I'm posting previews for today's games, posted on SBR blog. Points always appreciated.
The Cardinals are coming home from a late loss in Milwaukee yesterday, where pitching duel (Wolf against Carpenter) ended different way than expected; bats were hot and hosts won the game 9-8, though Hoffman has blown lead in ninth inning, allowing three runs. Still, I don’t think that hosts will be depleted after that loss because they’re one of the best teams in NL this season certainly and their record in the early season looks quite good (4-2). They’ll start with Wainwright today, who’s been terrific in 2009 and started this year in similar fashion with 2 earned runs in 7 innings against Reds. Of course Reds lineup is worse than Astros, though it was on road, while Adam is expected to be rock solid at home. Guests have got miserable 0-6 record and I doubt that this negative streak will find an end quickly. They’re bad right now and what’s worse for them, their schedule is brutal, so atmosphere can’t be good. Rodriguez is a solid pitcher of course, though he ain’t that decent to assure low number of hits against him, especially that Cards offense is great and his first season appearance wasn’t something impressive (3 earned runs in 6 innings).
Cardinals (-1.5) (@ 2.120 Pinnacle)
Phillies offense is really great this season and I think that Nationals simply won’t stand a chance today because their bullpen is mediocre, while Marquis won’t be able to pitch a solid game, knowing the fact that he struggled a lot in his first start, allowing 6 earned runs in 4 innings, against the same offense. Hosts were quiet yesterday, in lowscoring win against Astros, though it was on road, against solid Oswalt, so today bats will be red hot in my opinion. Nationals started season a bit better than expected, having 3-3 record now but though they won yesterday against Mets and batted quite solid (5-2), they shouldn’t be able to produce to many runs against Hamels, who should be solid enough at Citizens Park to shut them down. The difference is huge, so although odds are extremely low, I can’t miss in-form Phillies in this match-up.
Phillies (-1.5) (@ 1.855 Pinnacle)
Cubs offense has been miserable so far and they’re certainly overrated team by the public – that’s why odds on them won’t be attractive too often. Still, they’re coming from a loss against poor Reds yesterday (1-3) and it should be an important aspect in here. They’ll be a bit underrated, while at season home opener, with Dempster who’s been amazing at home in 2009, they should finally win game comfortably. Brewers are solid, though their late win might hurt their stamina (they play 20.20 CET today) and I don’t expect them to be hitting well. Davis isn’t a trustful pitcher surely, especially after his disappointing start against Rockies, in which he allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings and was hit six times with three walks allowed. He had two wild pitches, was totally unstable and even Cubs offense will run against him easily.
Cubs (ML) (@ 1.667 Pinnacle)
It’s difficult to go against Red Sox in this beginning of the season because they seem to be hitting extremely well, though their pitching stuff ain’t that good and I think that they’ll face a lot of troubles today. Twins will be hugely motivated in first home game on new stadium, trying to find homeruns and generally a win, so they’ll need Lester and bullpen to be efficient a lot, while Jon has already shown that he lacks stability so far, allowing 4 earned runs in 5 innings against Yankees. Twins lost yesterday against White Sox (4-5) but they started season well, having 5-2 record and they’ve been hitting good so far, so I think that offense won’t be the problem; I simply hope that Pavano will pitch the way he did against Angels, allowing just 1 earned run in 7 innings. It’s quite a close match-up, with couple of edges for Twins, so I’m going with them as underdogs.
Twins (ML) (@ 2.270 Pinnacle)
The Tigers are coming to the earliest game today from a huge comeback yesterday, winning 9-8 at the end, though trailing 1-7 at one point, so I expect them to be high-flying today, with bats being hot again. Their 5-1 record (with 3-0 at home) is showing their strength so far and I think that solid and extremely powerful Scherzer should be the right guy to shut down surprisingly good Royals. He’s already played against them this season, allowing no runs in 6 innings, so though such a brilliant game ain’t expected here, he ought to pitch well in here too. In fact Hochevar, who’ll pitch for guests, did the same against Tigers, allowing no runs in 7.2 innings, although he’s worse pitcher than Max and he’ll surely be different player away from Kansas City. Guests weren’t able to win already two games with Greinke on the mound, so I think that hosts should overpower them today.
Tigers (-1.0) (@ 1.709 Pinnacle)
These two teams have already played whole series this year and in fact these three games were quite lowscoring with neither of them having double digits number of runs (3-4, 3-4 and 5-4). To be honest Rays, who’s got a great lineup and powerful offense, hasn’t been hitting too well so far and I doubt that they’ll change it against solid Guthrie, who’s probably O’s pitching ace for this season. On the other hand Orioles are struggling already with their offense, combining just 19 runs in 6 games (which means 3.16 RPG), so I’m sure that Garza, who’s more than solid, will have an easy pitching day in here. He started season dominantly, allowing only 1 earned run (2 runs) in 8 innings, with remarkable nine strikeouts. Under is set on 8.5 runs, which is half of a run too low for me, so especially that odds are high, it should be the play.
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