Minn ML (-115): Baker's gotten knocked around a bit but he still has been pitching pretty well against less formidable lineups such as the Sox', and who knows which bats from their already so-so lineup will be sitting for this early game. Vazquez had been throwing well this year but he has often gotten hit at the Metrodome, and I think Minn has modest but clear-cut value at this low fave line.
Mets/Fla Over 10 (-120): Going back to this well once again, as the circumstances for this game aren't primed to stem the over tide in Florida when a solid opposing offense and shaky pitching is involved. Kim should be vulnerable as he usually is, and when Perez is bad he is often very bad, and things have been looking a little iffy with him for the past 2 months or so.
St. Louis ML (-105): St. Louis suffers without Pujols, but they still have some decent bats and arms kicking around, and IMO they should be something of a favorite at home against Houston, a similarly unsteady team they are roughly evenly matched with. Thompson has been decent as a starter at times this year, while rookie Albers has had some clear problems on the road in general.
Boston/TB Under 9.5 (-115): Dice K is off of long rest which usually helps him, and I would not be surprised if he bounces back from recent troubles with a strong start. Sonnanstine has gotten mostly hit by Boston, but he has also thrown some good games against comparable lineups recently, and he looks like he may be on the improve a bit. HP ump Hirschbeck will probably help a bit as well.
Philly/Wash Under 9.5 (+100): There's a bit of a risk here with Redding slumping after his injury, but he was going well earlier in the year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him go 5 solid innings or so. Washington's lineup, which may be without Wily Mo Pena, might get shut down by Kendrick, who has pitched solidly overall this year. Despite recent trends, this is still RFK, and this is a high total all things considered IMO.
Detroit ML (-190): Detroit is still scrapping to the end, and unless Davies has one of his 15%-of-the-time strong starts, Detroit will have to give this one away to lose it. Rogers knows how to get outs and win, and the matchup discrepancies here are great enough to give solid value to Detroit even as a huge fave IMO.
Cleveland ML (-135): Haren is closing the season pretty unsteadily, and he has now given up double digits in hits for 4 straight starts, putting his September WHIP at 2, not a good sign for someone who has usually had impressively low WHIPs. Byrd is not quite an ace, but he looks to be more steady than Haren right now, and Cleveland will also probably send out a more balanced lineup than Oak. All in all, Cleveland's likelihood of coming out on top gives them value at this line IMO.
Arizona RL (+100), Over 8.5 (+100): This is one of those bet tandems where each one serves as both a partial hedge and a partial enhancement for the other. If Webb gets hit, it's very unlikely the under will come in. If Webb is dominant, it's unlikely the Arizona RL won't win. It's significantly more likely that both will win than that both will lose.
Wells has been good at times in certain situations, but he's still a 44-year-old fat tub of sh*t going on 3 days' rest against big league hitters in a hitter-friendly park. If he has a strong start, hats off to him, and I'll eat my losses. I'll be rooting for him but betting against him. Webb has come down considerably from him shutout-inning streak peak, and he may get hit here by the Dodgers' balanced lineup, but he is still of course an elite starter.
Seattle ML (+120): Seattle might crush Colon, and they match up very competitively with LA in every other way.
Texas RL (+130), Over 10.5 (-120): Now that the total has dipped under 11 I'll take it. Liz is very very vulnerable and should allow Texas to get halfway to this total pretty quickly. Volquez is definitely on the improve, but the rest of the runs should be able to trickle in even though these lineups aren't the most explosive around. Texas has a clear advantage here starting pitching-wise, but for volatility reasons I like the RL more than the ML with them.
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Sept 22 Ganchalysis: Early Plays and Leans
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