[babaoriley]

When I get PM's like this (below) from someone who just joined the forum TODAY, it really pisses me off. I haven't gotten a single PM in almost a year, and today I have three.

I saw some posts where you wanted one of the handicappers to modify his unit system to use a lower number of units.

Instead of arguing about the unit system, just lower your bet size per unit. I am giving you a risk management formula for calculating the optimal dollar amount per unit for your size bank.

Reducing the unit ratings by a factor of 4 won't work. The unit ratings are what they are for a reason. This is like the 3rd or 4th post where you waste everyone's time arguing about this. Lower your bet size per unit if you don't have the stomach for making big bets. I don't know what your bank is, but you should size your bets to be (Bank X 1% / 10) per unit. This makes a 10 unit pick your "standard" bet at 1% of your bank. You could never go broke betting this way. If your bank goes down you lower your bet size per unit. If your bank goes up you increase your bet size per unit. Example. If your bank is $2,000 then your bet size per unit would be $2,000 X 1% / 10 which is $20/10 or $2. So, on a 10 unit game you would bet $20, or 1% of your bank. The big unit plays would be more than 1% of your bank but the likelihood of winning is much higher so that is okay. Under no circumstances ever bet more than 5% of your bank on any one game. Do a search on "kelly criterion" for an in-depth explanation of this betting strategy. It is a risk management strategy. You size your bets based on the amount of risk you are willing to take. My risk tolerance is zero which is why I use 1% of the bank divided by 10 as the unit size. If you want to private message me and give me your bank size I will tell you what your betting unit should be.

You wouldn't be betting 7 units on the yankees, you would be betting to win 7 units, which at the currently stated odds would be risking 16.2 units to win 7 units.

For lines that are above 0 you risk the number of units. For lines that are below zero you bet to win that number of units, which means you have to risk more units than you want to win. If you don't do this you won't be successful because the big favorites win so much more often your winnings won't make up for the dogs and the small favorites when these lose.

I'll give you an easy way to calculate your dollar amount per unit for your bank:
Bank dollar per unit
$100 10 cents
$500 50 cents
$1,000 $1
$5,000 $5
$10,000 $10
> $10,000 Bank X 1% / 10


BABA's REPLY
I'm NOT wasting everyone's time, in fact, my proposed structure was flawless. Listen strictlywinners, when you join a board and post under aliases, or have lackeys coming around who mysteriously joined the day of all the drama and you have them do your speaking for you, and you come at me with this shit, then your PM becomes public info, buddy. My unit structure kept the same ratios from your original unit structure. It just doesn't inflate winnings so much so that you can say "I'm up 100 units" when nobody who follows you is playing the damn Yankee game for 70 units (as you are today) It is THE EXACT SAME THING. I proposed a unit structure based on 4, thus you can have bets ranging in .25 unit increments. It's not rocket science to deduct that that is the exact same process as actually lowering your per unit structure. For the sake of ease, let's say you have a player playing $100 a unit (nice round number). Well, are they going to want to bet $7,000 on the Yankees to win $2,800??? Probably not, so they reduce the size oif their unit to $10 (another nice round number) and bet $700 to win $280. Well, that is the exact same thing as lowering your "28" unit factor to 7. The $100 player now plays 7 units ($700) to win 2.8 ($280) (on the -250 Yankee line). Don't talk to me about risk management. I have a damn MBA and am perfectly capable of adjusting any financial ratios I need adjusted. I have a perfect risk-management structure and a portfolio geared around my wagering "business", taking into account the various ebbs and flows of the gaming industry, providing steady streams of cash flows, and overall providing myself and my family a nice safety net, should I decide to "go all in" (which I won't) and lose my bankroll. I know how much I can bet, how much i should bet, etc. The idea of having such large unit sizes is to inflate the totals so that one can say "I'm up 100 units" when in reality, if they were playing with a more realistic unit structure, they could say, I'm up 25 units. The point is this. By converting all units into a 4=1 (i.e 4 of your units=1 unit) you take away the inflation inherent in having bigger unit numbers. Hell, I could say, put 2500 units on the yankees tonight, then pat myself on the back for being up 1000 units. It's just a simplifying measure that keeps the same ratios you have listed and performs the same basic functions. The math is the same, but instead of lowering the size of your unit, you are lowering the overall unit structure to a more manageable number. The $1,000 player can play his $7,000 on the Yankees to win $2,800. The $100 player can play his $700 to win $280 and the $10 player can play his $70 to win $28. It's the same exact math. Don't go PM'ing me under aliases or with lackeys, trying to tell me that this isn't the exact same math when I know for certain that it is. It's called SCALING your unit system. It doesn't change a thing mathematically, though it takes away the obnoxiousness of having someone telling me to bet 70 units to win 28 when I know for a fact that I'm scaling that down. Same math, same ratios, same thing as paring down your unit size, but much more manageable. There ya go. Have at it.

[babaoriley]

And by "SBR Rookies/Disciples" I mean strictlywinners and his various aliases, lackeys. I'm all for you coming on, posting your bets, etc. but quit with the alias crap. It hurts your credibility.

[ShamsWoof10]

hahahahahaha I can see where you would be quite irritated by that PM and ESPECIALLY THREE of those...

[babaoriley]

I'm pissed. I got two others from some dude named Jamez who had a grand total of 35 posts, trying to explain how strictlywinners unit structure worked. Again, I'm all for people posting picks, keeping track of winners, hell, if someone wants to use a system where you bet 70 units to win 28 on the Yankees, then that's just fine with me. I'll scale down the entire unit system in my head. I was trying to be helpful, as I don't know many legit people who bet 188 units/day in mid July on baseball games. Scale it down by a factor of 4 and it is a more manageable, though still ludicrous 47 units/day with the same ratios. Rather than forcing everyone to lower their unit size, scale down the unit structure to make it more playable. Either way, it was nonsense stuff and I don't like getting 3 PM's from people who know nothing about me and I've never heard of, including one jackass who is an obvious lackey or alias of strictlywinners. If he joined today, how is it that he can say "you've wasted everyone's time in several posts". Really? You went back and read the archives after joining today? Jeez.

[isetcap]

It IS rather surprising that we have a WEALTH of sub-50 post geniuses coming in to tell us how miraculous and absolute this "system" is. Drop all the hype, kids.