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July 31 Ganchalysis
Colorado RL (+150), over (9 -110): Aaron Cook has been pitching well, and Scott Olsen of course has been having struggles. Olsen won't likely be in good shape to deal with Colorado's competent lineup, so all in all, one of these picks in likely to win, with a decent chance that both will, IMO.
Even if both starters have strong starts, the bullpens involved should offer a reasonable chance of an out on either bet, and a small chance even at an out on both.
Washington ML (-115), under (9 +100): Cincinnati has a bit of trouble against lefties, and they aren't particularly explosive offensively even at their home park. Coming to RFK sets them up for struggles, and mediocre Matt Chico, who has been able to maximize his time at RFK this year, should once again be able to have a short but effective start.
Bobby Livingston has done pretty well in his short time in the majors himself, and Washington is unlikely to get to him for much either.
All in all, this game sets up as a similar one to many Washington home games this year, one where they are looking at a low-scoring close home win, conferring value to both the under, which has a surprisingly generous total IMO, and the Washington ML.
Yankees RL (-120), over (10 -125): Yes the Yankees are a badly overrated team in general, but Jose Contreras is something close to being the Yankees of starting pitching. If he gets hit hard again in this start, as he has for the past two months, this game could get out of hand early, turning into one of those 21-8 football-score type of games.
There's a chance that Mussina will get hit just as hard, in which case the Yankees' RL will be in a bit of jeopardy. But in general, I feel both of these plays have decent value.
If Contreras comes into Yankee Stadium and throws a good game after his last 2 months with a record of 1-8, an ERA of 8, a WHIP of 1.8, and a BAA of .340, including a shocking .396 in July, I'll be OK with eating any losses resulting from these bets.
Atlanta ML (-165), under (9.5 -125): Chuck James has been quite effective at home this year, and has pitched well in general, without too many clunkers thrown in. Houston's average lineup, which is also not well suited to hitting at Turner Field, is not likely to push him into a bad start if he is going well.
On the other side, Chris Sampson is a decent starter, and always has the ability to hold teams to modest run totals, and he should benefit from Turner's relatively pitcher-friendly environs.
Atlanta's bullpen is always a problem, but if James can go reasonably deep, after a day of rest I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt and bet that they can go 2 or 3 innings without getting hit too hard.
Both the Atlanta ML and the under should have value if things go as I think they are likely to.
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