cap a game I take true stats true numbers over a long stretch of time. You state that Millwood has pitched better this year, yet provide very little back up to this claim other than the era that Millwood has and a few stats (walks and k's). Over his career Felix has almost an era of a full half a run less than millwood 4.02 vs 3.44, His career era vs the mariners is 5.08 and Felix vs baltimore has an era of 3.90. You also state that Baltimore has a very patient offense however they only have one player with more than 5 walks this season (markakis) Baltimore is ranked 12th in the AL (keep in mind their is only 14 teams) in walks. They have a team batting average of .223 and are ranked 11th in the AL in hits. You also mention that if Millwood can get by ichiro and Franklin G, then he'll be fine, yet fail to mention that in 46 abs against jose lopez has 15 hits for a .326 average against, Jack Wilson is batting .429 and Mike Sweeney is batting .357 against millwood. Those are some pretty hefty averages in more than just a small sample size. I'm not saying your pick is wrong, because millwood is very underrated at times, but if you are going to suggest other people wager money or give a case to wager money on the baltimore orioles plus 1.5 you should give the whole story... By your right up the question i have for you is why no ttake the under??? Or why not take Orioles money line and cash ever more!!!!??? Just a question for you!!! I'm presonally not taking this game!!

[nobs]

....he said "the better offense" let me guess...u r <40 miles from the inner harbor
wait, at 2-13 you may actually be onto something here....

Yeah both offenses suck. I went by this years batting averages, which admittedly arent very weighted. The Orioles starting 9 has a higher average BA this year than the Mariners. I admit that doesnt mean a better offense, just 11 games in.

What do you mean by 2-13 ?

[nobs]

First off let me start by saying this write up isn't a bad write up at all, however it seems a bit biased as far as proving your pick to be correct. When I cap a game I take true stats true numbers over a long stretch of time. You state that Millwood has pitched better this year, yet provide very little back up to this claim other than the era that Millwood has and a few stats (walks and k's). Over his career Felix has almost an era of a full half a run less than millwood 4.02 vs 3.44, His career era vs the mariners is 5.08 and Felix vs baltimore has an era of 3.90. You also state that Baltimore has a very patient offense however they only have one player with more than 5 walks this season (markakis) Baltimore is ranked 12th in the AL (keep in mind their is only 14 teams) in walks. They have a team batting average of .223 and are ranked 11th in the AL in hits. You also mention that if Millwood can get by ichiro and Franklin G, then he'll be fine, yet fail to mention that in 46 abs against jose lopez has 15 hits for a .326 average against, Jack Wilson is batting .429 and Mike Sweeney is batting .357 against millwood. Those are some pretty hefty averages in more than just a small sample size. I'm not saying your pick is wrong, because millwood is very underrated at times, but if you are going to suggest other people wager money or give a case to wager money on the baltimore orioles plus 1.5 you should give the whole story... By your right up the question i have for you is why no ttake the under??? Or why not take Orioles money line and cash ever more!!!!??? Just a question for you!!! I'm presonally not taking this game!!

Thanks. Good comment. I agree. I just cant take an under 7. Too low. I agree write up is biased. All I can do now is watch it and see, but I wouldnt like the Mariners to cover 1 1/2 against anyone any where ever.

[jboy4]

Like the orioles to win this straight up. Great value in this line with Millwood on the mound.

[bradleysnyder]

i rode a few dollars on this myself

[Salmon Steak]

I will be fading Baltimore -1.5 RL for a long time... mo$t likely

[jboy4]

Its game time guys. Hope the Orioles pull it off.

[jboy4]

Baltimore should have gotten 2 in the first. Cant squander runs like that if they are going to pull this off.

[jboy4]

Millwood looking a bit wild in the 3rd.

[Wilforth]

Looking good

[jboy4]

Millwood rolling and then blows up in the 4th. Long time from over but the way the offense has looked will be very difficult. Need this to be low scoring.

[Wilforth]

Millwood rolling and then blows up in the 4th. Long time from over but the way the offense has looked will be very difficult. Need this to be low scoring.

The game could end with the present score. Not much scoring left.

[jboy4]

I really thought the offense might do something tonight, but it is looking like Millwood had to pitch perfect. He was doing fine, but the mistakes in the 4th cost him.

[Jonah]

Thought you might of had chance there with them stretching Felix. Next time,

[jboy4]

One bad inning and that was the ballgame.