[Newbie1]

I am fairly new to betting and I discovered SDQL after reading on these forums.
It seems there has been a trend in MLB this past 5 seasons and I am wondering if I am reading into it correctly.

If one bet strictly on -175 favorites or better the past few seasons it would have been very profitable (especially last season ($10985).
Im assuming this means (in SDQL) if the line is -200, then one bets $200 to win $100?

Here is the output from the past 3 seasons: -175 line seems to be the sweet spot

Season > 2015 and line <= -175

SU:	1267-496 (2.08, 71.9%)	avg line: -215.8 / 195.5	on / against: +$22,461 / -$31,910	ROI: +5.9% / -18.1%

Where exactly are these lines that SDQL uses being taken from?

What am I missing?

[gojetsgomoxies]

LOL, this EXACT ANGLE is what got me back into this forum... i think DanShan posted this angle... so you and i see the same thing. it looks like free money

i use >2013 and line <-170 (and maybe split home/away on slightly different lines)

i wonder the same thing. is the data good?................. there is a google group for sports database where they answer alot of technical questions...

[gojetsgomoxies]

i would add "why didn't this work before 2013 or 2015?".... game evolved so much into power batting that dominant pitchers completely shut it down??. whereas in the older type game, you could manufacture runs against a dominant pitcher.

this is very consistent with the basic idea....... but i also wondered about good pitchers for bad teams, and vice-versa

[gojetsgomoxies]

OP, a couple of other things,

i've tested this "10 ways to sunday" and it's basically bullet-proof back to and including 2014... BUT, it was so good last year because baltimore was so bad. i think. (i'll have to re-check that)

why don't you and i and perhaps others just do data verification randomly on some of the past data in SPDL? like 20 games each, nothing onerous.

[gojetsgomoxies]

i was wrong.. the orioles were brilliant to fade in this situation....... but 2 other teams (sorry i forgot which ones, CWS were one) were terrible in this spot too and had lots of betting opportunities

i think baltimore was the worst team in bet in a season for a long long time. counting all bets, like earlier in the season when they had some respect (trumbo, davis, adam jones, machado etc.). but machado got injured, maybe trumbo too. and davis had perhaps the worst season in major league history)

[gojetsgomoxies]

31% ROI fading the orioles last year

[Newbie1]

i was wrong.. the orioles were brilliant to fade in this situation....... but 2 other teams (sorry i forgot which ones, CWS were one) were terrible in this spot too and had lots of betting opportunities

i think baltimore was the worst team in bet in a season for a long long time. counting all bets, like earlier in the season when they had some respect (trumbo, davis, adam jones, machado etc.). but machado got injured, maybe trumbo too. and davis had perhaps the worst season in major league history)

If Baltimore was so bad, it would have been ideal to fade them.. no? Can you explain what you meant? Sorry I cant PM you as I dont have 40 posts.

I want to analyze the data a bit more when I have time. How do you search for specific months (or periods) and teams? Do you know the correct queries?

I believe the change in the ball and the emphasis on power (strikeouts are way up) are partially the reason.

Any idea where SDQL is getting these lines from?

[Newbie1]

I would have assumed the lines would have adjusted after it became obvious the Os were a complete dumpster fire.

[gojetsgomoxies]

I would have assumed the lines would have adjusted after it became obvious the Os were a complete dumpster fire.

yes, i agree........ although you could also argue that most teams with their profile fix these up to get to 37% to 40% win rate on a steady state. orioles didn't. look up chris davis stats at first base (first base, the #1 hitting position) and it'll tell you why.

basically i was wondering if this angle worked so brilliantly last year because the orioles were consistently so bad i.e. they'd be the opposition in large % of the games. BUT THAT IS NOT THE CASE. orioles were great to bet against, but there were 2 others teams that were almost as good.

[gojetsgomoxies]

note that 31% ROI in fading the orioles last year. equates to approx. an 65% point spread ATS record (over 162 games). it's bizarre how powerful that is.

here's the math converting to ATS record........... 65%x(+100)+(35%)*(-100) DIVIDED by 100...

[Newbie1]

I want to break the data down into month and investigate different lines.
When I add month =x to the above query it gives me the data for that month for every year combined rather than the selected month.

Do you know the correct query to do this?

[gojetsgomoxies]

Newbie......... if you just put in "and month", it will break it down by month for you. basically you are leaving the month field empty

i've done all kinds of slicing and dicing and this has been completely bullet-proof the last few years. maybe even back to (and including) 2014.

you are on the right track in your thinking.

another trick is this: use this................... line <-110,-140,-170,-200........ that will give you splits, unfortunately the records will be cumulative so you have to do some basic arithmatic.

"and site" would give you home, away, neutral..........."and team", "and division" etc. etc... you get the idea.........

the only thing i know you will need to do is adjust the line for home/away and probably adjust line for september. maybe april too. but these are pretty minor and make logical sense.

[gojetsgomoxies]

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

season > 2015 and line < -170 and ...

games	SU W - L (marg, %win)	Avg Line	o:Avg Line	$ On	$ Against	On Invested	Against Invested	SDQL
7	5-2 (2.71, 71.4%)	-220.7	198.3	$0	-$50	1545.0	700.0	month = 3
223	156-67 (1.70, 70.0%)	-209.3	190.2	+$1,807	-$2,994	46679.0	22300.0	month = 4
263	195-68 (2.41, 74.1%)	-208.1	189.2	+$5,967	-$7,117	54720.0	26300.0	month = 5
259	182-77 (1.91, 70.3%)	-215.5	195.4	+$1,882	-$3,392	55811.0	25900.0	month = 6
286	204-82 (2.10, 71.3%)	-218.4	197.9	+$2,433	-$4,169	62473.0	28600.0	month = 7
354	258-96 (2.18, 72.9%)	-214.2	194.4	+$6,044	-$7,792	75834.0	35400.0	month = 8
368	263-105 (2.02, 71.5%)	-222.4	200.8	+$3,959	-$5,987	81828.0	36800.0	month = 9
32	23-9 (1.34, 71.9%)	-203.2	185.0	+$550	-$690	6502.0	3200.0	month = 10

[gojetsgomoxies]

maybe you don't need any adjustments.....

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

season = 2018 and line < -170 and ...

games	SU W - L (marg, %win)	Avg Line	o:Avg Line	$ On	$ Against	On Invested	Against Invested	SDQL
68	54-14 (2.53, 79.4%)	-231.7	206.8	+$2,253	-$2,586	15754.0	6800.0	o:Orioles
66	49-17 (2.30, 74.2%)	-225.6	202.9	+$1,145	-$1,513	14890.0	6600.0	o:Marlins
62	46-16 (2.73, 74.2%)	-229.7	205.7	+$1,233	-$1,556	14242.0	6200.0	o:White Sox
61	47-14 (2.10, 77.0%)	-239.3	213.4	+$1,288	-$1,651	14597.0	6100.0	o:Royals
56	42-14 (2.21, 75.0%)	-233.8	208.2	+$1,080	-$1,403	13090.0	5600.0	o:Tigers
50	38-12 (2.56, 76.0%)	-217.8	196.6	+$980	-$1,288	10888.0	5000.0	o:Rangers
40	29-11 (2.45, 72.5%)	-219.9	197.5	+$570	-$796	8795.0	4000.0	o:Padres
33	25-8 (2.94, 75.8%)	-204.7	185.7	+$945	-$1,078	6755.0	3300.0	o:Reds
33	23-10 (1.76, 69.7%)	-221.6	199.1	+$214	-$416	7313.0	3300.0	o:Blue Jays
29	17-12 (0.90, 58.6%)	-221.4	199.0	-$770	+$550	6420.0	2900.0	o:Rays
28	22-6 (2.57, 78.6%)	-212.8	192.6	+$835	-$978	5959.0	2800.0	o:Giants
26	18-8 (1.85, 69.2%)	-215.0	194.5	+$220	-$351	5590.0	2600.0	o:Twins
23	13-10 (1.04, 56.5%)	-206.7	186.9	-$695	+$519	4755.0	2300.0	o:Athletics
19	15-4 (2.47, 78.9%)	-217.7	195.7	+$665	-$743	4137.0	1900.0	o:Angels
16	10-6 (0.94, 62.5%)	-203.1	183.2	-$215	+$92	3250.0	1600.0	o:Braves
16	11-5 (1.50, 68.8%)	-199.1	181.7	+$75	-$180	3185.0	1600.0	o:Mariners
16	9-7 (1.00, 56.2%)	-204.7	186.2	-$515	+$395	3275.0	1600.0	o:Mets
15	8-7 (0.40, 53.3%)	-195.8	179.1	-$527	+$416	2937.0	1500.0	o:Rockies
13	9-4 (2.15, 69.2%)	-189.8	175.3	+$153	-$203	2467.0	1300.0	oiamondbacks
12	10-2 (3.58, 83.3%)	-210.0	189.2	+$545	-$590	2520.0	1200.0	o:Pirates
9	8-1 (4.44, 88.9%)	-192.4	175.3	+$590	-$615	1732.0	900.0	o:Phillies
6	6-0 (4.17, 100.0%)	-193.3	175.7	+$600	-$600	1160.0	600.0	o:Brewers
6	4-2 (1.67, 66.7%)	-191.2	174.8	+$30	-$56	1147.0	600.0	o:Red Sox
4	2-2 (-0.50, 50.0%)	-182.5	168.8	-$155	+$130	730.0	400.0	o:Cardinals
3	3-0 (5.33, 100.0%)	-191.7	175.7	+$300	-$300	575.0	300.0	o:Nationals
2	2-0 (4.00, 100.0%)	-205.0	185.0	+$200	-$200	410.0	200.0	o:Indians
2	1-1 (1.50, 50.0%)	-187.5	172.5	-$100	+$80	375.0	200.0	oodgers
2	1-1 (0.50, 50.0%)	-187.5	172.5	-$75	+$65	375.0	200.0	o:Cubs
1	1-0 (2.00, 100.0%)	-190.0	175.0	+$100	-$100	190.0	100.0	o:Astros
1	1-0 (1.00, 100.0%)	-175.0	165.0	+$100	-$100	175.0	100.0	o:Yankees

Showing 1 to 30 of 30 entries

[gojetsgomoxies]

something we could definitely look into............ have the best and worst teams become more extreme the last few seasons? have dominant pitchers become more dominant? more dominant pitchers too?. and i guess you could also check for whether worst hitting teams have been very very bad (by historical standards) the last few years.

[Newbie1]

something we could definitely look into............ have the best and worst teams become more extreme the last few seasons? have dominant pitchers become more dominant? more dominant pitchers too?. and i guess you could also check for whether worst hitting teams have been very very bad (by historical standards) the last few years.

Maybe with the current model in sports of teams rebuilding to win, that might support the theory that the worse teams have gotten worse, ill look into that.

I want to get more granular on the data. I suspect rather than use lines less than -175 it might be better to use a range instead.

[Newbie1]

If I just copy and paste from SDQL do those tables just show up like that?
What about from Excel?

[gojetsgomoxies]

yes, all i did was copy and paste...... i wondered the same thing myself

fyi, you probably know this but ctr-A, ctr-C, ctr-v.......... or command instead of ctr...

probably the only real adjustments is home/away. basically not that many big road faves. and as i said, april and september but not really necessary is my feel

[Newbie1]

Ok so I looked at the past 10 seasons. I was expecting to see the extreme in runs scored between the top and bottom teams grow as profit betting the favorites went up. I found no correlation between the two. Note I did not split the data into the different leagues, nor did I look at runs allowed. Would have taken too long. im not sure it would make much difference as runs allowed by the bottom teams are likely highly correlated with runs scored by the top teams anyway.

	Average Runs per Team	Standard Dev of Runs	Average Runs for Top 5	Average Runs for Bottom 5	Run difference between avg top and bottom	Units won betting on a line of -175 or less
2018	721	73.77	832.4	612.2	220.2	109.85
2017	752.7	64.1	843.8	658.8	185	77.42
2016	724.8	58.77	817.4	647.6	169.8	37.34
2015	688.23	57.77	778.2	614.8	163.4	28.65
2014	658.7	55.29	747.4	585.8	161.6	37.75
2013	675.17	71.29	788.8	586.6	202.2	-10.64
2012	700.57	57.07	784	612.2	171.8	8.8
2011	693.6	81.1	829.2	588.8	240.4	-22.7
2010	710.27	74.79	811.2	594	217.2	-7.6
2009	747.3	73.29	861.4	642.8	218.6	-22.6

Look at 09-11, about 225 run difference between average top 5 and bottom teams in runs scored

[Newbie1]

It looks as though the lines have been adjusting but the heavy favorites are simply winning a larger % of games.

	Average line	Units won betting on a line of -175 or less
2018	-220.2	109.85
2017	-214.9	77.42
2016	-210.7	37.34
2015	-204.6	28.65
2014	-200	37.75
2013	-208.4	-10.64
2012	-204.1	8.8
2011	-203	-22.7
2010	-211	-7.6
2009	-213	-22.6

[Newbie1]

	Average line	Units won betting on a line of -175 or less	Average Team runs in -175 or less games	Average Opp runs in -175 games	Difference
2018	-220.2	109.85	5.61	3.4	2.21
2017	-214.9	77.42	5.75	3.66	2.09
2016	-210.7	37.34	5.45	3.57	1.88
2015	-204.6	28.65	5.05	3.4	1.65
2014	-200	37.75	4.79	3.13	1.66
2013	-208.4	-10.64	4.71	3.33	1.38
2012	-204.1	8.8	5.04	3.49	1.55
2011	-203	-22.7	5.07	3.64	1.43
2010	-211	-7.6	5.16	3.69	1.47
2009	-213	-22.6	5.39	3.87	1.52

Comparing 09-11 to 16-18 it looks like heavy favorites have slightly decreased their runs allowed per game, despite the slight increase in overall runs. The favorite has significantly increased run production in those later years.
I would venture a guess that the increase in strikeouts, pitchers getting yanked earlier and the increase in bullpen effectiveness has allowed elite highly favored teams to win at about a ~5% higher rate in these games than in the past.

[Newbie1]

I guess the question is should I stop wasting time analyzing more data, hope this trend continues and just bet. lol

[gojetsgomoxies]

Newbie, i think you should just start analyzing the games this season. and definitely don't start thinking of using different moneyline by league and month etc.....

seems like this is very real...... and hopefully it continues...... and you can probably do even better figuring out things like good pitchers on bad teams and bad pitchers on good teams.

i think there were alot of terrible teams last year....... and other years before that, there were at times some very high winning %'s... BUT, it seems to have worked really really well since 2013.

day vs. night looked interesting too. i think the pitchers were more dominant in the day. i would think it would be opposite..... also, maybe look at LH vs RH starting pitcher... can't remember the neumonics though.

[gojetsgomoxies]

didn't work first weekend. although that's tiny data set.

also, i wouldn't play those NYY -340ish lines no matter what. wouldn't necessarily go the other way. NO PLAY was fine. baltimore was horrible last year BUT it's a brand-new season. i know that's 100% hindsight.

[gojetsgomoxies]

without the insane NYY-baltimore ML, this was a decent winner first weekend. +13% ROI

i realize any system's a winner if you exclude its biggest losses.

[Newbie1]

So only 13 games in and the -175 favs or better have been getting clobbered. 5-8 on the year and from my calculation -$1310 already.
The Orioles have won 3 games being the heavy dog.
Good thing I decided to wait a few weeks..

[gojetsgomoxies]

So only 13 games in and the -175 favs or better have been getting clobbered. 5-8 on the year and from my calculation -$1310 already.
The Orioles have won 3 games being the heavy dog.
Good thing I decided to wait a few weeks..

terrible terrible night tonight for this strategy (which i like)....

even though it seems like this strategy has worked the last few years in april, my first instinct would have been not to play it very early on (although admittedly i didn't expect it to be this bad so far).

i think it's premised on some combo of good teams/pitchers being really good, and vice-versa. and it's been the complete opposite so far.

i saw another thread saying the orioles would continue being "free money" this year. i thought that idea was crazy. i mean, it's a brand new season with all the mental scar tissue having healed. basically, from a statistically point of view, a new season is a big data break.

i think i would stick with the idea but wait awhile.......... i will add one more data piece. i remember looking at last year and seeing that while orioles were bad that a few others contributed to this being a big winner. on the flip side, it seemed like the red sox accounted for a large % of this strategy's high ROI last year. now, that doesn't sound like it makes sense mathematically, but there is a large gulf between giant losses tailing losers last year and the impressive gains from fading the same losers last year (namely the juice)

[gojetsgomoxies]

Newbie, BTW i never thanked for that work you did on runs scored and runs allowed by heavy favourites. it was very interesting.

my first instinct was that alot of this had to do with either TAILing dominant pitchers or FADing terrible hitting teams

but it seems your analysis suggests more good teams pounding on diluted pitching talent in majors. or something like that (not sure i said that right or necessarily understand the phenomenon)

are dominant pitchers less valuable these days because they are quite restricted on pitch counts?... i'm old enough to remember billy martin killed talented young pitchers with high pitch counts - matt keough, mike norris. although billy wasn't that unique, just a bit more extreme.

[gojetsgomoxies]

semi-repetitive, but with more detail.......... this strategy went 1-5 tonight.......... yikes

[gojetsgomoxies]

yet another extremely day for this system.

let's keep watching it..........

this system is doing terribly........ of course the entire baseball standings seem completely flipped from recent seasons so far.

[2daBank]

31% ROI fading the orioles last year

Have you seen the prices against them so far this year? I don’t care how bad they turn out being there no chance you get anywhere close to that number again imo.

[gojetsgomoxies]

Have you seen the prices against them so far this year? I don’t care how bad they turn out being there no chance you get anywhere close to that number again imo.

orioles have been 160% positive ROI so far this year. almost tripling your money............ the prices on the orioles were amazing opening up against the yankees this year. but then baltimore won 2 of 3 in new york

i liked and like the general idea of this strategy........ but baltimore was going to win alot more than 29% of their games no matter what this season. and i definitely expected there would be new teams to fade this year and there still may be.

there were a bunch of teams that funded the amazing returns of this strategy last year, not just baltimore ... boston being amazing good helped the strategy too.

some excellent pitchers and teams have had very rough starts to the year

[gojetsgomoxies]

2DaBank, i think i misinterpreted your comment.. yes, those orioles opening weekend lines in NYC were insane. in fact, 2 of the games were bigger odds than all but one game last year when the orioles won 29% of their games.

i think it partially shows that it's much better to jump on things in-season......... new season is brand new start for everyone, AND, posters spend the entire off-season with lots of time to look into winning strategies and analyze data. much better if you can glean things more as they happen.

[2daBank]

2DaBank, i think i misinterpreted your comment.. yes, those orioles opening weekend lines in NYC were insane. in fact, 2 of the games were bigger odds than all but one game last year when the orioles won 29% of their games.

i think it partially shows that it's much better to jump on things in-season......... new season is brand new start for everyone, AND, posters spend the entire off-season with lots of time to look into winning strategies and analyze data. much better if you can glean things more as they happen.

That interesting Os were only bigger dogs once all last season than the opening yanks series which pretty much speaks to what I’m saying. Even the Toronto series they were crazy, There no chance that dog shit lineup jays putting out daily should be -170 or more ever imo.

Obviously O’s are gonna lose a whole bunch of games, i honestly don’t know shit about enough their everyday players to say whether it be more or less than last season? I’d assume it probably won’t be more, that hard to do! I do think it pretty obvious based off last year, perception of how bad they are, and these crazy early season prices I never recall seeing right out the gates! there no chance books gonna make fading them a good idea.

It was never gonna be a option for me anyways. What I love about baseball is how unique it is that everyday you can find plus money teams that easily have a better chance of winning than the odds suggest.

Or to put it another way, there no chance I can hit the percentage it takes to come out ahead laying even -140, forget about -170/180/-200! Sure my win percentage be higher playing favs of that size but not high enough to profit. On the other hand for years I been able to hang right around 50% w dogs and plus money totals which obviously is more than enough to do well. Dog of day thread is already 10 games below .500 but +10u on the season.

[gojetsgomoxies]

2DaBank,

backing significant favorites has been a big winner the last few years. the whole point of this thread. certainly there are so many games that an underdog selective strategy can be a winner. and moderate favorites weren't a winner the last few years.

i think baltimore could field a team made up of career minor leaguers and not do much worse than last year. they were the worst team in the majors by far in one run games. their winning % fell well short of their on-field stats........ very very obvious they'd bounce this season. but more of a 7-8 game bounce for whole season. not taking series from yanks in NYC

mancini and dwight smith are good players. and playing like it..... some young pitching talent........... if there's one pet peeve i have with preview magazines is they seem to just describe the past. i want to know what can be different from past. and i think these magazines are way too aggressive about giving up on very high draft picks.