[The HG]

TB ML (+205), under 11 (-120): I don't think it would be pushing your luck to take TB again as a huge dog in this one. Jackson of course has turned into a reasonable big league starter, and has even pitched a good game at Yankee Stadium already this season, and the Yanks are sending out a guy who is highly touted, but started the year in Single A and is making his first big league start. I think the under is decent as well, because Kennedy has after all been very effective in the minors, even at Triple A, and this is a highish total which hasn't been surmounted easily at Yankee Stadium recently.


Florida ML (+120): Philly has been streaking and the Marlins have been tanking, but talent-wise, there's not such a great difference between these two teams and starters to warrant Florida being a solid home dog, IMO. Yes Ryan Howard may hit one or more grand slams off of Kim, but overall I see this game as roughly evenly matched.


Milwaukee ML (-160), over 9.5 (-105): Youman is likely to be very vulnerable here, and if he gets hit, these two picks are guaranteed to at least split, and likely to both win. Milwaukee's lineup can be tamed by good pitching, but against Youman it will probably be a different story; I don't see him getting too deep into this one without giving up a big inning.


Oakland ML (-110): This is a low line to get for Oakland at home with Haren starting against Detroit, a team that is not clicking on all cylinders right now. Verlander may well keep pace or even outpitch Haren, but I think there is value with Oakland at this line in general.


Cin/Stl under 9.5 (-105): Wainwright has really been cruising at home, and if he has another 7-inning, 2-run start here, the under should be looking pretty good. Dumatrait has been awful in the majors so far, but he should be better than that at some point, and he may well have a decent start here on this call-up from Triple A.


Cleveland ML (-150): Yesterday's fluky win by Cleveland really just emphasizes what's going on with the White Sox right now; they are a lost team hard-pressed to pull out wins, especially on the road against quality teams. Vazquez may keep the Sox in this one, but even if he does, look for the Sox to fumble this one away again somehow. The stars may align to give the Sox a win, but I think Cleveland has value here even at this highish line.