1. #1
    The HG
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    Sept 21 Ganchalysis: A Few Early Plays

    Mets/Florida Over 9 (-125): Florida trends over at home, the Mets bats are lively, and Scott Olsen is in terrible form right now. A rebound by Olsen in this start would be a big surprise, and I see the Mets getting at least 4 or 5 off of him and then another couple against the Florida pen. Pedro had been good, but likely to make a mistake or two before he leaves. After him, the Mets' pen has not been terribly solid of late.


    Tampa Bay ML (+140): Boston is banged up and stumbling right now, hardly the kind of team that should be a big road favorite against a quality starter such as Kazmir. Beckett has been pitching great, but Kazmir hasn't been too far off of his pace, and I think this underdog line on TB is a clear-cut notch or two too high.


    Dodgers/Ari over 9.5 (-105): The Dodgers' balanced lineup should be able to get to Hernandez, and Loaiza has been struggling of late, and his wildness will not serve him well at Chase. Interestingly, 9 out of Hernandez' last 11 home starts have gone to double digits, with the other 2 reaching 9. LA comes in with a strongish lineup and a weakish starter, so I see value with the over here.

  2. #2
    louisvillekid
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    i was looking at that TB play myself

  3. #3
    bigboydan
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    I'm passing on that Sox/D'backs game myself.

    There is no doubt IMO that Boston is overpriced in this matchup tomorrow. I just don't if I can pull the trigger on this game, because this is a must win type spot for Boston. Plus they always fair well against the D'rays over the years.

    I will be taking my chances with that Mets/Florida over with you though.

  4. #4
    pico
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    i don't think i can back you today, ghg.

    kasmir has won too many games against the sox. they have their ace, beckett to face him. plus this is pretty much a decisive game...if they lose, their al east division is really in jeopardy. so i am going with beckett on this game.

    for the mets, they have good pitchers going, so i think it will be an under game today.

    no opnion about your third pick.

  5. #5
    Dhuepaxuz
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ganchrow HG View Post
    ...Mets/Florida Over 9 (-125)...:
    .

    I also like this play, My Friend.

    Good Luck on this one and your other plays.

    .

  6. #6
    The HG
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    Quote Originally Posted by picoman View Post

    for the mets, they have good pitchers going, so i think it will be an under game today.
    pico, i like the mets over more than anything i've had in MLB in a while (a while meaning a few weeks or so, of course). i think that one is pretty likely to come in, i think it will be something like 5-1 mets after 4 innings or something like that.

  7. #7
    stump
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    i'm going to be a sucker and play the Mets ML tonight. Hopefuly their bullpen can hold a lead for once

  8. #8
    pico
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    Quote Originally Posted by stump View Post
    i'm going to be a sucker and play the Mets ML tonight. Hopefuly their bullpen can hold a lead for once
    i think you need to pray mets' bat more than their bullpin. especially they need to hit in more runs during the middle of the innings. ****ing sweat it out last night.

  9. #9
    MJFtheGenius
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    scott olsen is not this bad of a pitcher he will rebound tonight IMO GL!!

  10. #10
    The HG
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    Quote Originally Posted by MJFtheGenius View Post
    scott olsen is not this bad of a pitcher he will rebound tonight IMO GL!!

    I say he gives up a minimum of 4 runs in 6 IP. my prediction is 6 runs in 3 and 2/3 innings. GL everyone!

  11. #11
    pokernut9999
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ganchrow HG View Post
    I say he gives up a minimum of 4 runs in 6 IP. my prediction is 6 runs in 3 and 2/3 innings. GL everyone!
    I hope you are right !!!!

  12. #12
    The HG
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    2 late extra thoughts

    1) I think Toronto is a big-time trap. I like the Yanks at -165 or wherever they wind up.

    2) I also really like over 8.5 +100 in Oak/Cleveland.

    one more thought:

    I don't think there's any more value with TB now. I thought the value with them at +140 was clear-cut, and also that the line was almost certain to go down. Right now in that game I like the over 8 +105 much more than either side.
    Last edited by The HG; 09-21-07 at 06:01 PM. Reason: one more thought

  13. #13
    pokernut9999
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    Wang just scares me here. I just did small play.

  14. #14
    The HG
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    adding another

    I also like Hou/Stl over 8.5 -120 or wherever it is quite a bit. There are some lively bats in those lineups, and I'm not sure the pitching is strong enough to be able to keep things quiet enough to warrant this low of a total.

  15. #15
    pokernut9999
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ganchrow HG View Post
    I say he gives up a minimum of 4 runs in 6 IP. my prediction is 6 runs in 3 and 2/3 innings. GL everyone!
    Do i sense a vision here ?



    At least 6 total runs so far.

  16. #16
    bigboydan
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    Looks like that over is looking strong early for us Mr.HG

  17. #17
    pokernut9999
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    Originally Posted by Ganchrow HG
    I say he gives up a minimum of 4 runs in 6 IP. my prediction is 6 runs in 3 and 2/3 innings. GL everyone!


    Best damn call I ever saw. Hit it on the number 6 runs in 3 2/3. I am impressed.



  18. #18
    bigboydan
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    Barring a rain out we won the over Mr.HG

  19. #19
    pokernut9999
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    Cox blows another game

    He always lets Hudson and Smoltz go to far. Then brings in the pen in hopless situations.

  20. #20
    The HG
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    throwing on another one

    Cin/SF under 9 +100

    this is a good one I think. Both starters are a bit underrated IMO, and the lineups are also a bit lethargic right now, and a full 9 gives a little leeway for a push, especially if it winds up 4-4 in extra innings.

  21. #21
    bigboydan
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ganchrow HG View Post
    Cin/SF under 9 +100

    this is a good one I think. Both starters are a bit underrated IMO, and the lineups are also a bit lethargic right now, and a full 9 gives a little leeway for a push, especially if it winds up 4-4 in extra innings.
    Any thoughts on the side in this game sir?

  22. #22
    The HG
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigboydan View Post
    Any thoughts on the side in this game sir?
    Yes, SF, modestly but solidly I think.

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