1. 08-22-07 05:08 PM #1
    AC1318
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    I am going to write a sports gambling book

    I will call it "your guess is as good as mine"

    who posted the average runs scored in bannister contreras games vs opposing teams was like an average of 12
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  2. 08-22-07 05:12 PM #2
    AC1318
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    I was wrong it is actually 10
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  3. 08-22-07 05:12 PM #3
    AC1318
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    why was the line so low at 8.5 ??
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  4. 08-22-07 05:20 PM #4
    WestsidePete
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    because of bannister...for what ever reason...
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  5. 08-22-07 05:22 PM #5
    AC1318
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    very surprised so many played under
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  6. 08-22-07 05:23 PM #6
    EJandV
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    It was 9 and then it moved down to 8.5 , then I looked same time frame and saw sonnys under 8.5 clicked in like 10 minutes after it moved , he was going with the line movement . If I had to answer I would say Soprano wagered 10 k on the under 9 runs early yesterday ? and then his buddies did a lil of the same ............ so moved down half a run and looked like a wise $ play . Not to me it wasnt . But by watching the game it could have went under just as easily as it happened to go over .
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  7. 08-22-07 05:31 PM #7
    AC1318
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    Quote Originally Posted by EJandV View Post
    It was 9 and then it moved down to 8.5 , then I looked same time frame and saw sonnys under 8.5 clicked in like 10 minutes after it moved , he was going with the line movement . If I had to answer I would say Soprano wagered 10 k on the under 9 runs early yesterday ? and then his buddies did a lil of the same ............ so moved down half a run and looked like a wise $ play . Not to me it wasnt . But by watching the game it could have went under just as easily as it happened to go over .
    but 12 of 16 in the past went over 9
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  8. 08-22-07 05:49 PM #8
    joverh
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    Last minute pick

    -----------------
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  9. 08-22-07 06:02 PM #9
    EJandV
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    yeah well 9 is a normal o/u which is how it came out , it really is not a huge factor on past matchups for the o/u , it is like big time factors for that are in the here and now frame with the starters and the teams runs per game plus lefty righty , it could have been 9.5 if the only factor was how bad contreras had done vs kc and the factor of past matchups being over , but they concentrate on the present more . In all reality contreras or bannister could have no hit the other team so damn the under would always be worth a shot if that was any kind of decent % to happen , which of course any pitcher can do well , get lucky alot , d makes web gem after web gem in the field robbing the hitters , making the starter look saaaweett , the over/under is far more complex than picking a team to win . My best scenario for how easy it can be > you take the over and one is blowout>>>> winning team goes over the total by themselves . Also , the formula to get the over is simply both teams do their part offensively , hitting their averageruns per game and is a cakewalk for the over to cash . Off the top of my head ..... my fav scenario to make cash is fav and over , maybe thats why I am not a millionaire , no its becauseof the online casino bs . For me on the over under thing I am not there yet really , not evolved , even though I know everythign about it ........... is complex really . The over has cost me a many parlay in my day , throwing that bs on there ot make more $ / greedy .
    Last edited by EJandV; 08-22-07 at 06:04 PM.
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  10. 08-22-07 06:07 PM #10
    area51steve
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    Yea, I looked at the stats after seeing sonnys pick today and the under just didn't make sense.. Glad I stayed away
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  11. 08-22-07 06:28 PM #11
    AC1318
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    past history works for me, just need to be on the right side of it when it comes around
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  12. 08-22-07 06:30 PM #12
    EJandV
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    Trends would be past history right ? You would be all over the mets then right ?
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  13. 08-22-07 06:32 PM #13
    AC1318
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    Quote Originally Posted by EJandV View Post
    Trends would be past history right ? You would be all over the mets then right ?
    why would that be
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  14. 08-22-07 06:33 PM #14
    EJandV
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    mets have dominated them .
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  15. 08-22-07 06:36 PM #15
    EJandV
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    is past history trend , is really the biggest trend on the board today mets 7 - 0 past 7 vs padres in NY .
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  16. 08-22-07 06:37 PM #16
    AC1318
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    Quote Originally Posted by EJandV View Post
    mets have dominated them .
    they split the last 20 since 2001 10-10 in NY

    were 10-10 over all until this series started as well last 20

    SD 11-9 at home last 20

    peavy 4-4 overall

    lawrence new to SD
    Last edited by AC1318; 08-22-07 at 06:39 PM.
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  17. 08-22-07 06:43 PM #17
    EJandV
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    I know you dont go back that far , lol at that 1 . Now you are getting a sense of humor AC seriously it is the biggest trend today with team vs team playing at , is actually at 100 % is rock solid trend , going against the Mets would fall into playing the due theory , mets due to scratch this 7 - 0 100% super trend . I dont like the game .
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  18. 08-22-07 07:37 PM #18
    xxx
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    in the kc-cws 7 of the 13 runs were scored after the 7th, so the bullpens screwed the under. i would be pretty pissed
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  19. 08-22-07 07:56 PM #19
    AC1318
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    Quote Originally Posted by xxx View Post
    in the kc-cws 7 of the 13 runs were scored after the 7th, so the bullpens screwed the under. i would be pretty pissed
    that is the way every night in almost every game
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  20. 08-22-07 08:35 PM #20
    WestsidePete
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    do any of you bet the second halves of games?? the 6th inning on total runs scored is usually 3 1/2 to 4 runs...I've done this 4 times this year and am 3-1...seems like pens give up more runs the last 2 months of the season so maybe worth a try...
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