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July 27 Ganchalysis
Washington/Mets under (9 -115): Jorge Sosa should be able to bounce back from his last tough road start at LA, and the Mets, even though they have a balanced and quality lineup, should be only moderately productive tonight, not explosively so.
Carlos Beltran is still iffy at best, and the runs, while they are likely to creep in as the game goes on, are not likely to pile on with any big innings. It will probably take an extra push or two for this one to reach double digits in scoring, so the under at a decently high total for Shea has value IMO.
Boston ML (-155), RL (-105): I'm not sure where on the sharp/square spectrum this one falls, but it's straightforward, and I don't see anything going on below the surface.
Tim Wakefield is great indoors, and particularly at Tropicana, and this is very explainable and very well-known. If, for whatever reason, he actually doesn't have a good game, Boston's lineup against Hammel and the Tampa Bay pen will still offer a pretty significantly likely out in addition. If Wakefield does have his usual good start at Tropicana, it is a big longshot that Hammel and the TB pen will be able to match him against Boston's lineup.
Add it all up, and I think these big favorite lines are too low, even on the road.
Kansas City ML (-125), under (10 -125): Brian Bannister has demonstrated an ability to have quality starts on a consistent basis, and notably against strong lineups as well, and there's no reason to think he won't be able to have another solid start here against Texas' average lineup. Of his 7 home starts this year, only his first start of the season saw more than 10 runs scored. In fact, of his 15 starts on the year, only 2 have gone over 10, the other one being a start at Coors.
On the other side, Jamey Wright has been mediocre, but somewhat consistently so, and he's not as likely to get shelled here as someone with similar numbers to him might be.
Add it all up, and both KC and the under have value IMO.
Florida/San Francisco under (9 -105): Rick Vanden Hurk has settled into a decent major league starter, and that might not be completely recognized yet. In the pitcher-friendly park at San Francisco, facing SF's average lineup, he is likely to have another decent start.
Barry Zito is having a sub-par year, but he has actually pitched pretty well at home. Of his 8 home starts this year, 6 have been decent or better, and he is likely to have another decent one here IMO.
Hanley Ramirez might return for Florida tonight, and Barry Bonds will also probably be in the lineup, neither of which is good for the under. But on the other hand, Armando Benitez has gone 2 days in a row, so he is not likely to be used, which of course is great for the under.
Add it all up, and the total for this one seems decently high, conferring value to the under IMO.
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GL all 
Originally Posted by Ganchrow HG
