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Sept 11 Ganchalysis: Some Plays and Leans
Mil/Pitt under 10 (-120): Gallardo can get hit but is usually pretty good, and Bullington is iffy and unproven to say the least, but this is a high total for an NL game at this point in the season, considering that the lineups involved are not explosive, although there are some very good bats in spots. I see the under as a play with some value.
Tex/Det GM 2 under 10.5 (+100): Jurrjens was effective in his 2 starts against the capable Cleveland lineup this year. The fact that he had shoulder issues is troubling, but if he is recovered, he should be able to have a good start against Texas here. McCarthy has a lot of potential, and he is returning from the DL for a bone-related problem. If both starters are reasonably effective, this should be a tough total to surmount.
Mets ML (-160), under 9.5 (-120): Hernandez will be off of extended rest for non-shoulder-related problems, and unless he is mentally bothered by his foot problems, he should be able to have a good start at home, as he has been able to do all year long. If he does, both of these bets should have value, with a decent chance both will win. The Mets have won 7 out of Hernandez' 9 home starts this year, and none of those 9 games have seen more than 8 runs scored.
Yanks/Toronto under 10 (-115): Toronto has somewhat quietly been a strong under team at home this year, especially when the total has been in double digits, and this game may set up well for another under. Marcum is very good when he is on his game, and Hughes could well be able to hold down Toronto's underachieving lineup.
Minnesota/KC under 9.5 (-120): Davies is shaky in general of course, but he has pitched slightly better of late, and has actually pitched Minnesota well this year, which stands to reason a bit since they usually field a relatively weak lineup. Baker has been dominant against KC twice this year, and if he is so again, the under could have a good chance to win even if Davies gets hit hard.
Arizona/SF under 9 (-110): Both of these starters are a bit more effective than they may be being given credit for here, and the lineups involved are not likely to pose any undue challange to them. I think it will take an extra push to get this game into double digits in scoring.
Oakland/Seattle under 9.5 (+100): I think Braden is in a bit better shape than his overall record might indicate, and Washburn is likely to fare better than Ramirez did against Oakland's average offense. Seattle has trended modestly to the over at home this year, but I think this line is a bit too high.
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Originally Posted by AC1318
