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August 22 Ganchalysis: Stuff I'm Liking
Oak/Tor under (8.5 -105): Loaiza has been doing decently in his rehab starts, and he should probably have a reasonable start here against the underachieving Toronto lineup.
On the other side, A.J. Burnett looks like he is fully recovered from his shoulder soreness, and the break he got will probably put him in a good position to have many strong starts in a row in the near future. If he is on his game again, Oakland shouldn't be able to challenge him too much.
KC/WSox under (9 -120): Contreras looks like he may be turning a corner on the season. He's only given up 1 BB and 4 ER in 14 IP in his last 3 appearances, and I think he is likely to have a decent start here. KC probably won't challenge him too much, especially if they play some of their weaker players, which they may with Bannister going and it being a day game.
On the other side, Bannister is solid and steady and effective, and likely to have another good start, possibly a top-notch start. Even if Contreras gets hit, it is entirely possible that Bannister could give up 1 or 0 runs and keep the game under.
Both teams have solid pens, unlikley to push the game over if the scoring is modest when they get involved.
Mets ML (+135), +RL (-130): Peavey is great of course, but this line is probably giving him too much weight. He's off of a somewhat high pitch count and 4 days of rest, which has traditionally not been the best of circumstances for him, and on the road against a winning team like the Mets, who also have a capable bullpen, I don't think his team should be this much of a favorite.
Brian Lawrence can be decent at times, and if he pitches as well as he did in his first start of the year at Shea, which is relatively likely IMO, the Mets should be in this one to the end, conferring value to both the ML and the +RL.
Wash/Hou over (9 -110): Woody Williams has pitched impressively in many of his recent starts, but he is still a guy who is likely to get hit a little, and possibly a lot, every time out.
Washington starter Mick Bacsik is someone who is clinging to mediocrity, and he gets a bit of an artificial boost by pitching his home games at RFK.
Washington should again get an offensive lift on the road here, as they have scored 18 in their first 2 games in this series. And Houston should be stronger offensively with the return of Hayden Pence.
Add it all up, and things are looking positive towards the over in this one, with percolating offenses and questionable pitching all around.
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Originally Posted by BatemanPatrickl
