It’s been a long time since I’ve posted anything, but I feel compelled to give my 2 cents on this game. (I’m sorry that I didn’t come on to share my prop bet and explanation before yesterday’s game of Joc Peterson to hit a HR at +$505 yesterday, so I wanted to share my input for today).

Clayton Kershaw’s postseason struggles are well documented and I believe they are a real thing. I don’t expect Kershaw to get lit up (especially given that several of Atlanta’s best hitters are from the left side), but I do expect a more inefficient Kershaw who throws a lot of pitches, gives up 3-4 runs, and struggles to get through 6 innings. I believe Anibal Sanchez, in my humble opinion, is well-equipped for this stage in a game that is as close to a must-win game as it gets in a non-elimination game - on the road at Dodger Stadium. In fact, I’m not sure that I could name 10 other pitchers that I’d rather have take the ball in a game like this. Not saying he’s a top 10 pitcher, but I am referring to the fact that this moment isn’t too big for Sanchez.

Baseball is a funny game and for that reason, this is not a lock by any stretch. However, I believe the percentages are in your favor to take a shot on Atlanta at +$200 ML and +1.5 -115 RL. I would wait until just before first pitch, however. I think you may get the Braves at closer to +$225 and +1.5 at even money or better. I feel like 65-70% of the time, the Braves cover the +1.5 in this game.

I can’t find any odds for this prop yet, but depending on the odds, it may be worth a stab to take Ronald Acuna to hit a HR in today’s game.