1. 10-03-07 09:25 AM #1
    SECfan23
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    +/- 1.5

    My local guy is only taking action on the run lines. If you have to pick teams +/- 1.5 runs, Who do you like today? He is also taking over/unders.

    My leans:
    Cubs +1.5
    Phillies -1.5
    Sox/Angels ?
    Indians -1.5
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  2. 10-03-07 01:23 PM #2
    LT Profits
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    First off, dump his ass and fund an online book.

    Secondly, no Totals for me today, check tomorrow. Run Lines are sucker bets.
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  3. 10-03-07 01:27 PM #3
    Tchocky
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    Only run line I'm playing today is Red Sox -1.5 +126.
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  4. 10-03-07 03:06 PM #4
    Ganchrow
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Run Lines are sucker bets
    I addressed just this fallacious assertion not four months ago.
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  5. 10-03-07 03:13 PM #5
    BatemanPatrickl
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    -1.5 RL bets in MLB are pure torture.
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  6. 10-03-07 03:14 PM #6
    LT Profits
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    Not a single MLB team has a winning record vs. the Run Line since 1997. That is all I need to know to avoid them.
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  7. 10-03-07 04:46 PM #7
    SECfan23
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    I see that it doesnt make much sense to a team -1.5. But, I see that the Cubs +1.5 are getting -200 odds. Since my bookie is taking all baseball runline bets at even odds, shouldnt I take the cubs +1.5?
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  8. 10-03-07 05:18 PM #8
    LT Profits
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    Well that's different!

    If he is really giving +100 on -200 bets, OF COURSE bet it and scalp Arizona -1.5 somewhere at the proper price.
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  9. 10-03-07 11:05 PM #9
    Ganchrow
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Not a single MLB team has a winning record vs. the Run Line since 1997. That is all I need to know to avoid them.
    Implying what exactly? That one shouldn't blindly bet a given team's run line from year-to-year? That's probably good advice. Well guess it's probably good advice for money lines, too.

    The fact is that just as I pointed out in the above-referenced post there are certain instances where all else being equal the run line is systematically a better bet than the money line. For whatever reason a given individual might not personally like betting run lines, but that doesn't mean that from the standpoint of bankroll growth maximization they don't frequently provide better opportunity.

    All else being equal a rational expected bankroll growth maximizing bettor should always prefer lower vig and shorter (i.e. "more negative") odds. While it's certainly true that a book may frequently choose to skew its lines to systematically favor one bet class over another, the fact remains that in any given instance this is simple to check for on an ongoing basis using a MLB run line/money line equivalences.

    Based upon a particular bettor's forecast it certainly might make sense for that bettor to seldom if ever bet run lines. But if so, he needs to make sure he's avoiding these bets for the right reasons ... and a blanket claim that "run Lines are sucker bets because not a single MLB team has a winning record vs. the Run Line since 1997" is most decidedly not one such reason.
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