D-Backs good dogs to bet in desert
Game Time: 07/14/2007 09:40 PM -
By: John Ryan | 10starpicks.com
The Diamondbacks have several trends in their favor tonight at home. Side with Arizona and Livan Hernandez this evening when they host Jake Peavy and the San Diego Padres.
Three trends support this graded play starting with a system that has gone 142-117 over the past five seasons: Play against any team with a hot starting pitcher sporting an ERA less than 2.50 over his last three starts and facing an opponent with a cold starting pitcher sporting an ERA of 7.00 or higher over his last five starts.
Here is the second system that has gone 238-164 and has made 63.1 units since 2001: Play on NL home teams with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.550 to 1.650 on the season. Here is the third system that has gone 43-11 and has made 23.8 units since 2001: Play on NL home teams in July when the moneyline is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.550 to 1.650 on the season.
Arizona starter Livan Hernandez is 10-3 when starting against San Diego with an ERA of 3.77 and a WHIP of 1.342. The Padres are 2-10 (-9.6 Units) against the moneyline vs teams that strand 6.9 or fewer runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. Take Arizona.
Free Pick: Diamondbacks +122