[SBRforum Staff]

Hamels, Phillies -145 vs. Rockies

Game Time: 10/03/2007 03:00 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

The Rockies made a spectacular run to earn the NL Wild Card, but they'll stumble today in Game 1 of their NLDS on the road against southpaw Cole Hamels and the Phillies.

The run both these teams had to close out their regular season campaigns was something special to behold, and its only fitting they’ve been paired up in the NLDS.

Colorado pulled off a comeback of epic proportions on Monday night when they clinched a berth in the postseason in walk-off fashion. Sure, Matt Holiday never touched home plate, but there’s no instant replay in this sport. Philadelphia secured their spot by winning the games they had to while the Mets choked away what seemed to be an insurmountable lead. With their win on Sunday over the Nats, coupled with the Mets loss at home to the Marlins, the Phillies won the NL East and the stage has been set.

Colorado has been a money-maker for close to a month now as they went a spectacular 21-8 in their last 29 ballgames. However, I don’t like this Game 1 spot for them at all after reaching the highest of highs on Monday night. This club wouldn’t be human if it didn’t suffer a bit of a letdown in this spot, and Citizens Bank Park looked to be an awful tough place to go into and win this past weekend vs. Washington. The white towels were waving, and it was a very intimidating environment from the looks of it on the tube.

This is a very important spot for the Phillies. They’re at home and they’re throwing their #1 stud Cole Hamels who looks to have rounded back into form since coming off the DL. In his three starts, he managed to go 1-0 and the Phillies won two games. His ERA was 2.25 and he only surrendered 13 hits in 16 innings of work. He’s coming off a gem vs. Washington where he threw eight innings of shutout ball while striking out 13 and walking just one. He also threw 119 pitches which tells me his arm is strong enough for the long haul in a game his team really needs him to come through in.

Jeff Francis put together a fantastic ’07 campaign and was the Rockies' best starter by far, but the Phillies pounded him the two times they saw him this year. I expect the hot Philly bats to get to him once again, and for Hamels to take this game deep enough for the pen not to be able to screw it up. Colorado will live to fight another day, but they’re severely up against it today.

Free Pick: Phillies -145

[SBRforum Staff]

Indians +170 to beat Yanks in ALDS

Game Time: 10/04/2007 06:30 PM
By: James Patrick | playbook.com

Looking at the payrolls for both clubs, this series is a mismatch. But the New York Yankees' payroll won't win it while Cleveland Indians pitching will carry them into the ALCS.

The $200 million payroll of the New York Yankees faces off against the $62 million payroll of the Cleveland Indians in what most Wise Guys see as a baseball mismatch.

The Yankees won all six games against the Tribe this season while out-scoring them 47-17 and out-hitting them .348 - .228 with Cleveland pitchers posting an 8.19 ERA in those games. However, the top pair of Indians, left-hander C.C. Sabathia and DH Travis Hafner, were not part of the action as Sabathia did not start in either three-game series and Hafner was not in the Tribe lineup for series at Jacobs Field in August.

This is a different Cleveland team now and the aging Yankees starting pitching is a huge question mark! The Tribe has the pitching edge in respect to depth, more speed and a superior defense. Home field advantage is another Tribe bonus.

Our selection in this American League Division Series is on the Cleveland Indians to take out New York in opening round action in this series.

Free Pick: ALDS Series Play on the Indians (+170)

[SBRforum Staff]

Angels and Red Sox Under 8½

Game Time: 10/03/2007 06:30 PM -
By: Larry Cook | procappers.com

John Lackey came home with the AL ERA crown this year and Josh Beckett is extra tough in the postseason. Play tonight's Angels, Red Sox game in Boston under the total.

John Lackey finished with the American League’s best ERA and he is the clear ace of the Angels staff for good reason. Josh Beckett is a postseason killer with an ERA just over 2.00 in all October starts.

The Angels are 9-0 Under in road games with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 7.00 in the last five games this season. The Under is 9-2-1 in Lackey's last 12 road starts with the total set at 7-8½. The Under is 12-3 in Lackey’s 15 road starts this season.

The Under is 7-1 in the Red Sox' last eight home games with the total set at 7-8½. Bet the Under in this pitchers duel.

Free Pick: Angels-Red Sox Under 8½

[SBRforum Staff]

Ride Rockies run +134 at Phillies

Game Time: 10/03/2007 03:00 PM -
By: Vernon Croy | 10starpicks.com

The Rockies are just too hot to ignore after an amazing close to the season. Cash on Colorado this afternoon with Jeff Francis on the mound in Philadelphia against the Phillies.

We are getting great value here Wednesday afternoon with the red hot Rockies who are hitting .305 as a team while averaging 6.7 runs per game.

The Rockies have won 11 of their last 12 games and this is a hitter’s ballpark in Philly, so I look for their bats to stay hot. Jeff Francis (17-9 ERA 4.22) has thrived in day games this season with an 8-0 record and an ERA of just 2.48 over 61.2 innings.

Colorado is 13-5 when playing with a day off this season and 35-17 when playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. Grab the value here today.

Free Pick: Rockies +134

[SBRforum Staff]

Play Philadelphia Phillies -145 versus Colorado Rockies

Game Time: 10/03/2007 03:00 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

The Phillies and Rockies open their NLDS this afternoon in Philadelphia with a pair of lefties on the hill. Back the Phils behind ace Cole Hamels in Game 1 of this series.

The Philadelphia Phillies open the NL Division Series against the Colorado Rockies knowing they are 9-3 at home behind Cole Hamels this season.

Hamels is coming off a brilliant outing last weekend when he worked eight scoreless frames at home with 13 strikeouts to move to 15-5 on the season. Colorado lefty Jeff Francis fared much worse in his only start in Philly this year, allowing eight earned in 3.1 innings on Sep 13 and posting a 15.12 ERA in his two starts that lasted just 8.1 innings versus the Phillies this season.

With Colorado yet to face Hamels in his MLB career, anticipate a Colorado letdown from the gigantic run they made to make it to the playoffs. Stay at home with Philadelphia here this afternoon.

Free Pick: Phillies -145

[SBRforum Staff]

Rockies and Philles Over 9

Game Time: 10/03/2007 03:00 PM -
By: Bill Young | procappers.com

The offenses will control this game and this series. Play the Over Wednesday afternoon in Philadelphia when the Phillies host the Colorado Rockies in Game 1 of their NLDS.

You will witness the two most explosive offenses in the National League going toe-to-toe Wednesday afternoon.

Starting pitching only matters to a certain point. These hitters can get the best of any starters in this league. Case and point with what Colorado did to Jake Peavy in their play-in game against San Diego on Monday. Cole Hamels is no Jake Peavy. Jeff Francis has an 8.79 ERA in his last three starts against the Phillies. Philadelphia could overcome this 9-run total themselves.

The Over is 7-1 in the Rockies’ last eight road games with a total set of 9.0 or higher, and 9-0 in Francis’ last nine starts against the NL East division. Francis will struggle early in Game 1. The Rockies will boot out Hamels by the end of the fifth inning as well. Take the Over.

Free Pick: Rockies-Phillies Over 9 (+100)

[LT Profits]

Looks like I am standing alone among "the boys" with Rockies. Oh well, it's not the first time.

[bigboydan]

Looks like I am standing alone among "the boys" with Rockies.

I think I'll fade them today as well LT.

[Leo the Lip]

Cubs win! Cubs win! Cubs win!

[bmac]

rocks lookin pretty good to me

[EJandV]

A good 80% of the time for the whole season in MLB my best selections that are wrong are right the next day they play .
This runs in amazing streaks to make the % so unbalnced .

Phils good in game 2 .