[Razz]

A decent Friday showed a little profit, but nothing spectacular. Here's what I'm going with for Saturday:

Medium:
Mariners -109 (Horrifico/Gaud Awful)
Not exactly a premier pitching battle here. As expected, converted reliever Gaudin is getting pummelled since the All-Star break. I've cashed by either betting against him or betting over in all three of his starts. Here's what he has done: 13.2 IP, 20 hits, 17 BB, 10 K, 15 ER. That's a 2.71 WHIP and a 10.23 ERA.
Even though the righty/lefty situation favors the A's, I'm still riding the Gaudin fade in this game. The Mariners do still have large lineup and bullpen advantages, their home record is much better than the A's road record, and Ramirez has been great at home - 5-0 with a 2.27 ERA as opposed to his 0-3 record and 13.72 ERA away from home.

Light:
Cardinals (Reyes/Capuano)
Anthony Reyes is 0-10. But I still believe he is going to be a good pitcher. His WHIP and BAA are around the league average, he doesn't give up many HRs, and he really shouldn't be 0-10. For one thing, he doesn't get any run support (29 runs in his 12 starts), but that could change here, as the Cardinals' key hitters own Capuano:

Duncan 2-5, .400, 2B
Eckstein 5-15, .333, 2B
Encarnacion 7-18, .389, 3 2B, 2 HR
Pujols 13-22, .591, 2 2B, 3 HR

Capuano has been particularly bad at the new Busch (0-2, 8.18 ERA/1.55 WHIP, .292 BAA), and his road numbers this year are ugly. Milwaukee has done their best work against lefties, so I think Reyes could do enough to get a win here.

Dodgers (Tomko) @ Rockies (Francis) Over 9.5 -115
Tomko is awful at Coors, has been terrible on the road throughout his career, and won't last deep into this game, thus exposing the soft underbelly of the Dodgers bullpen. Francis is a very good pitcher, but has struggled recently (5 or more ER in four of his last six starts), and the Dodgers hammer left-handed pitching.

Devil Rays -103 (Shields/Lester) - 1st five innings
It's a great story that Lester won his first start back from the DL. Good for him. That was the first time in years I've wanted a Red Sox player to do well. But it's absurd that he is favored for the first five innings of this game. Now, of course the Devil Rays bullpen is likely to blow this game. But the Rays should be close to -130 for the first five innings. James Shields can be dominant, and has been regularly this season. His home numbers are very good, and his WHIP tells the story of his caliber more than his ERA, which is inflated because of a couple ugly starts at Yankee Stadium and Chase Field. Most of the runs he has allowed have come when he has been forced to pitch too long because of the lack of a bullpen behind him. The Red Sox aren't a great hitting team away from home, as they showed last night by getting shutout the first five innings by a pitcher nowhere near Shields' ability.

[onlooker]

Your not kidding about a full Gaudin fade mode.

I still have to go against you on that Mariners play Razz. I am going with the Athletics +105 and the Pirates +140.

Good luck with your other plays, I just hope you fail on the M's.

[EaglesPhan36]

Like the M's play. Good #s for Horacio at Safeco. Considered the LA-COL over, but haven't full decided.

[Razz]

Your not kidding about a full Gaudin fade mode.

I still have to go against you on that Mariners play Razz. I am going with the Athletics +105 and the Pirates +140.

Good luck with your other plays, I just hope you fail on the M's.

Haha, I'm going to keep going with what's working. If he starts proving me wrong, I'll reconsider. If he doesn't, he's going to be in the minors.

The Pirates would have been my next choice. I like taking a quality lefty against the Phillies (and who is JD Durbin to be laying 150?), but it worries me a little that, while Youman's numbers are good, he hasn't gone on the road yet. But I like the call, good luck with it.

[onlooker]

I hear ya Razz. If it is not broke, don't fix it.

[rjt721]

The M's would have been my next play. I passed, but I do agree with the pick.

I obviously like the Sox quite a bit today, but the five inning line is interesting. I'm hoping it will be about 8-2 in favor of Boston after five, but if your intent on playing the Rays, avoiding the pen and taking the first five is the way to go. Shields is capable of throwing a good game, but unless he goes 8, I think a TB win is unlikely.

It's a great story that Lester won his first start back from the DL. Good for him. That was the first time in years I've wanted a Red Sox player to do well.

I don't believe you. I know deep down you're a big JD Drew fan.

[Razz]

Cardinals were +104, not sure why I didn't post the line. Also, "back from the DL" when referring to Lester obviously wasn't exactly what I meant to say, something like "after being diagnosed with cancer" would have been more accurate.

rjt, I was certainly excited about Nancy signing with Boston. She's disappointing me though, I knew she would put up lousy numbers, but I thought she would spend more time on the DL.

[bigboydan]

I'm liking the Cardinals in game 2 as well Razz.

[Razz]

Hmm, Gaudin actually had a pretty good performance. He doesn't understand how to pitch, so of course he still got the loss, but I might have to hold off on the Gaudin fade unless the situation is better than today's. The M's are too free-swinging, that will probably be their eventual downfall. The bullpen is nasty though, and they of course came through as expected.

[Razz]

I'm liking the Cardinals in game 2 as well Razz.

I know you've supported Reyes as a quality pitcher in the past, let's hope he starts showing what he's got in him.

[onlooker]

No sheit Razz. He doesn't break 90 pitches in 8 innings pitched. A's have 15 base runners and only mustard up 3 runs.

The Mariners walked 8 guys, and still won. Geez.