sitting at 3-2 W/L today for +1.16 units just for today
Sunday Night Baseball - May 26
ST.LOUIS -137 ML // 4 units to win 2.92
OVER 9 -101 ATL@STL // 4.04 units to win 4
The way I'm looking at this game, in brief: Teheran is Atlanta's #1 starter and has pitched good this year. Tonight is the last game of Atlanta's successful road trip. Flaherty is #2 in the Cardinals rotation. So why are the Cardinals -137 favorite? With 57% or higher of the public consensus taking the road dog...
The Over pick (I'm terrible always with totals), is looking at previous Pitcher vs Batter history in this matchup, plus the warm humidity tonight in St. Louis, with this being the only game left to play in professional sports tonight (not considering racing/WNBA).
Game notes: 2 base runners for Arizona in each inning, stranded. Bottom of 2nd had the pitcher come up to bat with 2 outs. Also, David Peralta was place on the 10-day IL back on Friday, which is an important loss in the lineup but it didn't seem to hurt the Diamondbacks during the remaining games of their previous series in San Francisco, who they swept and put up big scores in those games.
The 3 units risked doesn't reflect confidence level for this pick, but rather the odds seem inflated and I'm thinking Angels have a decent opportunity to pull off a win in this game. Looking at -175 range for Oakland I would clearly not take those odds, but in seeking an explanation, Franking Montas is the young Oakland pitcher with 6-2 W/L record and his team has won 10 in a row.
Meantime the Angels are a scuffling team so far this year and they are going with an "opener" starting pitcher, to be followed by Nick Tropeano who is nothing special, but his game might play decently in the Oakland ballpark as he does not usually issue many walks, and has good numbers against right-handed bats (Oakland only has a couple left-bats in their lineup).
Angels faced Montas back on May 31 and only collected 3 hits over his 6 innings pitched. But Montas generally only goes about 6 innings when he starts, and the Oakland bullpen has been used more in recent games than the Angels bullpen. Also, the Angels bats might show signs of waking up lately, plating 7 runs on Sunday and then 5 runs yesterday. Their lineup actually looks more interesting with both Andrelton Simmons and Zack Cozart out. If they can get on base, I think a running game would play tonight with Trout and possibly Luis Rengifo batting in the 8-spot tonight.
Results: May 25,26,28 = -10.08 units (4-7 W/L)
OVERALL: -22.55 units (38-49-3 W/L/D)
Record up to date now. That loss on Sunday night baseball was rough, when St.Louis was up 3-0 score in the top of 9th and their closer proceeded to blow the game, couldn't get an out. My Over pick was toast in that game, but had the Cardinals won the game would have been a -1.12 unit loss for me, instead of the -8.04 units loss it became.
So thread low point was end of Sunday at -23.35 units. Tuesday's picks won +0.80 units net, although went 1-2 W/L
Results: May 31 - June 1 = -0.68 units (2-2-1 W/L/D)
OVERALL: -23.23 units (40-51-4 W/L/D)
Record up to date now.
Monday June 3
ARIZONA +114 first five innings moneyline // 2.50 units to win 2.85
*push if tied at end of five inn.
ARIZONA +1 -110 alternative runline (full game) // 3.30 units to win 3
Dodgers are gonna be a huge favorite tomorrow. I think they could get out to a slow start tonight. Robbie Ray starting for Arizona is almost always an adventure, but many of the big bats for the Dodgers don't have good history against him.
Ray on his game pretty good tonight, but he seems to always have a bad moment. Top 4th inning - Justin Turner (6 for 32 lifetime against Ray coming into this game) reached down and golfed a single with two strikes on him. Then Ray walks Freese, then gets behind in the count to Corey Seager (3 for 24 against Ray) to then give up the 3-run homer on a full-count.
Walker Buehler is on his game even better for the Dodgers, no hits allowed thru 4 innings with 7 strikeouts. Finally gave up a solo-homer with two outs in the bottom 5th.
Results: June 3,4 = -7.80 units (0-4 W/L)
OVERALL: -31.03 units (40-55-4 W/L/D)
I use a 100 unit bankroll for each sport, per season. Last year on baseball I managed to lose almost -100 units. This year seems to be going in the same direction, although I still have plenty of ammunition. How much is 100 units? Depends how much per unit. For me it is big enough to make these losses sting. Final thought, I don't have to continue losing the full bankroll, but I won't go deeper down than -100 units for baseball this year, at that point would be a hard stop for me.
Thursday June 6
UNDER 7.5 +100 WSH@SD // 5 units to win 5
Gotta make up ground somewhere on my losses, so I'm overbetting this under. For Washington to win tonight, I'm guessing the starter Corbin will have to be top notch and go at least 7 innings, to avoid their atrocious bullpen getting too involved in this game 1 of the series. So on the other side, for Lucchesi to win, he'd have to match Corbin's effort. Sounds like captain obvious logic. In short, foresee a pitcher's duel.
Results: June 7 = +1.02 units (2-1 W/L)
OVERALL: -35.01 units (42-57-4 W/L/D)
Angels game not finished yet, Heany just allowed a 3-run homer on 0-2 pitch to the 8th man in the order, making the score 5-1 Seattle. Meantime Angels have one hit so far against lefty starter Marco Gonzales, a solo shot from Kole Calhoun. Not seeing a comeback on the horizon. Parlay counts as just one win or loss in my record, as always.
Side note, I was very tempted to fade Kershaw going for 6-0 W/L on the season tonight as a huge road favorite -240 in San Francisco, but the Giants are so bad I just couldn't do it. They just went up 2-0 score in the 6th.
Not only did I win all MLB picks last night, the book has a rule where my action still stands on the Suspended (weather) game St.Louis @ NY Mets, because the "game will be resumed the very next day" - I'm not sure if I've seen that rule before, or maybe just forgot....anyone know? Chime in please. I thought the bet was gonna get cancelled.
Regardless bet still stands, and now Cardinals just did get that win in extra innings on the resumed game. Bet paid in my account.
Record improving here on a hot streak 9-1 W/L in the past 3 days. Still working out of a sizeable deficit, but can start making ground up pretty quick by picking winners....what a concept!
Results: June 13 = +11.06 units (5-0 W/L)
OVERALL: -16.85 units (53-62-4 W/L/D)
3-2 W/L last night for +0.93 units on a big comeback by the Padres in the 9th and then extra innings. Lessened the sting of Phillies blowing their big lead.
All of my late night leans woulda lost!
However I don't think Padres got it tonight, and I'm laying the big juice on the Rockies.
Results: June 14, 15 = +8.93 units (5-2 W/L)
OVERALL: -7.92 units (58-64-4 W/L/D)
This week, didn't play Monday, so since Tuesday June 11:
14-3 W/L for +27.91 units
Overall record doesn't look impressive at all, but feeling great to work out of the depths as we are almost to the halfway point of the regular season (most teams at 70 games played, of the total 162). Almost back even. And remember what I said in the first posts of thread - when I can stay in the black, I will have some plays that are higher than the 5 unit plays, this will come in the form of double-up tries (rather than chasing losses).
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