[khaden]

Im getting scared

[daneault23]

Ah! I forgot to add the first $150 loss into the calculation of the 3rd game bet amount. Thanks for catching that!

Np man, just trying to keep things accurate

[stingyrivers]

whats up fellas... I had to take and a nap too lol... these sweeps only happen about 5 percent of the time, and some people around here got me scared now that every other time the royals stroll into fenway the sox are screwed and should be scared....

to answer Sawyer... that is why I been going through the whole season schedule, to try to plot out a summer long cherry picking of the best against the worst as much as possible... I think from what I have seen... when you just include the best 5 or 6 at home only against the bottom 6 or 7... you end up with about 100 plays on the year... that is pretty solid....

though I also tend to agree that sometimes the best against the best isnt such a bad thing... yes the series will be competitive and not a mismatch, but... first the juice is a lot lower, which helps a lot... and, when you really think about it, especially if it is an intra division rivalry, the games and series is actually harder fought, sweeps dont happen to many times in those... think about it, because of how hard fought generally every inning is, how often do the redsox walk into the bronx and sweep the yankees, or vice versa, it really doesnt happen much....

some have to remember here... we arent taking a bet against a team being able to beat the home team, we are making a bet that it isnt likely the away team and beat the good team all three...

the main time that a good against a good might be left out in how I think about it, is if the away good team is starting the series with their one and two guys on the hill, and they are both among the top 5 and the home teams one and two are decent, but mismatched in both games...

one example I can think of is like ST L (Carpenter, wainright) going into a team we would be betting with like at LAA... that one could be dangerous, because if the LAA arent hitting, ST L could take one and two fairly easily... and then you are sweating... and good pitching generally beats good hitting more times than not....

[Sawyer]

those might be the best series to play as the odds will likely be as close to even money as we'll see.
you won't be paying -225 when the red sox host the yankees.

I don't suggest to chase home teams versus good road teams. Remember Bos vs Nyy series last season?

Don't play if road team is above .500 on the road. Selectivity is the key.

GL All!

[DeHoyos]

[DeHoyos]

Just won 2 teamer NY 2ndHOver and LAL 2ndHUnder....

[DeHoyos]

Sting whats the latest, give me the cliff notes version I was out all day with the kids....I'm cramin from now until first pitch...then I'll pass out....Let's do da dam thang!!!!!!

[DeHoyos]

I wonder what the record is for the Lowest average odds in a given series for all teams.....

A series that on average is a PK might not have many sweeps if your backing the best teams.....

I know the Yankees have swept Boston twice recently in Boston...

What about overall team record at a particular ballpark....How can a team go from a horrible record or streak in a park to a sweep????

Lackey sucks against NY I'd be scared to make that game 3 bet...

[mlb]

Good luck guys .. can't wait! .. havent been on in a few days ...

however first thing I noticed going through the lines is Chicago seems to be a no play for me... line is way too high .. too much juice to be giving it seems right away ... just a thought!

cant wait til tomorrow night

[DeHoyos]

What are the match-ups again for the White Sox???
Peavy's goin 3rd right????

Ok no it's Buehrle first...then Peavy

[mlb]

What are the match-ups again for the White Sox??? Peavy's goin 3rd right????

Believe he is going on Wednesday which is actually game 2..

Game 1: Buerhle vs. Westbrook (Chi -168 from covers.com)
Game 2: Peavy vs. Carmona
Game 3: Floyd vs. Masterson

Seems to be high, but will look into it further ....

Stingy, sorry if I missed it, you are posting picks in here right?
Will they be bolded or whats the deal?

[DeHoyos]

I'm takin Cain in game 3 if the Lastros win 2....

You know what the Giants may actually be a play and the Astros the worst team here......

[DeHoyos]

Ben Sheets had a 11.20 ERA in six starts in ST.....

[DeHoyos]

Did you know Rich Harden is from Victoria, BC Canada ???

Did you further know that the current Jays bat .222 against him???

Did you further know that Rich is 0-3 with a 4.75 career vs. Canada????


Let's see what happened his 1st game against Canada....

Rookie Rich Harden (3-2) lost his second consecutive start, his worst outing in his brief major league career. He gave up six runs -- matching what he allowed in his previous five starts combined -- on eight hits with a pair of walks and six strikeouts.
Harden labored through two scoreless innings but couldn't fight through the third, when the Blue Jays batted around and scored four runs on four hits, a walk and a hit batter to erase an early deficit.
"I was out of whack mechanically," Harden said. "I didn't feel great and my command wasn't there. It was pretty frustrating."
Hinske, a former A's farmhand, hit his ninth homer of the year after Reed Johnson beat out a bunt single. Hinske hit a 1-1 offering from Harden into the left-field bleachers.
"He's got nasty stuff," Hinske said. "He just needs to pitch. I just put a good swing on it. That was a big home run."
Vernon Wells and Greg Myers singled and Frank Catalanotto was hit by a pitch to load the bases. Harden walked Tom Wilson on five pitches to force home a run and Orlando Hudson grounded out to second to drive in another run.
Hinske's two-run homer in the fourth, on a 2-1 pitch from Harden, made it 6-2.

[DeHoyos]

Let's see what happened in his 2nd game this time in Canada......

"I left a few pitches up in the zone and that hurt me," Harden said.
Rich Harden (9-6) failed to become the fifth Oakland starter with 10 or more wins. Harden allowed seven runs -- all earned -- on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings in his first career start in his home country.
Carlos Delgado also homered for the last-place Blue Jays, who avoided a three-game sweep.
Toronto scored six runs in the fifth, tying a season-high for runs in an inning.
Delgado walked and Alex Rios singled before Eric Hinske chased Harden with an RBI single. After Justin Duchscherer walked Frank Menechino, Gross hit a 0-2 pitch for Toronto's fifth grand slam of the season One batter later, Adams homered to give Toronto a 10-4 lead.
"You can't keep pitching great and playing great," Oakland manager Ken Macha said. "We had an extremely poor day."

[DeHoyos]

hmmm....3rd game

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) -- Damian Miller broke up David Bush's no-hit bid in the eighth inning, then won the game with a bases-loaded single in the 14th inning of the Oakland Athletics' 1-0 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday.
Bush and Rich Harden allowed one hit apiece through eight innings, but the game stretched on long after a duel of promising young right-handers ended in a draw.
Jermaine Dye led off the 14th with a single off Justin Speier (2-6), Toronto's sixth pitcher. After a sacrifice bunt and two walks, Miller singled to nearly the same spot as his eighth-inning single to left.

[DeHoyos]

game 4 lmao....

Wells hit a three-run homer in the fifth inning to help the Toronto Blue Jays beat the Oakland Athletics 4-2 on Thursday night
Wells hit a two-out homer off Rich Harden (5-4), giving Toronto a 3-2 lead. He entered the game hitting .222 with runners in scoring position, and just .154 with runners in scoring position with two out.
"It was just bad location," Harden said.
Harden left in the sixth after consecutive walks to Reed Johnson and Gabe Gross. Ricardo Rincon relieved and walked Russ Adams before Catalanotto hit a hard grounder to shortstop Bobby Crosby, who was unable to get a corral it. Johnson scored on the RBI single.
Harden, who won his previous three starts, allowed four runs on a season-high six walks and five hits in five innings. The Canadian is 0-3 with a 5.59 ERA in five career starts against the Blue Jays.
"It's always special coming back here," Harden said. "It's great coming back, but I still have to treat it like any start. I don't try to get excited out there."

[DeHoyos]

game 5 lost to Doc in a duel....

Over his first 12 starts last year, Romero went 7-3 with a 2.96 ERA
Romero was considered for the Opening Day starter role, but Toronto ultimately decided to hand that honor to the more experienced Shaun Marcum.

Thoughts?????

[DeHoyos]

[stingyrivers]

whats up guys... I took the night off last night to try to gain a little clarity on this approach.... not sure I got any but... I will be starting my picks thread tomorrow for the season on these plays... I went through the whole season... and I am planning on making 150 plays on the year... I dont have the exact plays right now, just a long list for each week of the season to pull off of based on matchups...

between opening day and sept. 1 there are 22 weeks, I am planning on making 7 plays a week for the first 20 weeks... and 5 plays a week for week 21 and 22... total of 150 plays according to this concept....

obviously, the goal is 150 - 0 ... is that possible, yes... is it very likely, who knows, it definitely wont be a piece of cake to pull off....

I will post my first plays tomorrow for the whole first week... along with starting bankroll and unit size... My plan is to up the unit after each 10 wins... that is subjective, my own choice of progression... ultimately no matter how the plays are bet, the important thing with this strategy is avoiding sweeps...

I am hoping that we can continue all discussion and brainstorming going in this thread, and have the picks thread just be my official picks week to week... Good luck to all of you no matter how you choose to go in MLB... hopefully we all have a profitable summer

[Stealinhome]

Should be fun

[mlb]

Thanks for the clarity on the new thread .. looking forward to it!

[mlb]

And as much as it goes against a lot of argument .. I know I'm playing Philly despite the -179 line.

[whatsgood5]

Good luck man!

[stingyrivers]

that is probably the one away team series on the whole year that I am playing.... it will be all home teams on 149 plays... and that series will be the one away team on the whole year... there is no way I can play against a sweeps and not take Philly in the season opener against the worst team in baseball with Halladay and Hamels in game one and two... and if you notice, the juice as I thought it would be is a lot lower than some of the nay sayers were expecting... -188 ....game two if somehow Halladay loses will probably be around -165

[mlb]

that is probably the one away team series on the whole year that I am playing.... it will be all home teams on 149 plays... and that series will be the one away team on the whole year... there is no way I can play against a sweeps and not take Philly in the season opener against the worst team in baseball with Halladay and Hamels in game one and two... and if you notice, the juice as I thought it would be is a lot lower than some of the nay sayers were expecting... -188 ....game two if somehow Halladay loses will probably be around -165

I like it .. I might venture to take a few more road teams than you this year .. personal preference .. will be in your thread all year like I said ..

[jolmscheid]

Sweet...let's go get 'em...Sting you are starting a NEW thread and could you put your picks in BOLD so we know what the system plays are? And have you thought of your money management? ARe you going to double up for a 3 game chase? Or are you doing to double up on the first two games and then just try to win back your first bet on the third game? Thanks

[Cosmo213]

I've been lurking around here before I registered on the forum and I'm absolutely fascinated by this strategy. I was messing around with some numbers and I made a realization that's going to dictate how I would approach this method. I want to share it with you all and see what you think. Forgive me if I'm stating the obvious here (it may have been discussed in the previous thread) but I think it's pretty important.

The examples that have been used up to this point have assumed a -150 moneyline. I wanted to see what the amount risked was at different odds. Since money risked is compounded with each loss in a series the difference can be quite staggering if the chase goes to game 3.

-125 odds series

$125.00 to win $100 (Game 1)
$281.25 to win $100 (Game 2)
$476.56 to win $100 (Game 3)

-175 odds series

$175.00 to win $100 (Game 1)
$481.25 to win $100 (Game 2)
$1,017.19 to win $100 (Game 3)

What I want to point out is that, in this scenario, you're betting MORE in game 2 of the -175 series than you're betting in game 3 of the -125 series and -175's game 3 is more than double the risk of -125's. A difference of 50 points in the money line is enormous.

I understand that there are ways to mitigate the amount risked that have been posted. What I'm trying to say is that you HAVE to do something to mitigate the risk when playing on a heavy favorite (edit: after a game 1 loss). Maybe using the -1 or -1.5 run line, betting to break even after a game 1 loss or just not betting after 2 losses. Just take the series as a loss and move on. The potential loss FAR outways the potential winnings in this case if using straight A to C bets.

Given what I know now, I would never make a "C" bet on a -175 favorite. My heart couldn't take it. I would have a much easier time placing a "C" bet on a -125 favorite though.

Fortunately, our first series currently features a -114 money line for the Boston Red Sox which is even less risky than the -125 example I posted. These are the kinds of series we shouldn't be reluctant to bet on, two teams of similar strength with low ML odds, not massive favorites that could put you in the psycho ward. If anyone is nervous about this first series which has some of the best odds we'll see all season long you should reconsider using this strategy.

[jolmscheid]

What do you think of doing this for our money management?

OK..you go with the 3 game chase at -1.5 runline...

You have a very high percentage of wins at Bet A and Bet B...

With you have a Bet C loss......simply divide the loss into the subsequent
series coming up.....

With the high percentage of A and B wins.....recovery time for series
losses will be short.........

[fastpitch_45]

good info cosmo

[stingyrivers]

great posts... excellent breakdown Cosmo... that is a huge differentiation especially considering based on the strategy we would be facing a lot of favs in the -160 to -180 range or higher, actually, the opening card I am looking at for this week has a couple... one thing to say is, the reason the lines are set that high actually tends to mean we would win a lot of those in game one, however, if we dont, it leads to a scenario we have only dealt with in the theorhetical and assuming an eventual win and not in the practical in the moment psycho ward inducing moments...

I really like jolm's solution too, it is something that hadnt been considered before A bet ML... B bet ML.... most of the wins come in one of those, and the handful that push the envelope to a C bet, use the RL.... I like that for a lot of reasons... obviously it would cut the C bet in half... also, we are betting on the team that is supposed to win in game one and two, if they dont against an inferior team, I would suspect they come out all guns a blazing in game three to get that win, making the RL cover maybe more likely...

great posts... I think there should be heavy consideration of both with this strategy....

I also had an insight about this while talking about it to a friend today.... my goal is to average between 5 and 7 plays a week... each week there are over 30 series to potentially select from...

if you cant pick 5 or 7 series out of a card of 30 where a sweep wont happen to the team you are taking, you probably shouldnt be betting baseball in the first place... that is kind of how I am looking at this...

[JW Cash]

What do you think of doing this for our money management?

OK..you go with the 3 game chase at -1.5 runline...

You have a very high percentage of wins at Bet A and Bet B...

With you have a Bet C loss......simply divide the loss into the subsequent
series coming up.....

With the high percentage of A and B wins.....recovery time for series
losses will be short.........

hey jolmscheid....

You ripped off my post word for word..!!!!!!!

This is what I wrote in post #1723 in the System Integrity thread of Baseball Handicapping....

Hey....try to come up with something original....

Oh well....guess I should be flattered, uh ???

[jolmscheid]

Yes, I replied to your post right after asking exactly how you would spread out the losses. I thought it was a great idea on your part! Just want to make sure that we implement it the way you are talking about...

[Bluemonk]

Here are my thoughts for Week 1. The first five I would be more confident in then the bottom four. Please let me know your thoughts and if I'm missing any possibilities.

Orioles vs. Rays
Phillies vs. Nationals (Road Team)
Athletics vs. Angels
Blue Jays vs. Rangers
Nationals vs. Mets

Pirates vs. D-backs
Red Sox vs. Royals (Road Team)

These were my last two series on the board as I'm not sure what to think of the Indians this year.
Indians vs. Tigers
Indians vs. White Sox

[fastpitch_45]

i really like the sox taking on the tribe