How can't you like both dogs in these two series's.

Red Sox, Yankees hold favorite tags in AL Playoffs

10/02/2007 08:51 AM
By: Chance Harper

Unlike their counterparts in the NL where the playoffs remained undecided after 162 games, the AL postseason quartet was set with about a week to go. Boston grabs home field advantage throughout and will meet the Angels in a best of five beginning Wednesday while Cleveland hosts the Yankees starting Thursday.

Although we've known for a while now just who was going to be in the American League playoffs this October, the actual matchups weren't settled until this past weekend. So let's get right to it and see if we can shed some light on what might happen in the divisional round of the AL postseason tournament.
Red Sox, Yankees hold favorite tags in AL Playoffs

The Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Indians actually tied for the best record in the majors at 96-66, but the Red Sox earned home-field advantage throughout the AL playoffs by winning the season series with the Indians. So Boston, champions of the East Division, will begin a five-game divisional series with the Los Angeles Angels, champs of the West, Wednesday afternoon in Beantown.

The other best-of-five divisional series matches the Central Division-champion Tribe against the Wild Card New York Yankees, and starts Thursday in Cleveland.

Angels (+155) vs. Red Sox (-175 to win series)
Series Begins Wednesday, Oct 3, in Boston

The Angels led the AL West basically all season long, but had to fend off the Seattle Mariners, who contended well into August. Boston also led its division all season, but also had to withstand a rally, this one by the Yankees.

The Red Sox went 51-30 at home this season while Los Angeles went 40-41 on the road. On the other side of this matchup, the Angels went a ML-best 54-27 at home this year, while Boston went 45-36 on the road, which ranked second-best.

The expected pitching rotation for this series looks like John Lackey for the Angels in Game 1 vs. Josh Beckett for Boston, Kelvim Escobar for L.A. in Game 2 vs. Curt Schilling, and Jered Weaver in Game 3 vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka for the Sox. And because of the length of this series, both teams are expected to go with their Games 1 and 2 starters in any possible Games 4 and 5.

Los Angeles went 23-10 in Lackey's starts this season, 22-8 in Escobar's starts and 16-12 when Weaver took the mound. Boston went 21-9 when Beckett started this year, but an ordinary 13-11 for Schilling and 17-15 for Dice-K.

The Sox took the season series with the Angels this season six games to four, with the o/u going 6-3-1. But while Boston was winning two more games than L.A., they outscored the Angels 64-42 in those 10 games.

The Red Sox’ offense ranked second in the majors with its .362 team OBP, and averaged 5.3 runs per game. Los Angeles posted a .345 team OBP this year, which ranked fifth in the league, and they averaged 5.1 RPG. The Angels also ranked third in the league with 139 stolen bases.

The Boston bullpen ranked second in the majors this season in both ERA at 3.10 and WHIP at 1.23. The Los Angeles pen ranked 20th in the league with a 4.22 ERA and sixth in WHIP at 1.30.

On the injury front for the Red Sox, slugger David Ortiz is battling a bad right knee, which (for the baseball anatomy-impaired) is the lead leg for a lefthanded hitter. Also, fellow big bat Manny Ramirez just returned from a month off with a strained oblique muscle. He's hit exactly one home run since Aug. 5.

For the Angels, OF Vlad Guerrero is being bothered by a sore triceps, and he's been DHing recently, which removes a gun from right field. And CF Gary Matthews has a bad knee, and he hasn't played since Wednesday.

Boston is listed at right around -175 to win this divisional-round series, while the Angels are getting +155. The Red Sox are also posted at around +175 to win the American League pennant and +300 to win the World Series, while Los Angeles is listed at about +375 to win the pennant and +600 to win the Series.

The O/U is 75-80 in Angels’ games this season, 75-84 in Boston games. Also, the total played to a 43-35 mark at Fenway Park this year, where games averaged 10.2 runs per game, eighth-most amongst all ML ballparks. Meanwhile, the O/U went 40-39 at Angel Stadium, where games averaged 10.0 RPG this season, which tied for 10th-most among all ML ballparks.

Yankees (-210) vs. Indians (+180 to win series)
Series Begins Thursday, Oct 4, In Cleveland

Cleveland battled Detroit for much of the season in the AL Central, but pulled away in the latter weeks. New York stunk for the first third of the season or so, but posted the best second-half record in the majors.

The Tribe went 51-29 at home this year, third-best in the majors, while the Yankees went 42-39 on the road. Conversely, New York went 52-29 at Ruth's house this season, second-best in the league, while Cleveland went a respectable 45-37 away from home.

The expected pitching matchups for this series go like this: C.C. Sabathia vs. Chien-Ming Wang in Game 1, Fausto Carmona vs. Andy Pettitte in Game 2, Jake Westbrook against a banged-up Roger Clemens in Game 3 back in New York and Paul Byrd vs. Mike Mussina in Game 4 (if necessary).

The Indians went 23-11 in Sabathia's starts this season, 22-10 in Carmona's starts, 19-12 in Byrd's outings but only 13-12 when Westbrook took the hill. The Yankees went 21-9 in Wang's starts this year and 21-13 in Pettitte's, but just 13-14 when Mussina started and 8-9 when Clemens did.

New York swept the season series with the Tribe this year six games to nil, with the O/U going 4-2. And the Yanks did it convincingly, hitting 14 homers in the six games and outscoring Cleveland 47-17.

New York led the majors in several offensive categories this season, including team OBP (365) and runs scored (968), at a healthy 5.98 runs per game. In fact, the Yankees scored 72 more runs than did the Philadelphia Phillies, who ranked second in the majors in scoring. That difference came to four-tenths of a run per game, which is a lot when projected over the course of an entire regular season.

Cleveland ranked eighth in the league with its .343 team OBP this season and averaged 5.01 RPG.

The New York bullpen ranked just 22nd in the majors this season with its 4.35 ERA and 24th with its 1.45 WHIP. The Cleveland pen ranked seventh with a 3.75 ERA and 10th with a 1.34 WHIP.

The Yanks are listed at around -210 to win this division-round series, with the Indians getting +180 despite owning home-field advantage. Also, New York is posted at about +155 to win the AL pennant and +300 to win the World Series, while the Tribe is listed at about +350 to win the pennant and +600 to win the Series.

The O/U is 72-84 in Cleveland games this season, 79-72 in Yankees games. Also, the total played to a 40-40 record at Jacobs Field this year, where games averaged 10.0 RPG, 10th-most among all ML parks. The O/U went 39-36 at Yankee Stadium, where games averaged a league-leading 11.1 RPG this season.