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July 14 Ganchalysis
White Sox/Baltimore over (8.5 -120): As feeble as these offenses may be, the pitching involved tonight may give away enough runs to get this game over on its own.
Daniel Cabrera of course has all kinds of control problems, and if he has them again tonight, the White Sox should eventually be able to put some runs on the board.
On the other side, Javier Vazquez can be very good, but he also has a high degree of volatility, and when he is off, any American League lineup can take advantage.
If both starters manage to have good starts, the bullpens and defenses involved will keep an over bet live, as they routinely implode and yield multiple late-innings runs.
Pittsburgh/Atlanta under (9 -125): Pittsburgh has their top starter going here in Gorzelanny, and Chuck James is usually good at home against weaker lineups. Turner is a pitcher-friendly park, and with 2 starters going with good combined upside, and 2 bullpens that are reasonable, this game will need to push things to get into double digits in scoring, conferring value to the under IMO.
Oakland/Minnesota over (9 +100): Both starters could be vulnerable here, each susceptible to an implosion, which if that were to happen, would make a loss on an over bet unlikely.
Furthermore, each starter will likely not be able to shut down the opposing offense in every inning, and each is likely to leave having given up 3 or 4 runs. Because of that, a 4-4 push on the over 9 is more likely than usual, conferring value to an over bet IMO.
Neither lineup is terribly fearsome, but they both have multiple legitimate power hitters, and the runs should come in at a steady pace.
Washington/Florida over (9 -115): Washington gets a nice offensive boost when they go on the road, especially to places where the ball can carry as it can at Florida.
Both starters have been good at times this year, but also were probably overachieving when they were.
Florida home games have trended strongly to the over this year, and that is not incidental IMO. This game, with 2 starters who don't bring anything particularly special to the table, and a reasonable line of 9, offers similar circumstances to games that have gone over here all year long, and I think the over should have value again tonight.
Colorado/Milwaukee over (8.5 -110): This line is a bit low IMO because Sheets is starting, and because Rodrigo Lopez has at times been good this year.
But Lopez is likely to be vulnerable here, facing the lively Milwaukee lineup. And unless Sheets has dominating stuff tonight (always a possibility of course), Colorado will be able to take advantage of his mistakes.
After the starters, the bullpens have proven to be hittable, and will offer the opportunity for more scoring if it's needed to get over. If Lopez has an implosion which he has been given to his entire career, Milwaukee could get to 9 all by themselves.
All in all, I think the over has solid value in this game.
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